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Résultats exploitables
Main findings are relative to the following areas :
- structuring effects of heavy road infrastructures (motorways and dual carriageway trunk roads),
- structuring effects of high speed trains (French TGV),
- dampening effects at regional and national level.
1.Structuring effects of heavy road infrastructures
A global model, gathering the regions of the five countries under consideration has been obtained with a very high confidence level (the modelling is relative to 375 European zones, each dependant variable has a confidence level less than 1%). This model shows a positive influence of heavy road infrastructure improvements (expressed in kilometres) on employment.
Other models have been obtained for each country considered in the ECOPAC project. Regression coefficients for heavy road infrastructure vary according to the country, and are distributed around the average value given by the global European model. They are shown in the graph on next page.
Confidence levels relative to these regression coefficients are lower than for the global European model, but are still distributed between 5% and 25%. Nevertheless, they seem acceptable, considering the intrinsic complexity of the phenomenon we are trying to explain.
2.Structuring effect of high speed trains
Significant results have also been obtained for high speed rail infrastructures in France. The indicator considered in the regression is relative to global time savings (combination of traffics and unit time saving) between Paris and the main zones connected by the TGV under consideration. The regression coefficient is significant with a confidence level of 5% and its value is about 6 10-8.
3.Dampening effects
Two kinds of dampening effects have been analysed :
- First at regional level there may be a tendency to group new investments along or in the vicinity of the infrastructure, at the expense of other regions. Dampening effects are therefore even more difficult to reveal than structuring effects, using the methodology developed within the ECOPAC project. Dampening effects are certainly more tangible inside the immediate vicinity of the infrastructure (approximately a 20 km ribbon) so that they could not appear at the NUTS III level considered by the ECOPAC project. This finding seems to indicate that dampening effects are already deduced from the structuring effects that have been presented previously.
- at the national level, the dampening effect is of different nature and comes from the fact that if a transport investment is made in one region, it will be often at the expense of other investments (either in transport or in other economic sectors) made in other regions. To which extent investments compensate each other concerning socio-economic impacts corresponds to the dampening effect under consideration. Production functions distinguishing capital in transport and capital in other domains have been estimated for France.
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