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The dynamics of uncertainty and prediction in nonlinear models of the atmosphere

Objective



Proposal: To consider the behaviour of two 'toy' models of the atmosphere (3 and 28 dimensional) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLANI). I will investigate the effects on predictability, of both selection and uncertainty of the initial state. I will examine measurement of reliability based on the evolution of an ensemble of similar initial conditions.
I wish to assess improvements in prediction, when using larger ensembles of initial conditions, and improving both the model, and the quality of observations.
Also, I hope to consider some observational time series and distinguish between the relative strengths of deterministic and probabilistic modelling in the context of long range predictions.
I hope to disseminate, promote and exploit the findings by collaborating with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECNIWF Reading) and the Irish Meteorological Service.

Coordinator

University of Oxford
Address
24-29 St Giles'
OX1 3LB Oxford
United Kingdom

Participants (1)

Not available
Ireland