Multiscales and Critical Transitions in the Earth System

Project Information

CriticalEarth

Grant agreement ID: 956170

DOI

10.3030/956170

Project closed

EC signature date 13 August 2020

Start date 1 March 2021

End date 31 May 2025

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 4 130 035,56

EU contribution

€ 4 130 035,56

Coordinated by

KOBENHAVNS UNIVERSITET
Denmark

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Documents, reports (29)

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR4

D7.7.1.1Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR4

Explore breakdown of timescale separation in coupled models

D5.2Explore breakdown of timescale separation in coupled models

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR13

D7.7.2.4Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR13

Application to benchmark climate system problem

D1.1Application to benchmark climate system problem

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR9

D7.7.6.1Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR9

Ensemble simulations to obtain critical thresholds in full Earth system

D3.1Ensemble simulations to obtain critical thresholds in full Earth system

Example of tipping cascade in EMIC model

D3.2Example of tipping cascade in EMIC model

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR12

D7.7.5.3Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR12

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR1

D7.7.2.1Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR1

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR11

D7.7.3.1Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR11

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR15

D7.7.1.2Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR15

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR14

D7.7.3.2Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR14

Response of TEs to GHG forcing estimated from observations

D4.1Response of TEs to GHG forcing estimated from observations

Extend to high resolution climate models

D5.3Extend to high resolution climate models

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR6

D7.7.2.3Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR6

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR7

D7.7.5.1Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR7

D6.2 Understanding boundaries of validity to response theory

D6.2Understanding boundaries of validity to response theory

Give examples of these linkages in palaeoclimate models

D5.1Give examples of these linkages in palaeoclimate models

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR2

D7.7.4.1Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR2

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR5

D7.7.2.2Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR5

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR10

D7.7.6.2Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR10

Improved estimators of transition rates in climate models

D2.3Improved estimators of transition rates in climate models

Examples distinguishing between oscillatory and forced transitions

D2.1Examples distinguishing between oscillatory and forced transitions

Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR3

D7.7.4.2Year 3 progress report with papers/manuscripts for ESR3

Apply optimal score approach in a complex climate model

D2.4Apply optimal score approach in a complex climate model

Explore differences in Arctic climate response for different states

D2.2Explore differences in Arctic climate response for different states

Identification of EWS for major TEs

D4.2Identification of EWS for major TEs

Improved quantification of stochastic influence in tipping

D1.2Improved quantification of stochastic influence in tipping

Explore role of forcing extremes in climate tipping points

D6.1Explore role of forcing extremes in climate tipping points

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2)

Establish monthly newsletter

D81Establish monthly newsletter

Establish project website

D8.1 Establish project website

Open Research Data Pilot (1)

Data Management Plan approved by SB

D93 Data Management Plan approved by SB

Other (1)

Supervisory Board established

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (34)

Impacts and State‐Dependence of AMOC Weakening in a Warming Climate

Author(s): Katinka Bellomo, Oliver Mehling
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 51, 2024, Page(s) e2023GL107624, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107624

High‑latitude precipitation as a driver of multicentennial variabilityof the AMOC in a climate model of intermediate complexity

Author(s): Oliver Mehling, Katinka Bellomo, Michela Angeloni, Claudia Pasquero, Jost von Hardenberg
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06640-3

Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model

Author(s): Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Boris Sakschewski, Markus Drüke, Lana Blaschke, Maya Ben-Yami, Werner von Bloh, Niklas Boers
Published in: Science of The Total Environment, Issue 947, 2025, Page(s) 174378, ISSN 0048-9697
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174378

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Author(s): Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Published in: Physical Review Research, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 2643-1564
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physrevresearch.6.l042053

Data-driven methods to estimate the committor function in conceptual ocean models

Author(s): Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René M. van Westen, Freddy Bouchet, Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Issue 30, 2023, Page(s) 195-216, ISSN 1607-7946
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/npg-30-195-2023

Reliability of Resilience Estimation based on Multi-Instrument Time Series

Author(s): Taylor Smith; Ruxandra-Maria Zotta; Chris A. Boulton; Timothy M. Lenton; Wouter Dorigo; Niklas Boers
Published in: eISSN: 2190-4987, Issue 1, 2023, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2022-41

Early warning signs for SPDEs with continuous spectrum

Author(s): Paolo Bernuzzi, Antonia Freya Susanne Düx, Christian Kuehn
Published in: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2024, Page(s) 1-40, ISSN 0956-7925
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792524000330

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Author(s): Valerio Lucarini; Vera Melinda Galfi; Jacopo Riboldi; Gabriele Messori
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acab77

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison

Author(s): M. Ben‐Yami, P. Good, L. C. Jackson, M. Crucifix, A. Hu, O. Saenko, D. Swingedouw, N. Boers
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 12, 2024, Page(s) 9, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003959

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Author(s): Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Alexander Robinson, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Marisa Montoya
Published in: Scientific Reports, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth

Author(s): Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jerry Mitrovica
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 17, 2024, Page(s) 5263-5290, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024

A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests

Author(s): Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Lana L. Blaschke, Marina Hirota, Regina R. Rodrigues, Niklas Boers
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 4, 2023, Page(s) 470, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7

On the representation of multiplicative noise in modeling Dansgaard–Oeschger events

Author(s): Kolja Kypke, Peter Ditlevsen
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 466, 2024, Page(s) 134215, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134215

Centennial‐Scale Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP6 Models Shaped by Arctic–North Atlantic Interactions and Sea Ice Biases

Author(s): Oliver Mehling, Katinka Bellomo, Jost von Hardenberg
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 51, 2024, Page(s) e2024GL110791, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl110791

Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum

Author(s): Fuzhi Lu, Huayu Lu, Yao Gu, Pengyu Lin, Zhengyao Lu, Qiong Zhang, Hongyan Zhang, Fan Yang, Xiaoyi Dong, Shuangwen Yi, Deliang Chen, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Maya Ben-Yami, Jennifer V. Mecking
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 16, 2025, Page(s) 477, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w

Bifurcations and Early-Warning Signs for SPDEs with Spatial Heterogeneity

Author(s): Paolo Bernuzzi, Christian Kuehn
Published in: Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations, 2023, ISSN 1040-7294
Publisher: Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2451757/v1

AMOC Stabilization under the Interaction with Tipping Polar Ice Sheets

Author(s): Sacha Sinet; Henk A. Dijkstra; Anna S. von der Heydt
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 50, 2023, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl100305

Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data

Author(s): Maya Ben-Yami, Andreas Morr, Sebastian Bathiany, Niklas Boers
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 10, 2024, Page(s) 31, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841

Contrasting Chaotic and Stochastic Forcing: Tipping Windows and Attractor Crises

Author(s): Peter Ashwin, Julian Newman, Raphael Römer
Published in: SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, Issue 24, 2025, Page(s) 277-316, ISSN 1536-0040
Publisher: Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics
DOI: 10.1137/24m1661534

Multistability in a coupled ocean–atmosphere reduced‐order model: Nonlinear temperature equations

Author(s): Oisín Hamilton, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem, Michel Crucifix
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Issue 149, 2024, Page(s) 3423-3439, ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4564

Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Author(s): Ruth Chapman, Sacha Sinet, Paul D. L. Ritchie
Published in: Weather, Issue 79, 2024, Page(s) 316-323, ISSN 0043-1656
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/wea.7609

FastIsostasy v1.0 – An accelerated regional GIA model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth

Author(s): Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jerry Mitrovica
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue Volume 17; issue 13, 2024, Page(s) 5263-5290, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Geoscientific Model Development
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2869

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Author(s): Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, Page(s) 41-74, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024

Escape by jumps and diffusion by -stable noise across the barrier in a double well potential

Author(s): Ignacio del Amo, Peter Ditlevsen
Published in: Physica D: Non-linear Phenomena, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7787

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Author(s): Oliver Mehling, Reyk Börner, Valerio Lucarini
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 459, 2024, Page(s) 134043, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Warning signs for boundary noise and their application to an ocean Boussinesq model

Author(s): P. Bernuzzi, H.A. Dijkstra, C. Kuehn
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 470, 2024, Page(s) 134391, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134391

AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise

Author(s): Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, Page(s) 859-873, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024

Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Author(s): Jens Fohlmeister, Natasha Sekhon, Andrea Columbu, Guido Vettoretti, Nils Weitzel, Kira Rehfeld, Cristina Veiga-Pires, Maya Ben-Yami, Norbert Marwan, Niklas Boers
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 120, 2023, Page(s) 36, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2302283120

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Author(s): Maya Ben-Yami, Vanessa Skiba, Sebastian Bathiany, Niklas Boers
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 14, 2023, Page(s) 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

TransitionsInTimeseries.jl: A performant, extensibleand reliable software for reproducible detection and prediction oftransitions in timeseries

Author(s): Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, George Datseris
Published in: Journal of Open Source Software, Issue 9, 2024, Page(s) 6464, ISSN 2475-9066
Publisher: The Open Journal
DOI: 10.21105/joss.06464

Resilience of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author(s): Valérian Jacques-Dumas, Henk A. Dijkstra, Christian Kuehn
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 34, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0226410

Estimation of AMOC Transition Probabilities Using a Machine Learning–Based Rare-Event Algorithm

Author(s): Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René M. van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Issue 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-24-0002.1

Spatial Correlation Increase in Single‐Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience

Author(s): Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben‐Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 12, 2025, Page(s) 7, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004040

Limitations of estimating local dimension and extremal index using exceedances in dynamical systems

Author(s): Ignacio del Amo, George Datseris, Mark Holland
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0250492

Other (2)

The effect of timescale separation on the tipping window for chaotically forced systems

Author(s): Raphael Römer, Peter Ashwin
Published in: arXiv, 2025, ISSN 2331-8422
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2504.12530

Chaotic Kramers’ Law: Hasselmanns’ Programm and AMOC Tipping

Author(s): Jakob Deser, Raphael Römer, Niklas Boers, Christian Kuehn
Published in: arXiv, 2025, ISSN 2331-8422
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2505.18904

Thesis and dissertations (1)

Studying extreme climate events using machine learning and rare event algorithms

Author(s): Lovo, Alessandro
Published in: Issue 8, 2024
Publisher: https://hal.science/tel-04904447v1