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Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles

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Improving Europe's security responses

Europe needs to broaden its definition of external security threats, and address them in a unified way. An EU project has helped to improve Europe's preparedness for traditional and non-traditional threats.

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According to security researchers, European security policies are not those of a true federation, but rather separate national policies addressing old threats. A new model of European security preparedness proposes a unified approach, also considering non-traditional threats. Such was the purpose of the 'Foresight security scenarios: Mapping research to a comprehensive approach to exogenous EU roles' (FOCUS) project. The 13-member project ran for two years, and received EUR 3.4 million in EU funding. FOCUS aimed to define threat scenarios external to Europe that affect European internal security. Secondly, the project aimed to provide recommendations for dealing with such security scenarios. FOCUS considered its role considering the whole of Europe, addressing all foreseeable threats, including climate change and non-traditional threats. Project members set six main objectives. Three of these were to: identify new areas of security research, elaborate on the concept of transversality, and design and apply specific scenario approaches. The other three aimed to: produce an information technology (IT) information infrastructure, enhance transparency and understanding, and contribute to the planning of broader European security research. FOCUS helped provide direction for future EU security research, aimed at helping the EU respond to future security challenges. The project concentrated on hypothetical scenarios affecting Europe from outside, offering suggestions about how Europe might respond. These IT-supported foresights were rooted in threat integration and a unified European approach.FOCUS also defined a future research programme that will be tasked with extending the results achieved to date. The project's main stated contribution was the development of effective tools for the prediction and assessment of potential threats till 2035. These were supported by the project's analyses. This IT-based knowledge platform includes scenario and reference wikis and a curriculum matrix for educating future security researchers. The FOCUS project has provided input for planning of security research to meet future EU needs. FOCUS outcomes are slated to lead to an EU-specific legal and compliance framework. As such, the EU should be more prepared for non-traditional external security threats in the future.>

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