Objective
Foreseen Results
The risk assessment of late effects of thyroid exposures is a fundamental issue of human radiobiology. Simultaneously, the thyroid dose estimates will be applied to the health monitoring of exposed populations after the Chernobyl accident.
Reported thyroid cancer incidence and thyroid dose assessments in the areas of the former Soviet Union contaminated after this accident will be available for the international scientific analysis. Experience achieved in this study and obtained results should be used in strategy of nuclear energy development, designing of radiation protection standards and in the countermeasure planning.
The Chernobyl accident gives an unique possibility to investigate radiation-induced thyroid cancer risk as a function of age at exposure, sex, dose and time since irradiation. Hundreds of thousands of people in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia were exposed after the accident. Particularly, 131I caused very high doses absorbed in the thyroid due to its concentration in this gland. In some areas, the individual doses estimated on the basis of 131I activity measurements in the thyroids have reached 10-15 Gy for children and about 1-1.5 Gy for adults. All ages, males and females are present in the exposed and measured populations.
The present dose estimations are mainly based on about 267000 measurements of the 131I activity in the thyroid. In the proposed research results of 131I concentration in milk, greens, foodstuffs and soil will be used as well. In territories where no radioiodine measurements were performed, doses will be assessed on the basis of correlation with 137Cs deposition on soil and with dose rates in air in May-June 1986. Additionally, questionnaire data will be used. The possibilities to use the results of atmospheric dispersion modeling and measurements of 129I concentration in soil will be investigated.
In 1986-1994, 1024 thyroids cancers have been reported in children and young adults who were in the age of 0 to 18 years at the time of the accident. Already now, 10 years after the accident, we have the opportunity to develop and analyze the biggest thyroid cancer register for children. Since 1990, in Ukraine and Belarus, the increase in thyroid cancer in exposed populations greatly exceeded the increase of baseline rate. In 1990-1994 in some areas, this increase was up to 100-fold for children aged 0-8 years at the time of the accident. A preliminary analysis has shown that the thyroid cancer incidence increased with the dose received.
The main ail of the proposed research is to estimate the radiation thyroid cancer risk for the children. To attain this aim, dosimetric models will be developed and thyroid doses will be estimated for different populations; thyroid cancer incidence in children will be assessed and analyzed; statistical methods in risk assessment will be adapted to the limitations and uncertainties of available data, radiation risk functions will be estimated for the time of observation; predictions for future rates in the contaminated areas will be given.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- engineering and technology other engineering and technologies food technology
- engineering and technology environmental engineering energy and fuels nuclear energy
- medical and health sciences clinical medicine oncology
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Coordinator
85764 OBERSCHLEISSHEIM
Germany
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