The dynamics of uncertainty and prediction in nonlinear models of the atmosphere

Objective

Proposal: To consider the behaviour of two 'toy' models of the atmosphere (3 and 28 dimensional) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLANI). I will investigate the effects on predictability, of both selection and uncertainty of the initial state. I will examine measurement of reliability based on the evolution of an ensemble of similar initial conditions.
I wish to assess improvements in prediction, when using larger ensembles of initial conditions, and improving both the model, and the quality of observations.
Also, I hope to consider some observational time series and distinguish between the relative strengths of deterministic and probabilistic modelling in the context of long range predictions.
I hope to disseminate, promote and exploit the findings by collaborating with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECNIWF Reading) and the Irish Meteorological Service.

Programme(s)

• FP4-TMR - Specific research and technological development programme in the field of the training and mobility of researchers, 1994-1998

Topic(s)

• 0302 - Post-doctoral research training grants
• TM24 - Applied Mathematics

Funding Scheme

RGI - Research grants (individual fellowships)

Coordinator

University of Oxford

Address

24-29 St Giles'
OX1 3LB Oxford
United Kingdom

Participants (1)

Not available

Ireland