Objective
The aim of this research is to assess the possible demographic consequences of the transition of the NIS to a market economy. Demographic scenarios (alternative futures) will be prepared covering mortality by cause, fertility, migration between the republics of the NIS , and international migration to countries of Europe and to north America.
Many of the social and political issues in the NIS today have their roots in the demography of the country. The population is very heterogeneous even within a single republic. For instance, in Ukraine, a woman does not have enough children to replace the population with a fertility below replacement level, while in Tajikistan a woman has more than five children on average. The regional fertility differences, although large, are only crude approximations of fertility differences by nationality (ethnicity). For instance, Tajik women have 6.9 children on average, Turkmen women 6.5 and Uzbek women 6.4. Nationality has now become the most important variable in many political and socio-economic discussions, and the future of the states of the NIS depend to a considerable degree on the issue of nationality.
As part of this research a database will be established covering a time series of major demographic variables and indicators.
Call for proposal
Data not availableFunding Scheme
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9700 AV Groningen
Netherlands