Objectives and problems to be solved: The GRIDS (Government Regulatory Energy Measures Impact and Diffusion Speed Appraisal Method) project aims to analyse and understand the mechanisms behind the diffusion speed of new and clean technologies and products in the market, taking into account different strategies based on the implementation of energy policies and measures.
Description of work: The project results explicitly address policy makers in order to provide them with a quantitative support for policy planning and evaluation. Moreover, both the initial methodological assumption and the final results of the project will be discussed with a panel of manufacturers, taking into account the industry position and requirements. The goal is to increase the awareness of practitioners and policy makers on problems related to the interaction among energy policies, marketing and production strategies. Assuming that the diffusion speed (i.e. the time needed to reach a given diffusion threshold) of new and clean technologies depends on the combined interaction of: · Rational Use of Energy (RUE) policy scenarios and industry strategies; · market elasticity to price, taking into account the RUE policy effect on consumers and the associated mechanisms of price formation in the industry; · demand side cost/benefit analysis of a given technology price. The analysis will be focused on demand RUE policies and technologies for household electric uses. The research process will be based on the following methodological steps. National RUE policies identification within the framework of the Kyoto implementation mechanisms and corresponding analysis of their interaction with industry strategies. New and clean energy technology identification and description (energy and cost information and detailed technical features).3. Demand scenarios build up: forecast of step by step technology diffusion rate based on a given RUE energy scenario, market elasticity to price and industrial production mark up and volume's. Energy and environmental benefit analysis according to the envisaged diffusion thresholds. Final RUE policy scenarios critical analysis and comparison in conformity with their final energy/environmental effects, and, for a given energy scenario, classification of the new and clean technologies identified as per their combined energy/environmental and diffusion potential. Expected results and exploitation plans: The analysis will be carried out in four EU countries representative of the southern, central, northern and eastern regions (Italy, Germany, Finland and Czech Republic) by means of a quantitative micro/macro and economic/energy approach based on the use of existing bottom up and top down modelling tools. The employed analytic tools will be: - the GRIM model that, conveniently adapted to the national contexts, will allow to investigate the impact on the industrial production value of a given governmental regulatory measure; - macro-economic forecast tools for the description of the dynamics of demand and supply induced by scenario modifications; the MURE energy analysis model with the final aim to evaluate and classify the RUE scenarios in function of their environmental and energy impacts.
The policy impact analysis, carried out with the support of the IAM, achieved a twofold methodological results:
- providing stakeholders (policy makers and manufacturers) with a reliable and validated tool to establish their negotiations on the basis of quantitative and objective as possible assumptions;
- providing a concrete contribution to the international scientific community and the EU on the crucial debate concerning the quantitative appraising of the impact of a given energy policy on energy systems, and the evaluation of new technologies/products diffusion speed among final users.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
120 56 Praha 2