Global modelling
Energy systems analysis and economics, provide an insight into the energy domain, allowing the exploration of the impact of R&D actions on technological developments. The SAPIENTIA project, Systems Analysis for Progress and Innovation in Energy Technologies for Integrated Assessment, employed methodologies based on energy systems analysis. This was done in order to analyze both medium and longer-term power generation technologies. In the context of SAPIENTIA, the PROMETHEUS model has been extended to the longer term. The PROMETHEUS model is a stochastic model of the world energy system. It provides strategic and analytical information on risks and probabilities regarding the variables incorporated in the model. Such variables are energy supply and demand, emissions, international fuel prices, power plant capacities, electricity generation by plants, reserves of oil and gas. This extension has entailed the re-designing of model mechanisms with regard to the identification and introduction of new technologies. PROMETHEUS now covers a more detailed transportation sector and incorporates a Hydrogen Production, Storage and Delivery sub-model. Furthermore PROMETHEUS allows the capturing of all key interactions such as how climate change may affect climate policy intensity. Similarly, it allows for the interconnection of impacts of R&D actions taking into account their uncertain nature. In this way, R&D options such as renewable and CO2 capture technologies are affected by energy costs and the carbon value (climate policy intensity). PROMETHEUS has been extended to incorporate technology dynamics for 51 technological options for electricity production, hydrogen production and passenger cars. These include capital costs parameters, fixed costs, variable cost parameters and efficiency parameters. Performing experiments on key energy technologies and analyzing their results can provide essential input to policy makers and stakeholders in decision making on R&D in sustainable development.
