Objective The A2C2 project treats two major challenges in climate and atmospheric research: the time dependence of the climate attractor to external forcings (solar, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic), and the attribution of extreme climate events occurring in the northern extra-tropics. The main difficulties are the limited climate information, the computer cost of model simulations, and mathematical assumptions that are hardly verified and often overlooked in the literature.A2C2 proposes a practical framework to overcome those three difficulties, linking the theory of dynamical systems and statistics. We will generalize the methodology of flow analogues to multiple databases in order to obtain probabilistic descriptions of analogue decompositions.The project is divided into three workpackages (WP). WP1 embeds the analogue method in the theory of dynamical systems in order to provide a metric of an attractor deformation in time. The important methodological step is to detect trends or persisting outliers in the dates and scores of analogues when the system yields time-varying forcings. This is done from idealized models and full size climate models in which the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are known.A2C2 creates an open source toolkit to compute flow analogues from a wide array of databases (WP2). WP3 treats the two scientific challenges with the analogue method and multiple model ensembles, hence allowing uncertainty estimates under realistic mathematical hypotheses. The flow analogue methodology allows a systematic and quasi real-time analysis of extreme events, which is currently out of the reach of conventional climate modeling approaches.The major breakthrough of A2C2 is to bridge the gap between operational needs (the immediate analysis of climate events) and the understanding long-term climate changes. A2C2 opens new research horizons for the exploitation of ensembles of simulations and reliable estimates of uncertainty. Fields of science natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdatabasesnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsdynamical systemsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Topic(s) ERC-AG-PE10 - ERC Advanced Grant - Earth system science Call for proposal ERC-2013-ADG See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-AG - ERC Advanced Grant Host institution COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES EU contribution € 1 491 457,00 Address RUE LEBLANC 25 75015 PARIS 15 France See on map Region Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Paris Activity type Research Organisations Administrative Contact Cecilia Garrec (Ms.) Principal investigator Pascal Yiou (Dr.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Total cost No data Beneficiaries (1) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES France EU contribution € 1 491 457,00 Address RUE LEBLANC 25 75015 PARIS 15 See on map Region Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Paris Activity type Research Organisations Administrative Contact Cecilia Garrec (Ms.) Principal investigator Pascal Yiou (Dr.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Total cost No data