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An european flood forecasting system

Objective

Problems to be solved
National water authorities are normally able to provide flood warnings between one and four days in advance of flood events. These warnings are usually based on weather forecasts in combination with knowledge of the actual hydrologic conditions in the river basins concerned. However, the emergency civil and water management agencies would benefit from an increase in lead-time, to effectively implement their plans in downstream areas. Therefore there exists a need for improved flood forecasting to extend the flood-warning period. Improved flood forecasting should enable more effective evacuation of people from high-risk areas or the controlled release of water from reservoirs in upstream areas to create temporary retention basins to reduce flood volumes and peaks. EFFS aims at developing a prototype of a 4-10 day in advance European floods forecasting system. This system aims at providing daily information on potential floods for the large rivers Rhine and Oder as well as flash floods in small basins. The framework of the system will allow incorporation of both detailed models for specific basins as well as a broad scale for entire Europe.
Scientific objectives and approach
The overall objectives of EFFS are to employ currently available Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (4 - 10 days) to produce reliable flood warnings, beyond the current flood warning period of approximately 3 days. The project will design a Medium-Range Flood Forecasting System for Europe that will produce flood warnings on the basis of the Medium Range Weather Forecasts. On the basis of the newly developed system, flood forecasts will be produced in regions where at present flood forecasts are unavailable.
The scientific objectives include:
1) the development and application of downscaling techniques for weather forecasts that can be used in real-time operational flood warning systems over large areas,
2) the design of a framework that allows for the use of different rainfall-runoff flood models linked to the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in order to provide Medium Range Flood Forecasts
3) the investigation of the concept of an overall water balance hydrological model as a basis for regional rainfall-runoff flood modelling.
4) the investigate of the accuracy of the flood forecasts in space and time starting off from uncertainties in Medium Range Weather Forecasts and assess the error propagation through the system
5) the finding of methods to incorporate uncertainties both from the weather forecasts as well as from the hydrologic models to be used in operational forecasts and use them as a decision factor as part of the actual flood forecast
6) the investigation and recommendations concerning methods to disseminate the forecasts to whom they might concern, and to retrieve feedback from the users.
Expected impacts
Recent developments in the art of weather forecasting have brought the needs for improved flood forecasting within reach. Currently, Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are available for periods between 4 and 10 days ahead. These forecasts, which are still hardly used for practical purposes, could prove particularly useful in providing additional valuable information to decision makers in flood-risk areas. In the present project, the reasonable extension of the forecasting period will be examined by an assessment of the accuracy as a function of lead-time, location and season, and the minimum requirements put forward by the end-users.
Weather forecasts: Data of all three events have been collected and disseminated to the project partners.
Databases: Both the hydrological and geographical databases are ready to test the forecasting system for the selected events. A real-time hydrological data supply is organised for this project.
Hydrological modelling: The LISFLOOD model is ready for flood forecasting application. A description of forecasting hydrological models has been made.
Parameter estimation: Instrument development: The Flood Forecasting System has been developed and implemented for the Rhine basin. The functional and technical design of the Flood Forecasting System is described.
Dissemination of flood forecasting results: An overview of current methods in Europe is ready.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

STICHTING WATERLOOPKUNDIG LABORATORIUM (WL/DELFT HYDRAULICS)
Address
185,Rotterdamseweg 185
2600 MH Delft
Netherlands

Participants (17)

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Italy
Address
1,Via E. Fermi 1
21020 Barasso
DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Denmark
Address
100,Lyngbyvej 100
2100 Koepenhagen
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts - ECMWF
United Kingdom
Address
Shinfield Park
RG2 9AX Reading
FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF HYDROLOGY
Germany
Address
15-17,Kaiserin-augusta-anlagen 15-17
56002 Koblenz
GERMAN WEATHER SERVICE
Germany
Address

63004 Offenbach Am Main
INSTITUTE FOR INLAND WATER MANAGEMENT AND WASTE WATER TREATMENT
Netherlands
Address
Gildemeestersplein 1
6800 ED Arnhem
INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY
Lithuania
Address
T. Sevcenkos, 13
2600 Vilnius
INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGICAL AND WATER MANAGEMENT
Poland
Address
Parkowa 30
51 616 Wroclaw
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY - BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Bulgaria
Address
Tzarigradsko Chaussee 66
1784 Sofia
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT
Romania
Address
97,Sos. Bucuresti-ploiesti 97
71552 Bucuresti
SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE@@@
Slovakia
Address
Jeseniova 17
833 15 Bratislava
SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Sweden
Address
Folkborgsvägen 1
601 76 Noorkoeping
UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA
Italy
Address
Via Zamboni 67
40127 Bologna
UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL
United Kingdom
Address
University Road
BS8 1SS Bristol, Clifton
UNIVERSITY OF LANCASTER
United Kingdom
Address
Bailrigg
LA1 4YQ Lancaster /High Bantham
UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA
Slovenia
Address
Jamova 2
1000 Ljubljana
VITUKI - WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH CENTRE PLC
Hungary
Address
Kvassay Jenoe Ut 1
1095 Budapest