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Mathematical models of the immunological and clinical epidemiology of plasmodium falciparum malaria

Objective

* Construct mathematical models of the immunological and clinical epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum (P.f.) malaria, and test the model predictions against observations collected independently of this project.
* Use the models for helping to:
a) calculate the expected impact of interventions;
b) improve the design of field intervention trials;
c) identify crucial gaps in knowledge that constrain (a) and (b).
Expected Outcome

Better simulation models will help to clarify the following issues:
1) Optimal adaptation of control strategies, using currently available methods, to different epidemiological and socio-economic situations, including projections of what could be expected from additional resources;
2) Expected benefits from new tools likely to be technically feasible, including different kinds of vaccines;
3) Optimal development and evaluation strategy of such new tools.
* Review of relevant biological, clinical, and epidemiological knowledge
* Specification of observations to be used as modelling targets:
a) longitudinal data on the behaviour of P.f. infection and disease in individuals after one or more experimental inoculations;
b) longitudinal data on the behaviour of P.f. infection and disease in individuals naturally exposed to repeated inoculation;
c) longitudinal data on the transmission of P.f. and the behaviour of P.f. infection and disease in naturally exposed populations.
* Formulation (and reformulation) and programming of the models.
* Design, performance and evaluation of simulations.
The evaluation will consist primarily of the formal comparison of simulations to observations. The comparisons will suggest revisions of the models' assumptions and parameters values, until an acceptable fit is obtained.
* Formulation of recommendations
The practical implications of the work will be made explicit, leading to recommendations in the following areas: (a) planning of malaria control; (b) evaluation of malaria control programmes and of field trials; (c) epidemiological research; (d) research on statistical methods.

Funding Scheme

CON - Coordination of research actions

Coordinator

THE UNIVERSITY OF TUEBINGEN
Address
55,Westbahnhofstrasse 55
72076 Tuebingen
Germany

Participants (15)

Centre National de Lutte contre le Paludisme
Burkina Faso
Address

01 Ouagadougou
Hôpital 'Dr A.Schweitzer' Lambarene
Gabon
Address

20 Lambarene
INSTITUT PASTEUR
France
Address
Rue Du Docteur Roux 28
75724 Paris
Institut Pasteur
France
Address
28,Rue Du Docteur Roux
75724 Paris
Institut Pasteur de Dakar
Senegal
Address
36,Avenue Pasteur 36
30 Dakar
Institut de Médécine Tropicale du Service de Santé des Armées
France
Address
Allée Du Colonel Jamot
13998 Marseille Armées
LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE
United Kingdom
Address
Keppel Street
London
National Institute for Medical Research
Tanzania
Address

Ifakara
Swiss Tropical Institute
Switzerland
Address
57,Socinstrasse
4002 Basel
THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom
Address
John Radcliffe Hospital - Oxfordshire 5802
OX3 9DU Oxford/headington
UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH
United Kingdom
Address
West Mains Road, Ashworth Laboratories, King's Bu
EH9 3JT Edinburgh
Universidad de Barcelona
Spain
Address
170,Calle Villarroel
08036 Barcelona
University of Colombo
Sri Lanka
Address
Kynsey Road
8 Colombo
Universitá degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza'
Italy
Address
Piazzale Aldo Moro
00185 Roma
Wellcome Trust Research Laboratories Kilifi Kenya
Kenya
Address

80009 Kilifi