Ukraine model for emission reductions
The 'Regulation of air pollution and economic growth in Ukraine: general equilibrium approach' (CGEUKR) project explored the trends of economic growth and air pollution with a view to providing an integrated assessment of the two. The EU-funded team members also investigated the economic implications of emission reduction policies at both national and international levels. Major achievements included construction of a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model of the county’s economy, and development of a hybrid model relevant to the electricity sector. The latter was used to evaluate alternative post-2012 national carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction targets. A full assessment was also provided of health effects of certain air pollutants and mitigation policies for Ukraine as well as the European Union. Study results indicated that mitigation policies in Ukraine to 2020 would have moderate economic cost, foster growth of the least energy-intensive industries and offer non-negligible improvements in health. Assessing related benefits to health pointed to a possible 3 % decline in mortality in the same time frame. The development of an up-to-date database of non-CO2 air pollutants linked to sectoral outputs and fuel consumption offers a promising tool for assessing environmental impacts, as well as helping policy analysis for application in a wider context. Project work and outcomes can be used to facilitate climate change negotiations for the adoption of tighter emission targets by other former Soviet Union (FSU) countries as well. With the benefit of insight into the pros and cons of various methodologies granted by the project, future research can now be better guided in this area of investigation.
