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Modelling sequential biosphere systems under climate change for radioactive waste disposal

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BIOCLIM has delivered a comprehensive methodology for incorporating climate-driven environmental change into the biosphere component of performance assessments. Climate states/classes and transitions provide an appropriate framework for developing structured descriptions of environmental change for such assessments. The IAEA BIOMASS Reference Biosphere methodology was found to be appropriate for characterising biosphere states and this methodology was developed and augmented to provide a methodology for dealing with climate transitions. Climate modelling has included innovative new developments in Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) including the coupling of sub-components to represent atmosphere, ocean and ice sheet dynamics. Applications of a hierarchy of climate models used in a ¿cascade mode¿ to obtain global to regional data on climate and vegetation changes for various time slices over very long time scales were demonstrated. Three different downscaling techniques were developed to derive regional climate information from data originally derived on larger scales. The project has provided a substantial body of climatic modelling results for large areas of Europe ¿ these represent an important resource for national organisations wanting to include future climate change in performance assessments. Additionally, palaeological data have been collated and documented for regions in France, England, Spain and the Czech Republic.

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