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Medium term climate variability


To further develop understanding of climate variability on
seasonal to multidecadal timescales and its representation in
models and to assess the ability of the present generation of
climate models to represent climatic variability on these

State of the art atmosphere, ocean and coupled atmosphere-ocean
models will be used to simulate climate variability. Some
further development of the models will also be carried out.
Integrations of these models from seasonal to century-long
timescales will be made to enable assessment of
the ability of global coupled models to represent climate
variability on timescales up to interdecadal,
the contribution which variations in sea surface
temperature make to variability of the atmospheric circulation
on timescales ranging from seasonal to interdecadal,
the ability of models to represent the major climate
signal present in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon,
and the potential for useful predictions of climate

Use will also be made of simpler models which will allow aspects
of climate variability to be explored at much lower computational

Comparisons of model results will be made against available
observational datasets. These datasets will include those
available from Numerical Weather Prediction Models, analyses
of historical data, especially of sea surface temperature, and
a variety of meteorological and oceanographic timeseries and
other data. Limited development of new observational datasets
for use in the project will also be carried out.

The project will utilise and develop advanced techniques of
analysis to assess the results of the model integrations. These
include use of 'Schmidt decomposition', Empirical Orthogonal
Eigenfunctions and Singular Value Decomposition. A multivariate
model testing procedure will also be further developed and used
to evaluate and intercompare results from tropical ocean models.
Other intercomparisons will also be made between the different
modelling studies where appropriate.

Call for proposal

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EU contribution
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London Road, Sutton House Room SG/12
United Kingdom

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Participants (7)