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Dynamic analysis of risk in scenario-based policy definition

Objective

Scenarios are used to aid policy-makers to understand possible futures and to define policies that steer an objective path to our desired future. The future is inherently characterized by varying degrees of uncertainty, complexity and fluidity. Subjectivity within scenario development is hard to avoid and can lead to biased results.

It is possible to 'see through' the bias of subjectivity using dynamic decision analysis. Moreover, dynamic decision analysis can actually be more productive than a normal discussion / meeting as it is thought to accelerate idea generation, 'defuse' the process and removes the personalization of ideas. By applying a dynamic decision analysis technique we can produce a more objective and robust set of scenarios, assessing assumptions, risk and policy connectivity. This will help to produce an improved set of robust policies able to deal with future changes and reduce risk.

Call for proposal

IHP-STRATA-01-1
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Coordinator

QINETIQ LIMITED
Address
85 Buckingham Gate
London
United Kingdom

Participants (2)

CENTRE FOR TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT IN BADEN-WURTTEMBERG
Germany
Address
Industriestrasse 5
Stuttgart
STICHTING RAND EUROPE
Netherlands
Address
Newtonweg 1
Leiden