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Studies of ozone distributions based on assimilated satellite measurements

Objetivo



The global ozone distribution has changed considerably over the last decade. Record low global ozone levels have been observed in the last few years with downward trends over much of the globe (WMO 1995). The analysis of changes in the ozone fields has been severely hampered by a lack of consistent data sets. This analysis is particularly important when determining the relative roles of chemistry and dynamics in the observed changes in ozone.
The main goal of this project is to develop the technique of data assimilation to generate a data base with a consistent description of the dynamics and the ozone distribution in the atmosphere. This will be a prime example of a value-added product derived from satellite data. For this purpose we will build an infrastructure for handling real-time ozone data. The data base will be of considerable value for the documentation of the climatology of ozone, for the interpretation of the chemical data from research satellites, and for the development of policy.
Data assimilation is a methodology used successfully in the field of numerical weather prediction to derive, from a limited set of observations, a good, consistent description of the state of the atmosphere. This is a prerequisite for a successful weather forecast.
The atmospheric ozone distribution shows strong fluctuations related to weather systems. The proposed four-dimensional variational data assimilation will make it possible to derive information about the dynamical state of the atmosphere from the ozone observations. This will lead to an improved description of the state of the atmosphere.
We expect that ozone observations from a variety of satellite instruments will become availahle in the near future. An ozone data assimilation procedure provides a wealth of statistics on the quality of the ozone observations. This will allow us to identify problems with the instruments and data algorithms, and help set the user requirements of future satellite instruments. Furthermore the quality of the model forecasts of the ozone content will be monitored. This may lead to insights into the shortcomings in our present understanding of atmospheric processes relevant to ozone. A high quality ozone forecast will also serve as a basis for reliable ultraviolet (UV) sunlight forecasts, an important issue for human health protection.
Before ozone data can be assimilated successfully in a numerical weather prediction model, substantial scientific and technical developments are required, which are detailed in the proposal. At the end of the project we will have developed and validated the basic techniques for performing real-time assimilation of (satellite) ozone data in a weather prediction model. As a part of the development and validation of the new methodology it is proposed to analyse ozone and dynamical variables for two winters when there where intensive ozone measurement campaigns, i. e. the European Commission funded campaigns EASOE (1992) and SESAME (1995).
The participating institutes include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), who currently produces the highest quality medium-range weather forecasts. The other participants include European groups with expertise on either satellite ozone retrievals or methods for assimilation of atmospheric trace gases. A European expert at the moment working at NASA will also contribute to the project.

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Coordinador

ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Aportación de la UE
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Dirección
10,Wilhelminalaan 10
3730 AE DE BILT
Países Bajos

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