Most of the national seismic hazard maps in Europe are based on Cornell-like approaches, and the seismotectonic contribution is limited to geometry of the seismogenic zones. Even recent trans-national approaches in the framework of GSHAP initiative, use this technique, without taking any advantage of the already available data on active faulting. The large availability of historical data and the widespread idea that surface faulting was not observable in Europe, led to methodologies based on the use of seismogenic faults being dismissed as unfeasible.
Now, on one hand those methodologies are more and more advanced, with the inclusion of GPS data and modelling of faults interaction. On the other hand, in recent years the search for seismogenic faults has become a widely accepted practice in Mediterranean Europe and very recent advances raise the problem also for Northern European countries.
With this background (that will be analysed in more detail in the next chapter) this project complies with point 18.104.22.168 of the 1996 Environment workprogramme aiming at the following:
Collect all the available information about individual seismogenic faults in Europe and implement a data-base on an public-accessible WWW site. The consultation of this site will be guided according to the usefulness of the data to various interest groups (geologists, seismologists, engineers, civil defence officers).
Study sample areas in order to compare different methodologies for the identification of seismogenic faults (historical data, geomorphology, paleoseismology, geophysical prospecting, geochemical analysis, GPS methods) and assess their different reliability, and then incorporate fault information to create an improved methodology for hazard determination. This will also allow to compare how different techniques developed also in EC projects for active fault identification may lead to fault models that have a different impact and consequences on seismic hazard estimates.
For the sample areas, perform seismic hazard studies using different level of accuracy of fault models (a line in a plane, a plane in space, 3-d structures interacting in time) coupled with different statistical models (stationary and time-dependent) in order to assess the variation both in absolute value and in accuracy of the estimates.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts