Objetivo
THE RESEARCH WILL CONSIST OF :
(1) THE CAREFUL VALIDATION, COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF SEVERAL CROP-GROWTH SIMULATION MODELS FOR PROBLEMS RELATED TO INCREASED CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE. THE INTENTION IS TO USE EXISTING, STATE-OF-THE-ART MODELS. EACH MODEL WILL BE ALTERED SO THAT COMPARABLE RESULTS CAN BE OBTAINED FOR GIVEN INPUT DATA, CROP TYPES AND AGROCLIMATIC REGIONS IN EUROPE. WHERE NECESSARY, FUNCTIONS WILL BE ADDED DESCRIBING THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF CO2 ON PLANT PROCESSES, SUCH AS PRIMARY PHOTOSYNTHESIS, STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE AND PHOTORESPIRATION. THE CAPACITY OF THE MODELS TO PRODUCE VERIFIABLE RESULTS FOR EXTREME CLIMATIC VALUES WILL ALSO BE ASSESSED.
(2) THE ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AS A RESULT OF INCREASING CO2 AND CLIMATIC CHANGE. THIS WILL BE BASED ON THE MODELS DEVELOPED IN TASKS 1 AND 2, IN CONJUNCTION WITH CLIMATE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY TASK 3. RATHER THAN A "PREDICTION" OF IMPACT, A RANGE OF POSSIBLE "OUTCOMES" WILL BE PRODUCED WHICH REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTIES INHERENT IN CLIMATE FORECASTS, CROP-CLIMATE MODELS AND AGRICULTURAL ADJUSTMENT. THE MODEL ESTIMATES WILL INCLUDE THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF CO2 AS WELL AS CLIMATIC CHANGES, AND WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SUCH INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN ANALYSED USING CROP-CLIMATE MODELS IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE. THE EFFECTS OF POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES ON EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE WILL ALSO BE ASSESSED. FINALLY, THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN BASIC AGRONOMIC PRACTICES, SUCH AS CHANGES IN GENOTYPE, PLANTING DATES OR WATER OR FERTILISER APPLICATIONS., WILL BE INVESTIGATED BE ALTERING MODEL PARAMETERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. TAKEN TOGETHER, THESE RESULTS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT, INNOVATIVE PRODUCT OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT.
Ámbito científico
Tema(s)
Data not availableConvocatoria de propuestas
Data not availableRégimen de financiación
CSC - Cost-sharing contractsCoordinador
6701 DB WAGENINGEN
Países Bajos