Advanced modelling facilitates volcanic forecasting
This project focused on gaining a better understanding of volcanic processes for risk forecasting and hazard assessment. Towards this purpose, modern multi-parameter monitoring techniques were developed that provided data sets to feed modelling procedures. Part of the modelling work involved numerical codes describing the magmatic processes concerning the flow in volcanic conduits in extrusive and explosive eruptions. More specifically, there were two major mathematical models generated. The first modelling approach represents transient explosive flows in conduits after an enormous change of pressure that leads to explosive eruptions. The way that molecular diffusion specifies the eruption's characteristics was of particular interest. With the aid of this modelling approach, it was shown that there is a broad range of short-lived explosions to long-lasting and maintained explosive discharges. The second modelling attempt describes conduit flows in extrusive eruptions, where there are several non-linear feedbacks in the systems. Thereby, a more realistic parameterisation of crystal growth kinetics was also included. With the aid of this model the ability of volcanic systems to own multiple regimes was confirmed. Between these regimes even slight changes of conditions close to transition points could have a major impact on the volcanic systems. These computer models are still under investigation for further improvement. They are to be ultimately integrated with models of magma chamber dynamics and elastic deformations of volcanic conduits. It is expected that their use in combination with multi-parameter data sets will greatly improve the reliability of volcano forecasting methods. Thus, civil decision-making and emergency management will become more effective in the fight against volcanic hazards.
