Objective A range of advanced modelling approaches has been used so far to assess the impact of global change on biodiversity and ecosystems. These assessments include advanced socio-economic scenarios and yield projections of the distribution of species, communities and biomes and the functioning of ecosystems. Future goods and services are then assessed from these projections.However, four main limitations remain associated with these approaches:1. Knowledge and data of past species' distribution is still limited, yet necessary for testing them in the past before projecting them to the future2. We miss sound estimates of species' long distance migration rates in order to assess whether species will be able to keep pace with rapid global change3. Some key assumptions of models, such as niche stability over time and/or space, are not well tested4. We need more reliable estimate of uncertainties in model predictions.Our project specifically proposes to go one step further by:1. Integrating different modelling app roaches currently in use (niche-based, dynamic, dispersal, etc.), and by developing robust methodologies to estimate uncertainties associated with these projections2. Generating required new data (palaeo & migration) by using innovative DNA-based appr oaches, and global change scenarios3. Testing niche conservatism and temporal evolution of biological communities4. Using the new data in improved and integrated models to make projections more robust and realistic5. Testing these approaches in case study areas and expanding the current projections to all of Europe.Our consortium encompasses a wide spectrum of skills required to meet these objectives. Our final goal is to provide data, scenarios and associated confidence limits so that policy markers and land managers can use them for anticipating societal problems and for designing sustainable conservation strategies by accounting the most likely global change effects on biodiversity and ecosystems. Fields of science natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems Keywords DNA-based biodiversity data global change projections uncertainties sampling strategy Programme(s) FP6-SUSTDEV - Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems: thematic priority 6 under the Focusing and Integrating Community Research programme 2002-2006. Topic(s) SUSTDEV-2005-3.III.1.1 - Develop model(s) and simulation(s) to assess and forecast changes in terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems Call for proposal FP6-2005-GLOBAL-4 See other projects for this call Funding Scheme IP - Integrated Project Coordinator CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE EU contribution No data Address Rue Michel-Ange 3 PARIS France See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data Participants (23) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all EIDGENOESSISCHE FORSCHUNGSANSTALT WSL Switzerland EU contribution No data Address Zuercherstrasse 111 BIRMENSDORF See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data SERI - NACHHALTIGKEITSFORSCHUNGS UND -KOMMUNIKATIONS GMBH Austria EU contribution No data Address Garnisongasse 7/27 WIEN See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data KOBENHAVNS UNIVERSITET Denmark EU contribution No data Address Norregade 10 KOBENHAVN See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITETET I OSLO Norway EU contribution No data Address Problemveien 5-7 OSLO See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON United Kingdom EU contribution No data Address University Road, Highfield SOUTHAMPTON See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITAET BASEL Switzerland EU contribution No data Address Petersplatz 1 BASEL See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data INSTYTUT BOTANIKI IM. WLADYSLAWA SZAFERA, POLSKA AKADEMIA NAUK Poland EU contribution No data Address Ul. Lubicz 46 KRAKOW See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data INSTITUTUL DE CERCETARI BIOLOGICE CLUJ-NAPOCA Romania EU contribution No data Address Republicii, 48 CLUJ-NAPOCA See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data MEDIAS FRANCE France EU contribution No data Address Cnes, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin TOULOUSE See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data V.I.N.C.A. - INSTITUT FUER NATURSCHUTZFORSCHUNG UND OEKOLOGIE GMBH Austria EU contribution No data Address Giessergasse 6/7 WIEN See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITETET I TROMSOE Norway EU contribution No data Address Breivika TROMSOE See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data TARTU UELIKOOL Estonia EU contribution No data Address Ülikooli 18 TARTU See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS Spain EU contribution No data Address Calle Serrano 117 MADRID See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIWERSYTET IM. ADAMA MICKIEWICZA W POZNANIU Poland EU contribution No data Address ul. Henryka Wieniawskiego 1 POZNAN See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITEIT Netherlands EU contribution No data Address Costerweg 50 WAGENINGEN See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE Belgium EU contribution No data Address Place du 20 Aout 7 LIEGE See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data ZOOLOGICAL INSTITUTE OF RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Russia EU contribution No data Address Universitetskaya Nab 1 SINT PETERSBURG See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA United Kingdom EU contribution No data Address University Plain NORWICH See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data STICHTING DIENST LANDBOUWKUNDIG ONDERZOEK Netherlands EU contribution No data Address Costerweg 50 9101 WAGENINGEN See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH United Kingdom EU contribution No data Address Old College, South Bridge EDINBURGH See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data LUNDS UNIVERSITET Sweden EU contribution No data Address Paradisgatan 5C Box 117 LUND See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITÄT ZÜRICH Switzerland EU contribution No data Address Raemistrasse 71 ZURICH See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data UNIVERSITÉ DE LAUSANNE Switzerland EU contribution No data Address Quartier UNIL-Centre, Bâtiment Unicentre LAUSANNE See on map Links Website Opens in new window Total cost No data