Forecasts to aid wind power integration
Errors in forecasting significantly reduce the value of wind power as a renewable energy resource due to its negative impact on the electricity grid. A significant level of error can occur in cases of extreme weather, resulting in damage to turbines and blackouts of the electricity grid. Short-term forecasts of wind generation are necessary to properly manage power supply and its integration into the electricity grid. To date, forecasts are for 'usual' operating conditions rather than extreme events. However, end users require prior warning of violent gusts that result in sudden changes of wind speed and direction, which can cause excessive loads on turbines. The SAFEWIND project researched short-term forecasting of wind power to facilitate the large-scale integration of wind energy into electricity networks. The aim was to significantly improve wind power predictions by reducing error and by predicting extreme weather events from the local level up to the European level. SAFEWIND has improved predictability over very short-time horizons ranging between 5 and 60 minutes, hourly periods over 2–3 days and over the long term of 10 days or more. In addition, the project improved wind prediction at the local, regional and European scales. Local predictions can warn wind farms of extreme gusts that can result in loss of energy and structural damage. Regional and European-wide predictions can warn of extreme events and their potential impact on the grid, including large-scale failure and blackouts. The consortium comprises of companies and research institutes that supply software and services related to wind forecasting and power system management. Successful outcomes will thus help them compete in the global market place in the energy sector as well as aid in planning new wind farms.
