1. To make it possible for EC strategies and policies in the field of energy, to include long term and global prospects such as transformation of world geostrategic elements and global energy supply/demand balance elements or constraints imposed on energy consumption by environmental issues such as global climate change.
2. To make it possible to improve the scenario modelling approach, by extending the realistic character of both input and output in such a way that they account for elements of uncertainty in many forms.
1. The principles of the POLES model are based on H. Simon's hypothesis, that most complex systems can best be described by a hierarchical structure, organizing and linking "nearly decomposable systems".
The world energy system will thus be described according to a three level structure :
- level 1 : international energy markets
- level 2 : national or regional sub-system
- level 3 : techno-economic sub-systems for sectoral consumption models. In-depth studies in five key areas will be implemented :
1 - Long-term trends in energy demand based on data collected in Germany (FhG/ISI);
2 - Energy demand and electricity production in major developing countries: China, India and Brazil (SPRU);
3 - Energy systems in Eastern European and CIS countries, taking into account specific features in these countries (IEPE);
4 - New energy conversion and renewable energy technologies, potential up to 2030 (ETSU);
5 - Long term trends in economic growth and industrial localization: exploration of the world energy sector macroeconomic environment (CEPII).
2. A simple energy supply/demand and price model will be constructed. Probability distributions of endogeneous variables will be provided, and the joint nature of these distributions will be highlighted. Seminars will be organized in order to propagate the methodology within the EC and the scientific community.
Funding SchemeCSC - Cost-sharing contracts
OX11 0RA Didcot