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Scenario-based framework for modelling transport technology deployment: energy-environment decision support

Objective



Objectives
The aim of the project is to build and validate a decision support system. The main purposes of this tool would be:
- to project the market uptake of different transport technologies under various scenarios and policy options;
- to assess the energy, environmental and other impacts of these different technology mixes.
The tool will be targeted on decision support for:
- public authorities, concerning how to influence the uptake of specific technologies for energy and environmental benefits;
- transport supply industries (vehicles, fuels etc.), concerning policymakers' optimal decisions based on energy and environmental criteria.
Technical Approach
The decision support system will include a set of scenarios, a range of policy options, models of various aspects of the transport-energyenvironment system, and a multiple criteria decision aid.
The strategic assessments generated by the decision support tool will mainly be at a national level. However, some disaggregation of results will be possible, for example between urban and extra-urban areas. In addition, aggregation of effects to the whole of Europe (defined as the EU Member States, Norway and Switzerland) will be provided, European systems such as the Trans-European Transport Network will be modelled, and the impacts of traffic across the boundaries of Europe will be considered. The tool will cover both passenger and freight transport, by all transport modes.
Expected Achievements and Exploitation
The key novel aspects of the decision support system will be: - the ability to consider a wide range of input and output parameters in an integrated perspective;
- calculation of environmental externalities.
These features will enable the target users to explore the possible effects of a wide range of policy options under various scenarios. Questions which could be addressed using the tool include:
- how can we reduce externalities substantially, with what side effects ? - what are the costs and benefits of pollution abatement ?
- how can we meet environmental targets cost-effectively ?
- what-if ? (we change policy, change the technology mix, change technology cost, change modal split etc.)
- what are the relative effects of different fiscal and regulatory policy options ?
- what should we do to encourage the new technologies which will be required in 20-30 years' time ?
- what step changes in technology are possible, and what impacts would they have ?

Funding Scheme

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinator

AEA TECHNOLOGY PLC
Address
329,Harwell 329
OX11 0QJ Didcot,harwell,chilton
United Kingdom

Participants (6)

BG PLC
United Kingdom
Address
Ashby Road
LE11 3GR Loughborough - Leicestershire
Defence Research Establishment
Sweden
Address
1,Lilla Nygatan 1
172 90 Stockholm
Deutsche Automobilgesellschaft mbH
Germany
Address
24,Julius-konegen-strasse
38114 Braunschweig
European Communities - Commission of the European Communities
Italy
Address
Via E. Fermi
21020 Ispra - Varese
TÜV Rheinland Sicherheit und Umweltschutz GmbH
Germany
Address
Am Grauen Stein
51105 Köln
UNIVERSITAET STUTTGART
Germany
Address
Hessbruehlstrasse, 49 A
70565 Stuttgart