The dynamics of uncertainty and prediction in nonlinear models of the atmosphere

Project Information

Grant agreement ID: FMBI950203

Project closed

Start date 1 May 1996

End date 30 April 1999

Funded under

• Specific research and technological development programme in the field of the training and mobility of researchers, 1994-1998

Total cost No data

EU contribution No data

Coordinated by

University of Oxford
United Kingdom

Objective

Proposal: To consider the behaviour of two 'toy' models of the atmosphere (3 and 28 dimensional) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLANI). I will investigate the effects on predictability, of both selection and uncertainty of the initial state. I will examine measurement of reliability based on the evolution of an ensemble of similar initial conditions.
I wish to assess improvements in prediction, when using larger ensembles of initial conditions, and improving both the model, and the quality of observations.
Also, I hope to consider some observational time series and distinguish between the relative strengths of deterministic and probabilistic modelling in the context of long range predictions.
I hope to disseminate, promote and exploit the findings by collaborating with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECNIWF Reading) and the Irish Meteorological Service.

Programme(s)

• FP4-TMR - Specific research and technological development programme in the field of the training and mobility of researchers, 1994-1998

Topic(s)

• 0302 - Post-doctoral research training grants
• TM24 - Applied Mathematics

Call for proposal

Data not available

Funding Scheme

RGI - Research grants (individual fellowships)

Coordinator

University of Oxford

• EU contribution: No data
• Address: 24-29 St Giles' ; OX1 3LB Oxford ; United Kingdom
• Total cost: No data

Participants (1)

Not available

Ireland

• EU contribution: No data
• Total cost: No data