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Contenu archivé le 2024-05-14

The dynamics of uncertainty and prediction in nonlinear models of the atmosphere

Objectif



Proposal: To consider the behaviour of two 'toy' models of the atmosphere (3 and 28 dimensional) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLANI). I will investigate the effects on predictability, of both selection and uncertainty of the initial state. I will examine measurement of reliability based on the evolution of an ensemble of similar initial conditions.
I wish to assess improvements in prediction, when using larger ensembles of initial conditions, and improving both the model, and the quality of observations.
Also, I hope to consider some observational time series and distinguish between the relative strengths of deterministic and probabilistic modelling in the context of long range predictions.
I hope to disseminate, promote and exploit the findings by collaborating with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECNIWF Reading) and the Irish Meteorological Service.

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Programme(s)

Thème(s)

Appel à propositions

Données non disponibles

Régime de financement

RGI - Research grants (individual fellowships)

Coordinateur

University of Oxford
Contribution de l’UE
Aucune donnée
Adresse
24-29 St Giles'
OX1 3LB Oxford
Royaume-Uni
Coût total
Aucune donnée

Participants (1)