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Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting

Objective

Space weather can have detrimental, and in some cases catastrophic, effects upon a multitude of technologies on which we depend as part our daily lives. Adverse space weather is now known to result from solar flares and coronal mass ejections released from the turbulent and highly complex magnetic fields of active regions. Understanding how active region magnetic fields evolve and produce these events is therefore of fundamental importance to developing accurate and reliable space-weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities.

We therefore propose to develop an advanced flare prediction system (Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption Forecasting; FLARECAST) that is based on automatically extracted physical properties of active regions coupled with state-of-the-art flare prediction methods and validated using the most appropriate forecast verification measures.

Active region properties, such as area, magnetic flux, shear, magnetic complexity, helicity and proxies for magnetic energy, will be extracted from solar magnetogram and white-light images in near-realtime using advanced image-processing techniques. Once active region properties have been extracted, they will be correlated with solar flare activity and used to optimize prediction algorithms based on statistical, unsupervised clustering and supervised learning methods. This will enable us to validate our image processing and flare prediction algorithms before launching a near-realtime flare forecasting service, the first of its kind in the world.

FLARECAST will therefore form the basis of the first quantitative, physically motivated and autonomous active region monitoring and flare forecasting system, which will be of use to space-weather researchers and forecasters in Europe and around the globe.

Call for proposal

H2020-PROTEC-2014
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

RIA - Research and Innovation action

Coordinator

ACADEMY OF ATHENS
Address
Panepistimiou Ave. 28
10679 Athens
Greece
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
EU contribution
€ 371 063,75

Participants (8)

THE PROVOST, FELLOWS, FOUNDATION SCHOLARS & THE OTHER MEMBERS OF BOARD, OF THE COLLEGE OF THE HOLY & UNDIVIDED TRINITY OF QUEEN ELIZABETH NEAR DUBLIN
Ireland
EU contribution
€ 407 731,25
Address
College Green
2 Dublin
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI GENOVA
Italy
EU contribution
€ 241 375
Address
Via Balbi 5
16126 Genova
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
Italy
EU contribution
€ 135 500
Address
Piazzale Aldo Moro 7
00185 Roma
Activity type
Research Organisations
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS
France
EU contribution
€ 211 000
Address
Rue Michel Ange 3
75794 Paris
Activity type
Other
UNIVERSITE PARIS-SACLAY
France
EU contribution
€ 224 583,75
Address
Batiment Breguet - 3 Rue Joliot Curie
91190 Gif-sur-yvette
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
FACHHOCHSCHULE NORDWESTSCHWEIZ
Switzerland
EU contribution
€ 569 162,50
Address
Bahnhofstrasse 6
5210 Windisch
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
MET OFFICE
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 136 908,75
Address
Fitzroy Road
EX1 3PB Exeter
Activity type
Public bodies (excluding Research Organisations and Secondary or Higher Education Establishments)
UNIVERSITY OF NORTHUMBRIA AT NEWCASTLE
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 119 326,25
Address
Sutherland Building College Street
NE1 8ST Newcastle Upon Tyne
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments