Climate change models for Africa
Africa is vulnerable to the unpredictability caused by an unstable climate for many reasons. These include a broad range of ecological and geographical environments, a lack of socioeconomic development and a lack of appropriate modelling tools. With this in mind, the CLIMAFRICA(opens in new window) (Climate change predictions in sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts and adaptations) project was established. Its aim was to improve climate predictions for SSA and to assess climate impacts in key socioeconomic sectors such as water and agriculture. Project partners developed and deployed modelling tools to assess the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. From these, more sophisticated models were developed, including a multilayer model of soil moisture that enabled researchers to study the relationships between rainfall and soil moisture for the first time. Furthermore, models were used to predict carbon and water flux across the continent up to the year 2100, as well as predict the yield of major crops such as sorghum, maize and millet. These and other models and information were incorporated into a medium-term warning system (MTWS) for food security in Africa. The MTWS together with the socioeconomic results can be used to identify areas and groups of most concern, in terms of vulnerability of ecosystems and civil population. A comprehensive analysis of CLIMAFRICA results integrated with other results can be used to determine the resilience to climate change of water resources and different crop systems. It can also be used to propose better use of land and risk management practices to mitigate negative impacts. This information, if linked with appropriate capacity-building initiatives, will allow better preparedness in the face of climate change. This in turn will help to support the development of resilient communities. Project results can also contribute to the development of interactive user-friendly tools for climate change predictions from the seasonal to decadal scales. These results will provide data on the impacts on crop productivity, thereby enabling farmers to plan climate smart agricultural decisions based on crop species or varieties, planting times, water input and other strategies. The project's video(opens in new window) is available online.
