Improved models for air quality Predicting future air quality depends on how the atmospheric circulation will evolve. An EU Marie Curie IEF project simulated circulation patterns affecting ozone, leading to improved understanding of models and processes and to better information for European policymakers. Climate Change and Environment © Thinkstock Coming changes in global climate will affect many atmospheric variables, of which one of the most important for air quality is ground-level ozone. Some low-altitude ozone descends from higher atmospheric layers; hence, predicting air quality also relies on knowing how the circulation will change under future climatic conditions. The objectives of the EU-funded CLIMBAIR project included: understanding changes to the exchange of air between the stratosphere and troposphere, and quantifying the effects of such changes on air quality. Additionally, the results were to be communicated to policymakers and other end users. Administered under the Seventh Framework Programme's (FP7) Marie Curie fellowship IEF sub-programme, the project ran for 16 months to July 2013. Modelling work highlighted trends in atmospheric circulation over the period 1980 to 2009. The trends revealed an uneven distribution, depending on altitude and latitude. Simulations were validated against recent satellite measurements, and showed good agreement. Planned analyses for other time periods are expected to explain discrepancies between observations and most existing climate models. Preliminary results have been presented at scientific conferences, and have prompted fruitful international collaboration. An additional element of the project was developing the researcher’s skills to communicate scientific findings to wider audiences. As a result, two short articles were written for a publication aimed at European policymakers and politicians. The CLIMBAIR project has contributed to the research community with improved understanding of atmospheric circulation trends, which will help towards a better prediction of changes in air quality. Project findings have also raised awareness among policy makers of the strong links that exist between climate change and air quality, and the need for coordinated strategies to tackle both issues. Keywords Air quality, atmospheric circulation, ozone changes, ground-level ozone, stratosphere, troposphere, climate models, Earth-system models.
