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Contenido archivado el 2024-04-30

Long-term regional effects of climate change on european forests: Impact assessment and consequences for carbon budgets

Objetivo



Forests are especially vulnerable to climate change, due to the longevity of trees and the expected climate change within their lifespan. Through its impact on forest growth, climate change will affect both long-term wood supply and carbon sequestration in trees, forest soils and wood products. The central objective of the LTEEF-II project is to assess climate change impacts on European forests with respect to water and carbon fluxes, regional differences, long-term effects, and the overall carbon budget for forests in Europe. The results of this assessment will be used to identify sustainable forest management strategies that account for these impacts, and that maximise carbon sequestration.
Extensive research has been performed over the last decades: 1) determination how climate affects plant physiological processes and forest growth, both by experiments and by process-based models; 2) compilation and analysis of forest inventory data throughout Europe; 3) analysis and use of remote sensing data for NPP studies at a European scale; and
4) down-scaling of climate change prediction to the regional scale. Using results of this, it is now feasible to make future projections of long-term impacts of climate change based on the main forest types in Europe (boreal, temperate, Mediterranean), and to scale up from local to regional, national and European level.
This will be done by:
A. assessment and process-based modelling of the long-term regional impacts of climate change on European forests, and
B. upscaling of such regional responses to the European scale by both forest inventory data and remote sensing data.
The results will include:
1) assessment of likely responses of forest to climate change in the main regions in Europe;
2) quantification of changes in fluxes of carbon and water between vegetation and the atmosphere, in both timing and magnitude;
3) assessment of possibilities of acclimation by means of self-regulating processes of existing forests;
4) identification of response strategies for forest management; 5) assessment of the carbon balance for the forest sector.
The consortium proposing the project consists of 14 groups working throughout Europe within the field of:
1) mechanistic modelling of forests growth,
2) analysing growth and yield based on forest inventories (large scale forestry model), and
3) GIS and remote sensing.
The proposed project directly builds upon a recently finished European project (LTEEF, 1994-1996) in which the potential for existing forest stands to acclimate to changing climatic conditions was analysed. The project has direct links to the ECOCRAFT and EUROFLUX initiatives, and intensive collaboration with these groups is agreed upon.

Ámbito científico (EuroSciVoc)

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Coordinador

Dienst Landbouwkundig Onderzoek
Aportación de la UE
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Dirección

6700 AA Wageningen
Países Bajos

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Participantes (13)

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