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Incorporating socio-economic indicators into VAR modelling of NIS economies: labour mobility and remittances

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The general aim of the project is to identify and quantify social and economic causes and effects of the cross-border labour mobility in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and associated with it financial flows (remittances). This will be done with the use of stochastic simulations on the multi-country econometric model with explicitly defined socio-economic indicators reflecting transformation processes in these countries. The inter-country empirical model already created for this region within the INTAS Programme 03-51-3714 will be developed further by the inclusion of forward-looking foreign exchange mechanism. Moreover, some of the variables quantified, so far, on purely economic grounds (relation between reformable and non-reformable labour and its dynamics) will be regarded as socio-economic rather than purely economic phenomena. Initially, the Project will run its socio-economic and modelling parts concurrently, where the model will be updated and modified and, simultaneously, the socio-economic variables will be prepared. After implementing these variables into the model, a series of simulation experiments will provide answers to the questions related to the relations between social groups mobility and labour mobility, possible impacts in the labour structure on the regional growth. Identified relations between remittances and labour flows would help to decide on the permanent or transitory nature of labour movements. The above analyses will be conduced under alternative assumptions regarding the possible political development in the region (monetary union between Belarus and Russia and 'economic war' between Russia and Ukraine).

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UNIVERSITY OF LEICESTER
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UNIVERSITY ROAD
LEICESTER
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Letzte Aktualisierung: 16 März 2017

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Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/INTAS2005-1000006-8440/de

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