Forward thinking for grand societal challenges
The world faces many critical challenges today, mostly in connection to economic, social and environmental issues. How these will evolve in the future is uncertain. In light of this, the EU-funded FLAGSHIP (Forward looking analysis of grand societal challenges and innovative policies) project sought to illuminate the nature, level, probability and timing of such challenges. FLAGSHIP's focus was on EU policy responses to emerging transition challenges. Some of the objectives included understanding and assessing state-of-the-art methodologies for assessing grand societal challenges, producing a set of policy recommendations regarding the EU's transition for change and consolidating a conceptual framework. The project examined a wide range of forward-looking studies and then applied qualitative and quantitative methods in a coherent framework. The work produced a 'compass' to analyse important decisions and a limited number of 'totem' indicators to monitor progress. The consortium also reviewed the existing literature related to thematic areas and identified the primary relevant megatrends, challenges, opportunities and threats for Europe in the world context. The results were derived from current policy and scientific debates. Following this, the analysis generated explorative storylines of perseverance (with current policies and paradigms) versus metamorphosis (as a result of paradigm shifts in societal and policy behaviour) scenarios for four thematic areas: demography, technology and information and communications technology, economy and environment. Additionally the project questioned the current framing of Europe's grand societal challenges by comparing its seven challenge categories and detailed dimensions with those that can be elicited from the anticipatory knowledge arising in speculative and creative fiction's (novels and films) imagination of the future and its challenges. The study highlighted how fiction sees oppression, inequality, and a range of ethical issues linked to human and nature's dignity as central to and inseparable from innovation, technology and science. Dissemination activities included a website and other tools as well as activities such as workshops. The information generated via forward-looking analysis studies can help to manage future situations in a more efficient and sustainable way. By assessing the timing and occurrence of a particular event, preparing for the future in a more cautious manner is made possible and offers the opportunity to try and tackle related challenges.
Keywords
Grand societal challenges, transition and change, FLAGSHIP, forward looking, policies
