Objectif
Since th shocks of the 70s, the world is increasingly conscious of the fact that fossil energy resources are not unlimited and that they constitute an important factor in the economic and social development of a country.
Following this awareness, energy policies have been implemented with the aim of developing a growing consciousness on the existence of fossil energy resources and at promoting the rational use of these energy sources.
On behlaf of the Ministry of Energy of Luxembourg and the Commission of the European Communities, TUV Rhineland has developed a model for defining policy at national and regional level.
FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE
In order to forecast energy consumption and distribution in different sectors for the year 2000, for example, researchers simply vary the parameters influencing energy consumption. These parameters include :
* Luxembourg's housing stock,
* the level of thermic insulation of buildings,
* the number and size of households,
* household electrical equipment,
* the substitution energy sources, e.g. conversion to natural gas,
* changes in the economic infrastructure, such as the transfer of
production units, number of employees, new industries,
* changes in the numbers and types of motor vehicles and specific consumption.
Such scenarios can be established both nationally and for specific sectors.
A BASIS FOR DECISION
The distribution of energy consumption among the different final energy vectors shows that oil is currently the largest single source of energy in Luxembourg. Although in the industrial sector oil represents only some 18% of total energy contribution, its share of household energy consumption exceeds 50%. Greater diversification of energy sources is therefore desirable in this sector.
On the other hand, given the correlation existing at this level, energy consumption can also be analysed as to its influence on the reduction of environmentally harmful emission. This provides the Ministry of Energy with an instrument to evaluate the impact of certain energy policy measures and decisions. This model can also contribute to developing strategies for assuring the future supply of energy in the country.
The development of any energy model is based on a thorough knowledge of the energy consumption of different consumer groups and the distribution of this consumption between the various primary sources of energy.
FIXING PARAMETERS
As part of this study, an energy balance has been developed for the following sectors of consumption :
* households,
* public buildings,
* business, crafts and industry
* transport.
This has involved determining and fixing the different parameters influencing the energy balance. For example, household energy consumption is deduced from consumer needs for useful energy on the basis of the number and type of dwellings, the calories required for heating, and on household electrical equipment, etc.
Data on industrial energy consumption, on the other hand, can be obtained essentially by requesting information directly from major consumers. These data are rounded off by calculations based on the number of employees occupied in the different industrial sectors.
In the transport sector, we have :
* energy demand as derived essentially from a calculation based on the number of registered motor vehicles in Luxembourg and on known statistical values on average kilometres driven in the different types of cars
* fuel consumption data provided by sales figures, which also include consumption by inhabitants of neighbouring countries and foreign traffic passing through the country.
A PLANNING TOOL
Based on this detailed balance of energy flows, a computer model was developed, which will make it possible :
* to update the energy balance on a yearly basis, including, for example, changes in housing stock or the economic infrastructure;
* to analyze the impact of different energy policy measures on total energy consumption in the country.
In this way, the effectiveness and, hence, the socio-economic usefulness of such measures can be evaluated.
Given that this energy balance is available not just at national level, but also in part at local level, the model also allows decisions to be made on extending the infrastructures for different forms of energy, such as natural gas and electricity, in certain regions of the country.
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2499 Luxembourg
Luxembourg
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