Active volcanoes provide agricultural, residential and tourist benefits to the EU, but are also an ever-present threat to vulnerable populations. Project VOLCALERT aims to develop practical techniques for forecasting volcanic eruptions and for effectively communicating these forecasts to groups coordinating emergency responses. Field data, laboratory studies and theoretical models will be used to investigate the roles of magma pressure and edifice fracture on controlling short-term eruption precursors. Statistical methods will be developed for selecting the optimum precursor for forecasting, and for quantifying forecast uncertainties. The results will be combined with risk-perception analyses among decision makers to design best-practice guidelines for making and issuing objective, short-term eruption forecasts.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
EH9 3JW Edinburgh