Objective
In the extreme south-east of Denmark, the district of Southern Jutland has almost 5% of the national population. In the initial phase, the objectives of regional energy planning in Denmark were mainly concerned with the problem of energy supplies for heating, an item which represented 42% of consumption in Southern Jutland in 1985.
From that year on, the regional authorities decided to look for an overall energy plan, extending to every energy consuming sector in the region. This approach reflects the will of the central authorities to forecast energy development in the light of integrated planning, in other words the promotion of rational energy use taking account of long term socio-economic and ecological considerations.
This regional energy planning experiment produced several short and long-term results :
- a global energy flow chart was created for the district, enabling the detection of the sectors that were highly dependent on imported fuel.
- a reliable, dynamic model for collecting, up-dating and projecting energy data was elaborated.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
The main lesson learnt from this model was that if the current energy policies were pursued further, the scenario envisaged a 42% increase in energy consumption between 1985 and 2005. The electricity generating and transport sectors might represent 80% of this increase.
On the basis of this indication, the study produced 5 alternative policies. Each projection is backed up by recommendations and takes account of economic (drop in the energy bill, taxation) and ecological criteria (cost of pollution).
The proposed solutions range from a simple plan to supply short-term heating (scenario 1) to energy savings in every sector combined with energy/heat co-generation and the use of alcohol in transport (scenario 5).
This fifth scenario, which is the most radical, would mean a reduction of 85% to 50% of fuel imports (oil and coal products) out of total energy consumption. The proposed actions include the following :
- the establishment in 19 towns of small co-generation plants
- the construction of a 50 MW wind power plant
- the substitution (60%) of petrol and diesel by alcohol
- the substitution (10%) of individual domestic oil burners by boilers fed with straw.
TECHNOLOGIES
The plan draws attention to certain integrated technologies such as biomethanisation, which combines environment planning (purification), energy production (biogas) and agriculture (fertiliser).
Given the close correlations between the energy prices and consumption, the government might encourage the use of suitable technologies by harmonising its fiscal and energy policies.
PILOT PROJECT
The methodology identified in the regional energy plan mightbe used as a basis for new planning activities in other regions of Denmark and the EEC. The project highlights the importance of involving energy suppliers and local authorities in the planning process. The central government also used this model as a basis for its national co-generated heat prodcution scheme.
The "Southern Jutland Plan" has three objectives :
- to identify planning methods for all energy consuming sectors; then produce diagnosis and forecasting models at regional level;
- on the basis of this tool, project a reference scenario for the period 1985-2000 which takes into consideration all types of energy consumption in the region; then evaluate these results from the point of view of specific criteria (effect on employment, creation of new sources of income by using local resources; resort to technological innovations)
- pinpoint and assess substitution scenarios.
First of all, a precise inventory of the total energy needs of the various consumers was established : heating, industry, electricity generation and transport.
Then, a forecasting model was drawn up on the basis of past national energy consumption (from 1966 to 1982). All the parameters of the model were expressed in real terms (price of energy, production value and disposable income)
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Coordinator
6200 ABENRA
Denmark
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.