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Assessment of seismic potential in European large earthquake areas

Objective


Foreseen Results

The first issue concerns (1) local seismic monitoring of the fault zones of Thiva - Oropos to the north of Athens (Greece) and Vlora - Debar in eastern Albania, and (2) upgrading of the telemetric seismograph network of Albania. As regards field observation, new neotectronic and paleoseismological data will be collected while their elaboration with advanced computing paleostress methods will contribute to modelling stress-field patterns and seismotetonics. Interpretations of shallow and deeper tectonics will be also approached by advanced magnetotelluric surveys in particular seismic zones. New probabilistic approaches will be tried for (1) the sensitivity analysis and correction of "standard" seismic hazard assessment methods, (2) the detection of structural changes in the seismic process, (3) the simulation of earthquakes cycle, and (4) the comparative analysis of different approaches in use. Advanced artificial intelligence techniques integrating GIS and Expert Systems technologies will be tried for solving problems of earthquake forecasting and cluster analysis. ASPELEA is based on a highly interdisciplinary approach : seismologists, geologists, tectonicians, geophysicists, computer scientists, mathematicians will cooperate together to achieve the proposed tasks.
The project ASPELEA is a cooperative effort involving partners from three EU countries (Greece, Italy, The Netherlands), four CCE countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Czech republic, Romania) and Russia and addressing the very important problem of assessing reliably the seismic potential and mitigating the associated hazards in European high-risk earthquake areas. Earthquakes are know to have affected seriously many European areas particularly Greece and other countries of the Balkan peninsula, Italy, and many territories of Russia.
In spite of the research progress that has been made internationally no standard methods have established for the reliable determination of the seismic potential in particular seismogenic or fault zones. A variety of stochastic and deterministic approaches have proposed and tested from time to time. In the European continent some different research "schools" in western and eastern countries were developed. ASPELEA will be centered on assessing the seismic potential in particular high-risk earthquake areas in Greece, Italy, Albania, Bulgaria and Romania by testing advanced stochastic and deterministic methods and techniques on a multidisciplinary basis. This will contribute to make new substantial scientific and technical progresses, will help in comparing critically western and eastern European approaches for the seismic potential determination, and will result in mitigating the seismic risk in the areas exposed to the earthquake activity. The ASPELEA project, the central goal of which is the assessment if seismic potential and the evaluation of its consequences for reducing the earthquakes impact, is structured in the five following main objectives that are all interrelated and oriented to the main goal of the project :

Seismic monitoring
New field observations to model seismotectonics
Advanced geophysical survey for seismotectonic interpretation
New probabilistic approaches for earthquakes forecasting and hazard assessment
Advanced artificial intelligence techniques for the seismic process description

Specific sub-objectives have been scheduled for each one of the above main tasks.

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS
Address
Lofos Nymfon
11810 Athens
Greece

Participants (7)

Academia of Sciences of Albania
Albania
Address
Academia Of Sciences Of Albania
Tirana
GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE - BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Bulgaria
Address
3,Aca. G. Bonchev Str. 3
1113 Sofia
Institute for Information Transmission Problems - Russian Academy of Sciences
Russia
Address
19,B. Karetny 19
101447 Moskva
Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics - Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Czechia
Address
41,V. Holesovickach 41
182 09 Praha 8
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF ITALY
Italy
Address
Via Ampere 56
20131 Milano
National Institute for Earth Physics
Romania
Address

76900 Bucuresti - Magurele
Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht
Netherlands
Address

3508 TA Utrecht