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Medium term climate variability

Objective

To further develop understanding of climate variability on
seasonal to multidecadal timescales and its representation in
models and to assess the ability of the present generation of
climate models to represent climatic variability on these
timescales.


State of the art atmosphere, ocean and coupled atmosphere-ocean
models will be used to simulate climate variability. Some
further development of the models will also be carried out.
Integrations of these models from seasonal to century-long
timescales will be made to enable assessment of
the ability of global coupled models to represent climate
variability on timescales up to interdecadal,
the contribution which variations in sea surface
temperature make to variability of the atmospheric circulation
on timescales ranging from seasonal to interdecadal,
the ability of models to represent the major climate
signal present in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon,
and the potential for useful predictions of climate
variability.

Use will also be made of simpler models which will allow aspects
of climate variability to be explored at much lower computational
cost.

Comparisons of model results will be made against available
observational datasets. These datasets will include those
available from Numerical Weather Prediction Models, analyses
of historical data, especially of sea surface temperature, and
a variety of meteorological and oceanographic timeseries and
other data. Limited development of new observational datasets
for use in the project will also be carried out.

The project will utilise and develop advanced techniques of
analysis to assess the results of the model integrations. These
include use of 'Schmidt decomposition', Empirical Orthogonal
Eigenfunctions and Singular Value Decomposition. A multivariate
model testing procedure will also be further developed and used
to evaluate and intercompare results from tropical ocean models.
Other intercomparisons will also be made between the different
modelling studies where appropriate.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEFENCE - MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
Address
London Road, Sutton House Room Sg/12
RG12 2SZ Bracknell
United Kingdom

Participants (7)

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
France
Address
Avenue Gustave Coriolis 42, C.n.r. Mtttorologique
31057 Toulouse
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
France
Address
Ecole Polytechnique
91128 Palaiseau
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR)
Italy
Address
Via Emilia Est 770
41100 Modena
MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V.
Germany
Address
Bundesstra¯e 55
20146 Hamburg
ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Netherlands
Address
10,Wilhelminalaan 10
3730 AE De Bilt
UNIVERSITE PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE - PARIS VI
France
Address
Place Jussieu 4
75252 Paris
Universidad de Alcalá de Henares
Spain
Address
Km 33,6,Carretera De Barcelona Km 33,6
28801 Camp Madrid