Project description
Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change
How, how much, why, when and where are species affected by climate change? The answers to these questions are key to assessing the vulnerability of a species to climate change. This is the first step in developing conservation strategies. The EU-funded VULNERAWEB project aims to improve current forecasts by applying the concepts of thermal death curve (TDC) and voluntary thermal maximum (VTM). TDC represents all possible combinations of temperature and time. VTM represents a temperature objectively identified by organisms as stressful. The findings of preliminary analyses suggest that these tools increase the power of produced forecasts. The project will also create an online platform to guide the collection and curation of relevant data and to engage experts in climatic vulnerability worldwide.
Objective
Reliable Forecasts of species’ Climatic Vulnerability (FCV) are key to attain objectives in the horizon 2020 program. However, the complexity of FCV, and the massive amount of data needed for it, defy current approaches and data availability. State-of-the-art forecasts use measures of species’ thermal tolerance and of their ability to avoid overheating environments. Still, these models rely on two central premises. First, that a single combination of temperature and time of exposure will induce population declines. Yet, myriads of combinations of temperature and time of exposure can actually kill the individuals of a population. A second premise is that known parameters of thermal tolerance can identify thermal limits for the geographic distribution of species. Finally, whether these premises are true or not, most species lack the data needed to model their vulnerability to climate change.
During this project, I will apply, for first time, the concepts of the Thermal Death Curve (TDC) and the Voluntary Thermal Maximum (VTM) to improve forecasts. The TDC represents all the potential combinations of temperature and time that causes population damage and the VTM represents a temperature objectively identified by the organisms as stressful. My preliminary analyses have shown that these tools multiply the power of produced forecasts and prevent dramatic biases introduced by more traditional parameters. Secondly, I will test, on a global scale, whether the known limits of animal’s geographic distributions are set by known measures of their thermal tolerance. Finally, to channel global efforts to the collection of the necessary species data and the generation of robust forecast, I will create an online platform to engage experts in climatic vulnerability world-wide through an action-reward system. This web platform will guide the collection and curation of relevant data, and deliver FCV using the best models available and international expert advice
Fields of science
Programme(s)
Funding Scheme
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinator
28006 Madrid
Spain