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Regionalisation of anthropogenic climate change simulations

Objective

To obtain increased accuracy of regional simulations of climate
and climate change over Europe.


Variable resolution atmospheric general circulation models
(AGCMs) and high resolution limited area models, developed and
tested in the Regionalization project, will be applied in
time-slice regionalizations of coarser coupled atmosphere-ocean
general circulation models (AOGCMs) control and scenario
simulations.

Three high resolution atmospheric limited area models (ALAMs)
will be used to "regionalize" new climate simulations from second
generation AOGCMs. The lateral boundary fields, SSTs and sea-ice
fields will be taken from outputs of three AOGCMs (at NCAR, MPIM
and UKMO). 5-10 year time-slice ALAM simulations driven by output
from present (control) and transiently increasing greenhouse
gases (scenario) experiments will be made.

Similar time-slice simulations will be
made with an AGCM (METEO FRANCE's ARPEGE) using stretched
coordinates with highest resolution over Europe. The SSTs and
sea-ice fields will be taken from one of the above mentioned
sets of AOGCM simulations (made with coarser homogeneous
resolution).

A special study will investigate whether ocean SST
simulation (in casu the Atlantic SSTs off the Portuguese coast)
can be improved using an ocean limited area model (OLAM). Very
high resolution climate simulations will be made for specific
regions in Europe (northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula) by
driving very high resolution ALAMs with output from the high
resolution ALAM simulations.

For the greater Alpine area a
statistical dynamic methodology will be used to give similar
very high resolution simulations. The methodology combines the use
of a mesoscale dynamical model with a statistical classification
scheme for the large scale flow regime.

Finally a purely statistical downscaling methodology will be used
to simulate the local climate at a few Danish stations. This
methodology will use statistical relations between "observed"
large scale flow patterns and local weather.

The various regional and local climate simulations based on the
AOGCM control simulations will be intercompared and evaluated
against climatological data in order to estimate upper bounds for
the accuray of the corresponding simulated climate changes
produced from the AOGCM scenario simulations.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V.
Address
Bundesstra¯e 55
20146 Hamburg
Germany

Participants (7)

AGENZIA REGIONALE PREVENZIONE E AMBIENTE DELL'EMILIA-ROMAGNA
Italy
Address
Viale Silvani 6
40122 Bologna
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
France
Address
Avenue Gustave Coriolis 42, C.n.r. Mtttorologique
31057 Toulouse
DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Denmark
Address
100,Lyngbyvej 100
2100 Koepenhagen
GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTRE
Germany
Address
Muenchener Strasse 20, Oberpfaffernhofen
82234 Wessling
SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEFENCE - MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
United Kingdom
Address
London Road, Sutton House Room Sg/12
RG12 2SZ Bracknell
Universidad de Alcala de Henares
Spain
Address
20,Apartado
28880 Madrid
Università degli Studi dell'Aquila
Italy
Address
Via Vetoio 10
67010 Coppito L'aquila