Description du projet
La modélisation pour mieux comprendre et prédire la demande énergétique des ménages
Les modèles de système énergétique (MSE) permettent aux experts en énergie de prédire et de décrire les répercussions à long terme des systèmes énergétiques. Alors que les MSE ont produit des résultats utiles concernant l’approvisionnement énergétique, il existe un manque de précision dans la simulation du secteur résidentiel, car la diversité des habitations génère un vaste éventail de modes de consommation. Pour résoudre ce problème, le projet WHY, financé par l’UE, mettra en place une modélisation causale pour analyser de manière quantitative les décisions quotidiennes des personnes concernant la consommation d’énergie et leurs réactions aux interventions. Cela aboutira à des méthodologies innovantes pour la prévision de la charge à court et long terme, qui seront comparées dans le cadre de différents cas d’utilisation allant de l’échelle du microréseau à des milieux internationaux. Le projet permettra de mieux comprendre la consommation énergétique des ménages et d’améliorer la modélisation de la demande énergétique au sein des principaux MSE.
Objectif
In order to mitigate climate change effects, urgent action is required in all sectors of the economy to significantly reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emission. Energy System Models (ESM) are tools that help energy analysts, planners and policy makers to rationally describe energy systems and systematically evaluate the impacts of long-term scenarios. On the supply side, ESMs have provided useful results, but however, on the demand side, they lack the degree of accuracy required for proper characterization of, among others, the use of energy in households. One of the intrinsic difficulties is that energy demand in the residential sector is influenced by a myriad of factors (like the high diversity of dwellings, socio-economic conditions of the social/family units, and behavioral-related consumption patterns) that cannot easily be accounted for in traditional ESMs.
To overcome this challenge, the novel Causal Modeling will be used to quantitatively analyse human decision making in energy consumption and their reactions to interventions (e.g. policy changes). This will be combined with an innovative FFORMA approach which allows multiple
different load profiles to be categorised by a set of vectors describing it. WHY will therefore create innovative methodologies for short and long term load forecasting. The WHY modeling will allow to directly assess the impact of a multitude of policies on the energy system as well as performing both ex-ante and ex-post assessment over policy measures. WHY will therefore contribute to a holistic understanding of household energy consumption and improved demand modelling.
The WHY toolkit will be used to assess several scenarios simulating different policy measures. Integration with widely-used ESMs (PRIMES, TIMES) will be demonstrated and the results analyzed. All results will be open-sourced to maximize uptake, and be widely disseminated to diverse target audiences (i.e. DSOs, energy companies, policy makers, researchers).
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RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinateur
48007 Bilbao
Espagne