Skip to main content

World long-term energy systems: a model and global outlook for european strategies

Objective

1. To make it possible for EC strategies and policies in the field of energy, to include long term and global prospects such as transformation of world geostrategic elements and global energy supply/demand balance elements or constraints imposed on energy consumption by environmental issues such as global climate change.
2. To make it possible to improve the scenario modelling approach, by extending the realistic character of both input and output in such a way that they account for elements of uncertainty in many forms.

1. The principles of the POLES model are based on H. Simon's hypothesis, that most complex systems can best be described by a hierarchical structure, organizing and linking "nearly decomposable systems".
The world energy system will thus be described according to a three level structure :
- level 1 : international energy markets
- level 2 : national or regional sub-system
- level 3 : techno-economic sub-systems for sectoral consumption models. In-depth studies in five key areas will be implemented :
1 - Long-term trends in energy demand based on data collected in Germany (FhG/ISI);
2 - Energy demand and electricity production in major developing countries: China, India and Brazil (SPRU);
3 - Energy systems in Eastern European and CIS countries, taking into account specific features in these countries (IEPE);
4 - New energy conversion and renewable energy technologies, potential up to 2030 (ETSU);
5 - Long term trends in economic growth and industrial localization: exploration of the world energy sector macroeconomic environment (CEPII).
2. A simple energy supply/demand and price model will be constructed. Probability distributions of endogeneous variables will be provided, and the joint nature of these distributions will be highlighted. Seminars will be organized in order to propagate the methodology within the EC and the scientific community.

Coordinator

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
Address
Rue De La Chimie 150 Univ. Sciences Soc. Grenoble
38040 Grenoble
France

Participants (6)

CENTRE D'ETUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D' INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES/CLUB D'INFORMATION ET DE REFLEXION SUR L'ECONOMIE MONDIALE
France
Address
Rue Georges Pitard 9
75740 Paris
ENERDATA SA
France
Address
Avenue De Vignate 2
Gieres
Ecosim Consultants Ltd
United Kingdom
Address

CM Chelmsford
FRAUNHOFER-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER ANGEWANDTEN FORSCHUNG E.V.
Germany
Address
Breslauer Strasse 48
76139 Karlsruhe
UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX
United Kingdom
Address
Mantell Building
BN1 9RF Falmer - Brighton
United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA)
United Kingdom
Address
Harwell Laboratory
OX11 0RA Didcot