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Trend Assessment for Stratospheric Temperature

Objetivo




Objectives :

The precise identification of temperature trends in the
upper troposphere and the stratosphere and the study of
their coherence with the observed ozone trends.


Brief Description of the Research Project :


The thermal structure of the upper troposphere and the
stratosphere are likely to change under the impact of two
types of anthropogenic forcings: the increase of
greenhouse gases and the ozone depletion. Both of them
are expected to have a radiative effect which could
affect the radiative coupling between the stratosphere
and the troposphere, and thus have an effect on the
climate. Due to the very large temperature variability of
the stratosphere, the ongoing studies have not yet led to
any definite and global conclusions.

In order to reach reliable conclusions, one first has to
understand the role of natural and internal forcings in
the observed variability, in order to assess the validity
of the inferred trends. An attempt will be made to
ascribe physical reasons (i.e. greenhouse gases, water
vapour, ozone, volcanoes, QBO, ENSO, solar cycle, SSTs,
tropospheric dynamics...) to the temperature changes.
These responses could then be compared with the
expectations from 3-D models and help to validate the
choice of the physical processes taken into account in
these models.

This project will contribute to the SPARC (Stratospheric
Processes And their Role in Climate) programme. Observed
temperature data produced under this project will be
compared with temperature data produced by other
international collaborators to assess stratospheric
temperature trends over the world. More precisely the
work described in this project will represent the
European contribution to the SPARC-Stratospheric
Temperature Trends Assessment (STTA) Project, to be
carried out on a continuous basis in parallel with the
SPARC Stratospheric Ozone Assessment project, and which
will contribute to the next WMO-UNEP Ozone Depletion
Assessment in 1998. It should be noted that within this
WMP-UNEP effort, the last thorough analysis of the
temperature trends dates from the years 1986-1987 and was
published in the WMP-UNEP Report of 1988, which means
that the analysis was performed at a time when the
satellite data-base was half the length that it is now.
The analysis will also be used to help build up a
stratospheric climatology that is being compiled under
the SPARC Programme.

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Coordinador

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
Aportación de la UE
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Dirección
Route des Gètines
92371 VERRIERES-LE-BUISSON
Francia

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