Skip to main content

ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts

Objective

Prediction of both natural climate variability and human impact on climate is inherently probabilistic, due to uncertainties in forecast initial conditions, representation of key processes within models, and climatic forcing factors. Hence, reliable estimates of climatic risk can only be made through ensemble integrations of Earth - System Models in which these uncertainties are explicitly incorporated. For the first time ever, a common ensemble forecast system will be developed for use across a range of timescales (seasonal, decadal, and longer) and spatial scales (global, regional, and local). This model system will be used to construct integrated scenarios of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilisation scenarios. This will provide a basis for quantitative risk assessment of climate change and climate variability, with emphasis on changes in extremes, including changes in storminess and precipitation, and the severity and frequency of drought, and the effects of "surprises", such as the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. Most importantly, the model system will be extensively validated. Hind casts made by the model system for the 20th century will be compared against quality-controlled, high-resolution girded datasets for Europe. Probability forecasts made with the model system on the seasonal and decadal timescales will also be validated against existing data. The exploitation of the results will be maximised by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a wide range of applications. In turn, feedbacks from these impact areas back to the climate system will also be addressed. Thus ENSEMBLES will have a structuring effect on European research by bringing together an unprecedented spectrum of world-leading expertise. This expertise will be mobilised to maintain and extend European pre-eminence in the provision of policy-relevant information on climate and climate change and its interactions with society.

Field of science

  • /natural sciences/earth and related environmental sciences/atmospheric sciences/climatology/climatic changes

Call for proposal

FP6-2002-GLOBAL-1
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

IP - Integrated Project

Coordinator

MET OFFICE
Address
Fitzroy Road
Exeter
United Kingdom

Participants (72)

METEO FRANCE, CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES
France
Address
Avenue G. Coriolis, 42
Toulouse
CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
France
Address
3, Rue Michel-ange
Paris
DANMARKS METEOROLOGISKE INSTITUT.
Denmark
Address
Lyngbyvej 100
Copenhagen
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
United Kingdom
Address
Shinfield Park
Reading
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
Austria
Address
Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg
ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA
Italy
Address
V. Di Vigna Murata 605
Rome
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT
Netherlands
Address
Wilhelminalaan 10
201 De Bilt
UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL
United Kingdom
Address
Tyndall Avernue, Senate House
Bristol
MAX PLANCK GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V.
Germany
Address
Hofgartenstr. 8
Muenchen
NATIONAL OBSERVATORY OF ATHENS
Greece
Address
Lofos Nymfon
200 48 Thission, Athens
SVERIGES METEOROLOGISKA OCH HYDROLOGISKA INSTITUT
Sweden
Address
Folkborgsvägen 1
Norrköping
UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA
United Kingdom
Address
University Plain
Norwich
UNIVERSITE DE FRIBOURG
Switzerland
Address
Avenue De L'europe 20
Fribourg
UNIVERSITÄT HAMBURG
Germany
Address
Moorweidenstrasse 18
Hamburg
UNIVERSITY OF READING
United Kingdom
Address
Whiteknights
217 Reading
AGENZIA REGIONALE PER LA PREVENZIONE E L'AMBIENTE DELL'EMILIA-ROMAGNA, SERVIZIO METEOROLOGICO REGIONALE'
Italy
Address
Viale Silvani 6
Bologna
ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI
Greece
Address
Administration Building - University Campus
Thessaloniki
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE
Australia
Address
150 Lonsdale Street
PO Box 1289K Melbourne
CENTRE EUROPEAN POUR LE RECHERCHE ET LA FORMATION AVANCEE EN CALCUL SCIENTIFIQUE
France
Address
42 Avenue G. Coriolis
Toulouse
CESKY HYDROMETEOROLOGICKY USTAV
Czechia
Address
Na Sabatce 17
Prague 4 - Komorany
CICERO SENTER FOR KLIMAFORSKNING
Norway
Address
Sognsveien 68
1129 Oslo
CLIMPACT
France
Address
12 Rue Belzunce
Paris
CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
Italy
Address
Piazzale Aldo Moro 7
Roma
UNIVERZITA KARLOVA V PRAZE
Czechia
Address
Ovocny Trh 5
Praha 1
DANMARKS JORDBRUGSFORSKNING
Denmark
Address
Research Centre Foulum
Tjele
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI FIRENZE
Italy
Address
Piazza San Marco 4
Florence
DEUTSCHER WETTERDIENST
Germany
Address
Frankfurter Str. 135
Offenbach
ELECTRICITÉ DE FRANCE
France
Address
22-30 Avenue De Wagram
Paris
ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE
France
Address
45, Rue D'ulm
Paris
EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH
Switzerland
Address
Raemistrasse 101
Zurich
FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI
Italy
Address
Corso Magenta 63
Milano
FUNDACIÓN PARA LA INVESTIGACIÓN DEL CLIMA
Spain
Address
Mar Egeo 10
Majadahonda
ILMATIETEEN LAITOS
Finland
Address
Vuorikatu 24
503 Helsinki
FACHHOCHSCHULE FUER TECHNIK STUTTGART
Germany
Address
Willi-bleicher Str. 24
Stuttgart
FREIE UNIVERSITAET BERLIN
Germany
Address
Kaiserswerther Strasse 16-18
Berlin
GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM GEESTHACHT GMBH
Germany
Address
Max-planck-strasse 1
Geesthacht
USTAV FYZIKY ATMOSFERY AV CR, V.V.I.
Czechia
Address
Bocni Ii, 1401
Praha 4
THE ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS
Italy
Address
Strada Costiera 11
586 Trieste
INSTITUT FUER MEERESKUNDE AN DER UNIVERSITAET
Germany
Address
Duesternbrooker Weg 20
Kiel
INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA
Spain
Address
Calle Leonardo Prieto Castro 8
285 Madrid
THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK
United States
Address
1210 Amsterdam Avenue Mc 2205
New York, Ny
INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE KURT BOESCH
Switzerland
Address

4176 Sion 4
UNIVERSITÄT STUTTGART
Germany
Address
Keplerstraße 7
Stuttgart
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES - DIRECTORATE GENERAL JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
Belgium
Address
Rue De Loi 200
Brussels
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
United Kingdom
Address
Houghton Street
London
LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE
United Kingdom
Address
Keppel St.
London
METEOROLOGISK INSTITUTT
Norway
Address
Niels Henrik Abels Vei 40
43 Blindern Oslo
METEOSCHWEIZ
Switzerland
Address
Krähbühlstrasse 58
514 Zürich
STIFTELSEN NANSEN SENTER FOR FJERNMAALING
Norway
Address
Thormohlensgate 47
Bergen
INSTITUTUL NATIONAL DE HIDROLOGIE SI GOSPODARIRE A APELOR BUCURESTI
Romania
Address
Bucuresti-ploiesti, 97
Bucharest
ADMINISTRATIA NATIONALA DE METEOROLOGIE
Romania
Address
Sos. Bucuresti-ploiesti 97
Bucharest
RESEARCH CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENVIRONMENT, POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Poland
Address
Bukowska 19
Poznan
POTSDAM-INSTITUT FÜR KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG E.V.
Germany
Address
Telegrafenberg A31
60 12 03 Potsdam
RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEID EN MILIEU
Netherlands
Address
Antonie Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven
SOCIÉTÉ DE MATHÉMATIQUES APPLIQUÉES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES
France
Address
9, Rue Duban
Paris
SUOMEN YMPARISTOKESKUS
Finland
Address
Mechelininkatu 34 A
140 Helsinki
UNIVERSIDAD DE CANTABRIA
Spain
Address
Pabellón De Gobierno, Avda. De Los Castros, S/n
Santander
UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN
Belgium
Address
Place De L'université, 1
Louvain-la-neuve
UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA LA MANCHA
Spain
Address
Plaza De La Universidad 2
Albacete
UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
Norway
Address
Problemveien 7
1072 Blindern Oslo
LUNDS UNIVERSITET
Sweden
Address
Paradisgatan 5C
117 Lund
UNIVERSITÄT KASSEL
Germany
Address
Mönchebergstr. 19
Kassel
UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL
United Kingdom
Address
Senate House, Abercromby Square
Liverpool
THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom
Address
University Offices, Wellington Square
Oxford
WEATHER INFORMATICS LTD
United Kingdom
Address
Science And Technology Centre, Earley Gate, Whiteknights Road
Reading
UNIVERSITE JOSEPH FOURIER GRENOBLE 1
France
Address

Grenoble Cedex
MET EIREANN
Ireland
Address
Glasnevin Hill
Dublin 9
UNIVERSITAET BERN
Switzerland
Address
Hochschulstrasse 4
Bern
LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT FUER MEERESWISSENSCHAFTEN AN DER UNIVERSITAET KIEL
Germany
Address
Wischhofstrasse 1-3
Kiel
UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE
Switzerland
Address
24 Rue Du Général-dufour
Geneve 4
PLANBUREAU VOOR DE LEEFOMGEVING (NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY)
Netherlands
Address
Antoine Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven
AARHUS UNIVERSITET
Denmark
Address
Nordre Ringgade 1
Aarhus C