Descrizione del progetto
Valutazione della vulnerabilità delle specie ai cambiamenti climatici
Come, quanto, perché, quando e dove le specie sono interessate dai cambiamenti climatici? Le risposte a queste domande sono fondamentali per valutare la vulnerabilità di una specie ai cambiamenti climatici, il primo passo per lo sviluppo di strategie di conservazione. Il progetto VULNERAWEB, finanziato dall’UE, intende migliorare le previsioni attuali applicando i concetti di curva di morte termica e di massimo termico volontario. La curva di morte termica rappresenta tutte le possibili combinazioni di temperatura e tempo, mentre il massimo termico volontario rappresenta una temperatura identificata oggettivamente dagli organismi come stressante. I risultati delle analisi preliminari suggeriscono che questi strumenti aumentano la potenza delle previsioni prodotte. Il progetto creerà anche una piattaforma online per guidare la raccolta e il trattamento dei dati rilevanti e coinvolgere esperti in materia di vulnerabilità climatica in tutto il mondo.
Obiettivo
Reliable Forecasts of species’ Climatic Vulnerability (FCV) are key to attain objectives in the horizon 2020 program. However, the complexity of FCV, and the massive amount of data needed for it, defy current approaches and data availability. State-of-the-art forecasts use measures of species’ thermal tolerance and of their ability to avoid overheating environments. Still, these models rely on two central premises. First, that a single combination of temperature and time of exposure will induce population declines. Yet, myriads of combinations of temperature and time of exposure can actually kill the individuals of a population. A second premise is that known parameters of thermal tolerance can identify thermal limits for the geographic distribution of species. Finally, whether these premises are true or not, most species lack the data needed to model their vulnerability to climate change.
During this project, I will apply, for first time, the concepts of the Thermal Death Curve (TDC) and the Voluntary Thermal Maximum (VTM) to improve forecasts. The TDC represents all the potential combinations of temperature and time that causes population damage and the VTM represents a temperature objectively identified by the organisms as stressful. My preliminary analyses have shown that these tools multiply the power of produced forecasts and prevent dramatic biases introduced by more traditional parameters. Secondly, I will test, on a global scale, whether the known limits of animal’s geographic distributions are set by known measures of their thermal tolerance. Finally, to channel global efforts to the collection of the necessary species data and the generation of robust forecast, I will create an online platform to engage experts in climatic vulnerability world-wide through an action-reward system. This web platform will guide the collection and curation of relevant data, and deliver FCV using the best models available and international expert advice
Campo scientifico
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Meccanismo di finanziamento
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinatore
28006 Madrid
Spagna