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Europe's External Action and the Dual Challenges of Limited Statehood and Contested Orders


Report on resilience in ALS/CO

Report on conditions under which resilience in ALS/CO can be fostered and potential contributions by EU and its member states. WP1 will formulate hypotheses on the con-ditions under which state, societal, and re-gional resilience can be fostered to prevent ALS/CO from deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent con-flict or to re-store peace in post-conflict scenarios. Based on the identification of these enabling con-di-tions, WP1 will identify factors that the EU and its member states can influence to foster the resili-ence of ALS/CO.These hy-potheses will then inform the research tem-plates for the various case studies of ALS/CO carried out by EU-LISTCO.

EU-LISTCO Working Paper Series

The publications will present the research results of each WP. The EU-LISTCO working papers will have specific graphic design and visual identification. They will comply with common editorial stand-ards, i.e. 5.000-10.000 words with an abstract. They will include footnotes and references. Each of the papers will be reviewed by two referees from EU-LISTCO partners, the advisory board, or extra-project experts. All papers will be published in an electronic version (e.g. in PDF format) and will be freely available on the EU-LISTCO website. They will be also widely disseminated to academia, think tanks and official institutions through the EU-LISTCO communication and information services (web-site, newsletters, social media).

Conceptual paper on the preparadness of the EU and member states

WP5 will analyse security and defence instruments to be used in ALS/CO to foster resilience, including the CFSP and CSDP. WP5 will also examine diverging or converging approaches within the EU and the influence of external actors, in cooperation with WP6. Moreover, we will investigate broader external action instruments to act in ALS/CO and to foster resilience, including development assis-tance tools, migration, and other external relations policies. Finally, WP5 will assess the operationali-sation and implementation process of the EU Global Strategy and its contribution to address ALS/CO, to foster resilience, to respond to global and diffuse threats, and to improve the coherence of the EU external action, in cooperation with WP6. A workshop will take stock of the discussions on prepared-ness, capacities and instruments of EU and member states assessed in the case studies, in preparation for D5.6 and D5.7.

Background paper on capacities of the EU and member states

WP5 will conceptualise the preparedness of the EU and selected member states to act in ALS/CO, in cooperation with WP1. We will establish a framework for assessing the capacity of the EU and selected member states to prevent risks from becoming threats, to establish early warning capabilities, to facilitate peace agreements, foster reconciliation, restore sovereignty and promote multilateral agreements, regional cooperation and the involvement of international partners.

Background paper elaborating state of the art

The background paper elaborates further the conceptual framework of EU-LISTCO based on comprehensive literature reviews with regard to ALS/CO (e.g. hegemonic clash, ideological confrontation, collapse of established role-identities within regional systems). The following concepts central to EU-LISTCO require further clarification: (areas of) limited statehood, contested orders, from risks/challenges to security threats, governance breakdowns and violent conflict, resilience.

Working paper on quantitative risk assessment tool

The project team will design a methodology for the strategic policy design process based on strategic foresight methods. An initial stock taking of strategic foresight methods, collaborative policy design tools, and cutting-edge workshop techniques will inform the methodological design, building on some of the results of Task 2.1.

Contribution to EU-LISTCO conceptual framework

The paper will help develop and refine the EU-LISTCO conceptual framework by testing it against geopolitical and strategic global and diffuse threats. It will feed back into the work of WP1 and will be conducted in collaboration with WP1 and WP2.

EU-LISTCO Policy Paper Series

The papers will translate the results of academic research into practical recommendations in a short and concise manner, specifically designed to meet the needs of policy-makers. The EU-LISTCO policy papers will have specific graphic design and visual identification. They will comply with common editorial standards, i.e. 1.000-5.000 words with a short introduction, main argument section and ending with conclusions and recommendations. Using EU-LISTCO’s contact database, the policy papers will be disseminated directly to selected recipients from the EU institutions and EU member states involved in the decision-making process and implementation of the EU’s external action towards areas of lim-ited statehood and contested orders.


Carnegie will ensure that regular updates on EU-LISTCO's latest publications, events and news will be distributed through regular biannual newsletters.

Report developing hypotheses and case studies templates

The report will develop hypotheses guiding EU-LISTCO’s empirical research. This refers to conditions under which ALS/CO experience governance breakdown and violent conflict, that include the interferences of external actors (state and non-state). WP1 will also preliminarily identify tipping points from risks and challenges related to areas of limited statehood and contested orders to threats to the EU, its member states, and citizens.

Operationalisation of the conceptual framework for analysing ALS/CO in the EU's surroundings

WP4 will develop and situate the conceptual framework regarding ALS/CO in the geopolitical, economic and social contexts of the regions surrounding the EU. Task 4.1 will feed back into the work of WP1 and will be conducted in collaboration with WP1. This sets the ground for Task 4.2 by (1) identifying lessons learned from past cases of ALS/CO deteriorating into governance breakdown and violent conflict as well as successful resilience-building configurations of factors, and (2) informing the selection of case studies for Task 4.2. Moreover and based on the conceptual framework, Task 4.1 will formulate a template with questions for the carrying out of the case studies in Task 4.2 so as to insure their comparability.

Working Paper setting out WP2's methodologies

WP2 will employ surveying techniques, such as those utilised by the US-based Political Instability Task Force, for efficiently communicating the results of quantitative risk assessment models to workshop participants in a manner that allows the quantitative results inform workshop discussions. Drawing on these methods, WP2 will design a methodology for the foresight workshop process. Crucially, we will also pilot techniques that furthermore allow results from the workshop to feed into improvement of the quantitative models.

EU-LISTCO Series of Blog Pieces

Carnegie will set up a blog, as powerful dissemination medium, within WP7. Further details will be provided in EU-LISTCOs deliverable “Plan for exploitation and dissemination of project results”. The project will leverage the popularity of the blog by introducing a regular spotlight to an issue of con-cern to the project with consortium members writing on a specific issue or study being undertaken by the project.

EU-LISTCO Research Database

The project website will be developed as a web-based platform designed for external communication and dissemination. This will include providing public access to project’s events and research activities employing a specific tool provided by CIDOB – data visualisation – to render the research data and statistics gathered by the consortium members accessible to the wider public and making research results available in an easily understandable format.

EU-LISTCO website

Carnegie will manage the EU-LISTCO website and social media activities