Skip to main content
Go to the home page of the European Commission (opens in new window)
English en
CORDIS - EU research results
CORDIS

HOW DO SEASONAL CYCLES SHAPE LIFE CYCLES? A UNIFYING FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND VARIATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE AND PREDICT SHIFTS IN A CHANGING WORLD

Project description

How changes to the seasons due to climate change will affect biological activity

Climate change has distorted the length of the warm "growing" season (i.e. summer) around the world, causing a shift in the timing of seasonal biological activity (phenology). The EU-funded CyclesOfLife project will develop a framework that unites the evidence with ecological and evolutionary principles to understand the source of variations and forecast continued phenological shifts. This framework will be based on quantitative tools from life-history theory and evolutionary demography and validated at the global scale with Big Data. It will use the gradient of growing season lengths that exists across the planet's latitudes to test the relationship between season length and phenology and predict how phenology might continue to change in the future under different climate change scenarios.

Objective

Seasonal fluctuations occur throughout the planet. Ecosystems and humans alike exhibit and depend crucially on species' phenology, the timing of seasonal biological activity. Climate change has been distorting the length of the warm ‘growing’ season (i.e. summer) around the world. The resulting 'phenological shifts' comprise the most dramatic and well-documented symptom of climate change. However, phenological research has focused on idiosyncratic case studies of shifts with proximate explanations. A unifying framework that ties together the disparate body of evidence with ecological and evolutionary principles has been lacking, making it difficult to understand the source of variations and forecast continued phenological shifts. CyclesOfLife will establish such a framework and make timely use of big data to test the framework at an ambitious, global scale. I will build the theoretical backbone based on a novel approach I developed recently, which leverages quantitative tools from life-history theory and evolutionary demography to calculate natural selection dynamics of phenological traits in cyclically fluctuating environments. Armed with the theoretical framework, I will utilize the gradient of growing season lengths that exists across the planet's latitudes as a 'natural experiment' to test the relationship between season length and phenology. I will analyze demographic and phenological big data now available openly online to inform, test, and refine this theoretical relationship. Lastly, with deepened understanding of how growing season length around the world shapes phenology, I will make predictions of how phenology might continue to change in the future under different climate change scenarios. Beyond meeting the research objectives, the fellowship will enable my training in eco-evolutionary theory and big data science at Oxford, both powerful and timely skills needed for my career development as a leading researcher in phenology and evolutionary demography.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Keywords

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

See all projects funded under this funding scheme

Call for proposal

(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2020

See all projects funded under this call

Coordinator

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
Net EU contribution
€ 212 933,76
Address
WELLINGTON SQUARE UNIVERSITY OFFICES
OX1 2JD Oxford
United Kingdom
Region
South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Oxfordshire
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 212 933,76