Threat scanning report based on the four threat scanning workshops, including documentation and respective expert survey-based evaluations (GPPi with contributions from PRIO, FUB, Carnegie, EUI, Sciences Po, IDC, IAI, PISM, UIPP).
Report detailing findings and policy-oriented analysis for assessing the impact of global and diffuse threats on the EU and its surroundings
Report on conditions under which resilience in ALS/CO can be fostered and potential contributions by EU and its member states. WP1 will formulate hypotheses on the con-ditions under which state, societal, and re-gional resilience can be fostered to prevent ALS/CO from deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent con-flict or to re-store peace in post-conflict scenarios. Based on the identification of these enabling con-di-tions, WP1 will identify factors that the EU and its member states can influence to foster the resili-ence of ALS/CO.These hy-potheses will then inform the research tem-plates for the various case studies of ALS/CO carried out by EU-LISTCO.
Strategic policy design reports based on the four strategic policy design workshops, including expert survey-based evaluations.
The publications will present the research results of each WP. The EU-LISTCO working papers will have specific graphic design and visual identification. They will comply with common editorial stand-ards, i.e. 5.000-10.000 words with an abstract. They will include footnotes and references. Each of the papers will be reviewed by two referees from EU-LISTCO partners, the advisory board, or extra-project experts. All papers will be published in an electronic version (e.g. in PDF format) and will be freely available on the EU-LISTCO website. They will be also widely disseminated to academia, think tanks and official institutions through the EU-LISTCO communication and information services (web-site, newsletters, social media).
Report on EU-LISTCO mid-project conference.
Report on the governance of the political economy as a source of threats in the EU’s neighbouring regions and related conditions for resilience . The report will reflect findings of the analysis of political systems of individual states and their governance in the economic domain, which are largely marked with shortages, which contribute to threats in ALS/CO by curtailing economic means and sapping regimes’ legitimacy. In the South, WP4 will examine predominately, but not only, two economic flows that are contributing particularly to the fragility of the Southern neighbourhood, namely the circulation and recycling of oil rents in the region and informal trade in goods and services in border areas and through uncontrolled routes especially at the border of war-torn areas (Iraq, Libya, Syria). With regard to oil rent recycling in the region, the focus will be on the political economic dynamics of oil rent distribution and transfers from oil-rich countries, namely the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran, into conflict and war-torn countries after the Arab revolutions including Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Iraq. On the trans-national trade front, the focus will be on the North African triangle of Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria and the Middle East triangle of Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey. Likewise, in the East, WP4 will focus on the phenomenon of oligarchy, in political and economic systems of major post-Soviet countries including Russia. It will try to answer the question how the specific political economy and governance in the East European neighbourhood contribute to the fragility potential of ALS/CO in this region and which factors may support building resilience there. Case studies will focus on identifying common elements of political economy and governance, particularly in the context of Russian interferences, of countries like Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, or Armenia, which make them prone to fragility.
Report on the EU and selected member states’ actions and instruments in the Eastern and Southern neighbouring countries and regions and on regional crisis with global implications.
WP5 will analyse security and defence instruments to be used in ALS/CO to foster resilience, including the CFSP and CSDP. WP5 will also examine diverging or converging approaches within the EU and the influence of external actors, in cooperation with WP6. Moreover, we will investigate broader external action instruments to act in ALS/CO and to foster resilience, including development assis-tance tools, migration, and other external relations policies. Finally, WP5 will assess the operationali-sation and implementation process of the EU Global Strategy and its contribution to address ALS/CO, to foster resilience, to respond to global and diffuse threats, and to improve the coherence of the EU external action, in cooperation with WP6. A workshop will take stock of the discussions on prepared-ness, capacities and instruments of EU and member states assessed in the case studies, in preparation for D5.6 and D5.7.
Report on workshop discussing and disseminating insights generated by WP3, in collaboration with WP1, 2, and 4
Final Report on mechanism triggering governance breakdown and violent conflict and fostering resilience across the EU’s neighbouring regions and the implications of these findings for the EU and its member states.
WP5 will conceptualise the preparedness of the EU and selected member states to act in ALS/CO, in cooperation with WP1. We will establish a framework for assessing the capacity of the EU and selected member states to prevent risks from becoming threats, to establish early warning capabilities, to facilitate peace agreements, foster reconciliation, restore sovereignty and promote multilateral agreements, regional cooperation and the involvement of international partners.
Report on radicalisation, political revisionism, role of migration and demography as sources of threats in the EU’s neighbouring regions and related conditions for resilience. The report will reflect findings regarding the analysis of social roots of radicalism, as well as the interactions between non-state armed groups (Sunni, Shia, Kurdish and Christian), on the one hand, and states and regional powers, on the other. Examples include Jihadi groups and militias across the region, and their links with Russia and Iran. In this context, PSR will contribute analyses of surveys conducted in Israel and Palestine, and of the Arab Democracy Index. In the East, the focus will be on the origins, goals, forms, scope and effects of Russian revisionist policies towards the post-Soviet and post-communist countries. Implications of these policies on the post-Soviet countries, including those, which are struggling with so-called frozen conflicts, and the EU member states will be scrutinised. Case studies will focus on conflicts and the role of local actors in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Furthermore, the report will include findings regarding the analysis of demographic trends in the EU’s East and South as well as governance and border controls systems of individual countries, as a key issue, which may contribute to ALS/CO deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent conflict. As regards the South, WP4 will focus in particular on criminal networks for people trafficking across the Eastern Mediterranean route and the Central route via Libya. Special attention will be given to smuggling groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. WP4 will also look at the demographic structure of societies and the demographic boom in this region and analyse implications of these changes for the threats/resilience nexus in ALS/CO. Similar research will be conducted with regards to the EU’s East, where demographic trends are opposite than in the South, but both migration and demographic pressures on governance exist, as well as border security issues. Case studies will take a closer look at demographic trends, migration, and policy responses in this domain of the countries of the post-Soviet space, including Russia.
Synthesis report summarizing research undertaken by EU-LISTCO as the basis for the final conference.
Midterm review report based on the results of the EU-LISTCO midterm-conference and updated in light of subsequent findings.
The background paper elaborates further the conceptual framework of EU-LISTCO based on comprehensive literature reviews with regard to ALS/CO (e.g. hegemonic clash, ideological confrontation, collapse of established role-identities within regional systems). The following concepts central to EU-LISTCO require further clarification: (areas of) limited statehood, contested orders, from risks/challenges to security threats, governance breakdowns and violent conflict, resilience.
Final Report formulating policy-oriented insights on global and diffuse threats and their effects.
WP3, in collaboration with WP2, will undertake a comprehensive critical mapping and evaluation of the main geopolitical and strategic factors generating global and diffuse risks and threats, notably global demography and migration flows, environmental degradation, energy/resource contestation, military/terrorist innovations, weapons proliferation, cyber-warfare, authoritarian resurgence, and ideological challenges to the liberal international order. We will draw upon existing scenario banks and alternative strategic-narratives. This work will feed into WP2’s threat-identification and assess-ment workshops on global and diffuse threats, involving thematic and area experts across the main risks and threats identified (Task 2.2).
Policy paper on the political developments inside the EU and selected member states and their effects on the external action towards ALS/CO.
The report will reflect the findings of the analysis of the EU and selected member states’ actions in areas geographically proximate to the EU, including the Balkans and the Southern and Eastern neighbouring regions. Furthermore, it will focus on the actions of the EU and selected member states in regional crises with global implications, including in the neighbours of the neighbours. Finally, it will compare the EU and selected member states’ actions in global crises and the relations with other global powers.
Final paper(s) on policy frameworks, which will include suggestions as to how EU member states and institutions can cope best with the risks emanating from ALS/CO by reducing the chance that the interplay between ALS and COs brings about a complete breakdown of governance and violent conflict in such areas and generates threats to the security of the EU, its member states, and citizens. D6.4 and D6.5 should be submitted together as one deliverable that addresses both the final paper on policy frameworks to deal with ALS/CO and the lessons learned in the interaction with policy partners. Analytically they will remain separate, but each would be streamlined.
A corresponding report will be prepared. D6.4 and D6.5 should be submitted together as one deliverable that addresses both the final paper on policy frameworks to deal with ALS/CO and the lessons learned in the interaction with policy partners. Analytically they will remain separate, but each would be streamlined.
EU-LISTCO final publication.
Cross-cutting analysis paper of findings and lessons.
Policy paper on the implementation of the EU Global Strategy and its contribution to address ALS/CO, to foster resilience, and to improve the coherence of the EU external action.
The project team will design a methodology for the strategic policy design process based on strategic foresight methods. An initial stock taking of strategic foresight methods, collaborative policy design tools, and cutting-edge workshop techniques will inform the methodological design, building on some of the results of Task 2.1.
The paper will help develop and refine the EU-LISTCO conceptual framework by testing it against geopolitical and strategic global and diffuse threats. It will feed back into the work of WP1 and will be conducted in collaboration with WP1 and WP2.
The papers will translate the results of academic research into practical recommendations in a short and concise manner, specifically designed to meet the needs of policy-makers. The EU-LISTCO policy papers will have specific graphic design and visual identification. They will comply with common editorial standards, i.e. 1.000-5.000 words with a short introduction, main argument section and ending with conclusions and recommendations. Using EU-LISTCO’s contact database, the policy papers will be disseminated directly to selected recipients from the EU institutions and EU member states involved in the decision-making process and implementation of the EU’s external action towards areas of lim-ited statehood and contested orders.
Carnegie will ensure that regular updates on EU-LISTCO's latest publications, events and news will be distributed through regular biannual newsletters.
Report on EU-LISTCO final conference.
The report will develop hypotheses guiding EU-LISTCO’s empirical research. This refers to conditions under which ALS/CO experience governance breakdown and violent conflict, that include the interferences of external actors (state and non-state). WP1 will also preliminarily identify tipping points from risks and challenges related to areas of limited statehood and contested orders to threats to the EU, its member states, and citizens.
WP4 will develop and situate the conceptual framework regarding ALS/CO in the geopolitical, economic and social contexts of the regions surrounding the EU. Task 4.1 will feed back into the work of WP1 and will be conducted in collaboration with WP1. This sets the ground for Task 4.2 by (1) identifying lessons learned from past cases of ALS/CO deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent conflict as well as successful resilience-building configurations of factors, and (2) informing the selection of case studies for Task 4.2. Moreover and based on the conceptual framework, Task 4.1 will formulate a template with questions for the carrying out of the case studies in Task 4.2 so as to insure their comparability.
WP2 will employ surveying techniques, such as those utilised by the US-based Political Instability Task Force, for efficiently communicating the results of quantitative risk assessment models to workshop participants in a manner that allows the quantitative results inform workshop discussions. Drawing on these methods, WP2 will design a methodology for the foresight workshop process. Crucially, we will also pilot techniques that furthermore allow results from the workshop to feed into improvement of the quantitative models.
Carnegie will set up a blog, as powerful dissemination medium, within WP7. Further details will be provided in EU-LISTCOs deliverable “Plan for exploitation and dissemination of project results”. The project will leverage the popularity of the blog by introducing a regular spotlight to an issue of con-cern to the project with consortium members writing on a specific issue or study being undertaken by the project.
Organisation of a public event in Brussels with contribution from all partners.
The project website will be developed as a web-based platform designed for external communication and dissemination. This will include providing public access to project’s events and research activities employing a specific tool provided by CIDOB – data visualisation – to render the research data and statistics gathered by the consortium members accessible to the wider public and making research results available in an easily understandable format.
The virtual event will showcase the conclusions and recommendations to be produced by the consortium members and will promote the project among targeted transatlantic stakeholders.
The virtual Eastern regional forum will feature high-level representatives from Eastern Europe and relevant policy figures in the West in order to discuss the key problems dominating Europe’s East agenda and present the project findings to the policymaking community, conflict and security experts, and regional civil society. The virtual forum will serve to feed regional stakeholder insights and analyses into the collaborative effort of the consortium partners. Dissemination of research products (working papers and reports) through the virtual forum will fully leverage EU-LISTCO’s unparalleled global network and standing to reach the key movers and shakers in relevant regional policy- and thought-leader circles. The report on the Eastern forum (D7.12) will be merged with the report on the Southern forum (D7.13) and submitted as a combined deliverable.
A virtual regional forum of high-level representatives from the Middle East and relevant European stakeholders will take place in order to discuss the key issues dominating the MENA agenda and present the project findings to the policymaking community, foreign and security policy professionals, and regional civil society. The forum will serve to feed regional stakeholder insights and analyses into the collaborative effort of the consortium partners. Dissemination of research products (working papers and reports) through the virtual forum will fully leverage EU-LISTCO’s unparalleled global network and standing to reach the key movers and shakers in relevant regional policy- and thought-leader circles. The report on the Southern forum (D7.13) should be merged with the report on the Eastern forum (D7.12) and submitted as a combined deliverable.
Author(s): Elyssa Shea, Marta Jaroszewicz
Published in: East European Politics, Issue 37/1, 2021, Page(s) 159-181, ISSN 2159-9165
Author(s): David Cadier, Kacper Szulecki
Published in: International Politics, Issue 57/6, 2020, Page(s) 990-1011, ISSN 1384-5748
Author(s): Sarah Bressan, Aurora Bergmaier
Published in: Democratization, 2021, Page(s) 1-18, ISSN 1351-0347
Author(s): Eric Stollenwerk
Published in: Democratization, 2021, Page(s) 1-22, ISSN 1351-0347
Author(s): Pol Bargués, Pol Morillas
Published in: Democratization, 2021, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 1351-0347
Author(s): Pol Bargués
Published in: Review of International Studies, Issue 46/2, 2020, Page(s) 237-255, ISSN 0260-2105
Author(s): Kornely Kakachia, Agnieszka Legucka, Bidzina Lebanidze
Published in: Democratization, 2021, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 1351-0347
Author(s): David Cadier
Published in: IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2019, 2019, Page(s) 34-40