The top two threats that could cause human extinction
Thirty-seven leaders in health, economics, security and technology, collectively referred to as the Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, identified 17 interconnected catastrophic threats to global health from 2025 to 2100. The threats range from disease, social and economic conditions to environmental change, technology and conflict. Drawing on health study data, they estimated the total years of good health people around the world could lose from different threats causing sickness, disability or early death. They urge world leaders to take targeted action to prevent worst-case scenarios. The findings were published in the journal ‘The Lancet’(opens in new window).
The future remains entirely unwritten
The Commission found that if things don’t change, these threats could cost humanity tens of billions of years of good health. Among the risks identified, nuclear conflict and AI misuse were singled out as the two threats that could actually cause humans to go extinct. “The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act,” Christopher Murray, co-chair of the new commission and director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told ‘CNN’(opens in new window). “Across all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. But delaying action will only serve to shift and increase the costs into the future.” However, the aim of the commission isn’t to rank threats but to inspire action at every level to safeguard humanity’s health and future. “Recent global events show us just how quickly stability can give way to crisis, and how costly it is to respond only after disaster strikes. And the global threats to health risk amplifying existing inequalities, with the greatest burden falling on the most vulnerable communities. Yet the future is not inevitable,” explained Commission co-chair Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund. “Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations.” The report shows that trust is essential for meaningful action, acting as a stabilising force that helps societies anticipate, mitigate and adapt to crises. In contrast, widespread distrust only makes the risks worse. Beside trust, several other factors will determine how societies respond to threats. These include global teamwork, secure food systems and fairer societies.
Rethinking how to address crises
Instead of focusing on isolated issues, global health efforts must unite to tackle complex, interconnected threats, points out a related editorial(opens in new window) by ‘The Lancet’. “Much health advocacy is driven by single-issue activism. Communities with a common interest—from AIDS to child health, climate to tobacco control—focus intensely on their own domain. And understandably so. Important progress has been made through often courageous direct action. But this sharply competitive approach is … dangerously flawed. Indeed, perhaps the most important contribution of this Commission is to move global health beyond the consideration of individual harms. … The unpleasant reality is that the threats we face are multiple, complex, and difficult.”
