IN CLOSE COOPERATION WITH THE MEMBER STATES, THE COMMISSION UNDERTOOK THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE HERMES MODEL IN 1981. HERMES REPRESENTS THE NEW GENERATION OF ECONOMIC MODELS WITH ENERGY ORIENTATIONS AND SECTORAL DIMENSION. THE ECONOMY OF EVERY COUNTRY IS DESCRIBED IN 9 PRODUCTION SECTORS, 15 PRIVATE CONSUMPTION GOODS, 5 FOREIGN TRADE COMMODITIES. SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF ENERGY ARE REPRESENTED IN A RELATIVELY DETAILED WAY.
THE HERMES MODEL WILL BE UTILIZED ESPECIALLY FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE INTERFACE BETWEEN ENERGY AND ECONOMY AND FOR THE DETERMINATION OF A COHERENT ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR ENERGY POLICY AND AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR THE ENERGY FORECASTING.
SUCH A MODEL FIND ITS PRINCIPAL APPLICATION AS AN AID TO ENERGY PLANNERS AND POLICY MAKERS IN ILLUSTRATING AND EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES, ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYMENT PROBLEMS, INVESTMENT PROBLEMS, STRUCTURAL CHANGES...
At present the HERMES economic model for Denmark is fully estimated and implemented in the TROLL software on an IBM AT/3700 and the first simulation experiments with the complete model over the estimation period have been performed. However the model has not yet been used for forecasting.
The model is preliminary and multiplicator analyses of forecast experiments have not been performed. For some of the central variables of the model, the simulation results are summarised by the mean absolute present error (MAPE).
- COMPLETION OF ESTIMATIONS
- MODEL WRITING IN A SIMULATION SOFTWARE
- EX-POST SIMULATION
- ANALYTICAL VARIANTS
- TRANSFER TO THE EEC COMPUTER
- UPDATING OF THE DATA BASE.