Periodic Reporting for period 2 - POPCLIMA (Population Dynamics under Global Climate Change)
Période du rapport: 2023-07-01 au 2024-12-31
The project aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on population dynamics and project into the future the trajectories of human population, accounting for future climate change. To achieve this, the project first empirically assesses the impact of climatic factors on fertility, mortality, and migration. These findings will be used to formulate assumptions about future population dynamics. This exercise is highly important because none of the existing national and global population projections have taken into account the potential climate feedback on population. The failure to account for climate change may affect the reality of demographic trajectories and can misrepresent future population dynamics.
POPCLIMA is structured into four research strands. A summary of the work performed is provided below.
Strand 1: Climate change effects on fertility
Two sub-projects have been carried out under Strand 1.
1) Impact of climatic factors on fertility in low- and middle-income countries
1.1 Climate change impacts on fertility in low- and middle-income countries: An analysis based on global subnational data (PI with Côme Cheritel & Roman Hoffmann)
1.2 Assessing the impact of temperature anomalies on fertility: A municipality-level analysis of birth rates in Mexico (1985-2020) (Itza Akari Olguín Zúñiga & PI with Côme Cheritel)
2) Climate change concern and fertility intention in European countries (Cross-sectional survey data)
2.1 Are climate change concerns related to fertility intentions and for whom? Evidence from five European countries (Irene Frageri, Francesca Zanasi & PI with Francesca Luppi and Alessandro Rosina)
2.2 Environmental uncertainty and fertility intentions: Reflections and first evidence from the Italian case (Chiara Puglisi & PI with Daniel Vignoli)
A manuscript has been submitted to the Special Issue “The Inequality of Uncertainty” of GENUS.
Strand 2: Climate change effects on mortality
Three sub-projects have been carried out under Strand 2.
1) Spatial and socio-economic heterogeneities in climate-related mortalities: A systematic literature review (Sirinya Kaikeaw, William Kemp, Rosanna Gualdi & PI)
2) Empirical analysis of exposure to temperature extremes on morbidity and mortality and heterogeneities in European countries
2.1 Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe (Francesca Zanasi with Risto Conte Keivabu)
This work is published in:
Zanasi, F., & Keivabu, R. C. (2024). Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre)
2.2 Geography and sex heterogeneity in temperature related deaths in Europe (Rosanna Gauldi with Risto Conte Keivabu).
A draft paper is currently being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed journal.
2.3 Regional and sociodemographic heterogeneities and heat-related mortality (led by Simon Llyod, PI and other colleagues).
This work is published in:
Lloyd, S. J., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Achebak, H., Hajat, S., Muttarak, R., Striessnig, E., & Ballester, J. (2023). The direct and indirect influences of interrelated regional-level sociodemographic factors on heat-attributable mortality in Europe: Insights for adaptation strategies. Environmental Health Perspectives, 131(8), 087013.
3) Assessing the harvesting effect following extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy (Vinod Joseph & PI with Risto Conte Keivabu, Emilio Zagheni & Stefano Mazzucco)
4) Reconsidering the impact of population aging on heat-related mortality using prospective age measure (Led by Simon Lloyd with PI and other colleagues).
Lloyd, S. J., Striessnig, E., Muttarak, R., KC, S., & Ballester, J. (2024). Avoiding overestimates of climate risks from population ageing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 1–6.
Lloyd, S. J., Striessnig, E., Achebak, H., Hajat, S., Muttarak, R., Quijal-Zamorano, M., et al. (2024). Remeasuring the influence of ageing on heat-related mortality in Spain, 1980 to 2018. Environmental Research, 248, 118408.
Strand 3: Climate change effects on migration
Three sub-projects have been carried out under Strand 3.
1) Climate change, aridity, and internal migration: Evidence from census microdata for 72 countries (PI with Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede & Marco Percoco)
This previous version of the paper is published as a working paper.
Hoffmann, R., Abel, G., Malpede, M., Muttarak, R., & Percoco, M. (2023). Climate change, aridity, and internal migration: Evidence from census microdata for 72 countries (No. WP-23-008). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
The manuscript is accepted for publication in Nature Climate Change.
2) Unpacking the relationships between climatic shocks and conflict on migration intentions (Will Kemp, Jacopo Bassetto, & PI with Roman Hoffmann & Simone Ghislandi)
3) Migration estimates at high spatial resolution
This work is published in:
Niva, V., Horton, A., Virkki, V., Heino, M., Kosonen, M., Kallio, M., Kinnunen, P., Abel, G.J. Muttarak, R., Taka, M., Varis, O. & Kummu, M. (2023). World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(11), 2023–2037.
Strand 4: Forecasting future population under future climate change
Strand 4 requires both conceptual and methodological development, as well as empirical inputs from the other three strands. Two works have been carried out to support Strand 4.
1) Methodological development
- High-resolution modelling and projecting local dynamics of differential vulnerability to urban heat stress (Led by Iulia Marginean with Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Roman Hoffmann, PI, Jing Gao & Anne Sophie Daloz)
The manuscript is revised and resubmitted to Earth’s Future.
2) Conceptual development
2.1 Review of population projections used in the IPCC reports (Led by Sara Giarola with Leonardo Chiani, Laurent Drouet, Giacomo Marangoni, Francesco Nappo, PI & Massimo Tavoni)
Published in Giarola, S., Chiani, L., Drouet, L., Marangoni, G., Nappo, F., Muttarak, R., & Tavoni, M. (2024). Underestimating demographic uncertainties in the synthesis process of the IPCC. npj Climate Action, 3(1), 1–20.
2.2 Overview of population and environment nexus
Published in:
Muttarak, R. (2024). Population and climate change: Decent living for all without compromising climate mitigation. UN Chronicle, (March 2024). https://www.un.org/en/population-climate-change-decent-living-all-without-compromising-climate-mitigation(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre).
Muttarak, R. (in print). Towards a better understanding of the role of population policies in tackling climate change. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2024.
2.3 Overview of the impact of climate change on population dynamics
See collection of presentations at: popclima.eu/news
Strand 1: Climate change effects on fertility
Two sub-projects have been carried out under Strand 1.
1) Impact of climatic factors on fertility in low- and middle-income countries
1.1 Climate change impacts on fertility in low- and middle-income countries: An analysis based on global subnational data (PI with Côme Cheritel & Roman Hoffmann)
1.2 Assessing the impact of temperature anomalies on fertility: A municipality-level analysis of birth rates in Mexico (1985-2020) (Itza Akari Olguín Zúñiga & PI with Côme Cheritel)
2) Climate change concern and fertility intention in European countries (Cross-sectional survey data)
2.1 Are climate change concerns related to fertility intentions and for whom? Evidence from five European countries (Irene Frageri, Francesca Zanasi & PI with Francesca Luppi and Alessandro Rosina)
2.2 Environmental uncertainty and fertility intentions: Reflections and first evidence from the Italian case (Chiara Puglisi & PI with Daniel Vignoli)
A manuscript has been submitted to the Special Issue “The Inequality of Uncertainty” of GENUS.
Strand 2: Climate change effects on mortality
Three sub-projects have been carried out under Strand 2.
1) Spatial and socio-economic heterogeneities in climate-related mortalities: A systematic literature review (Sirinya Kaikeaw, William Kemp, Rosanna Gualdi & PI)
2) Empirical analysis of exposure to temperature extremes on morbidity and mortality and heterogeneities in European countries
2.1 Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe (Francesca Zanasi with Risto Conte Keivabu)
This work is published in:
Zanasi, F., & Keivabu, R. C. (2024). Extreme temperatures and morbidity in old age in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1553/p-8z36-6mmj(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre)
2.2 Geography and sex heterogeneity in temperature related deaths in Europe (Rosanna Gauldi with Risto Conte Keivabu).
A draft paper is currently being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed journal.
2.3 Regional and sociodemographic heterogeneities and heat-related mortality (led by Simon Llyod, PI and other colleagues).
This work is published in:
Lloyd, S. J., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Achebak, H., Hajat, S., Muttarak, R., Striessnig, E., & Ballester, J. (2023). The direct and indirect influences of interrelated regional-level sociodemographic factors on heat-attributable mortality in Europe: Insights for adaptation strategies. Environmental Health Perspectives, 131(8), 087013.
3) Assessing the harvesting effect following extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy (Vinod Joseph & PI with Risto Conte Keivabu, Emilio Zagheni & Stefano Mazzucco)
4) Reconsidering the impact of population aging on heat-related mortality using prospective age measure (Led by Simon Lloyd with PI and other colleagues).
Lloyd, S. J., Striessnig, E., Muttarak, R., KC, S., & Ballester, J. (2024). Avoiding overestimates of climate risks from population ageing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 1–6.
Lloyd, S. J., Striessnig, E., Achebak, H., Hajat, S., Muttarak, R., Quijal-Zamorano, M., et al. (2024). Remeasuring the influence of ageing on heat-related mortality in Spain, 1980 to 2018. Environmental Research, 248, 118408.
Strand 3: Climate change effects on migration
Three sub-projects have been carried out under Strand 3.
1) Climate change, aridity, and internal migration: Evidence from census microdata for 72 countries (PI with Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede & Marco Percoco)
This previous version of the paper is published as a working paper.
Hoffmann, R., Abel, G., Malpede, M., Muttarak, R., & Percoco, M. (2023). Climate change, aridity, and internal migration: Evidence from census microdata for 72 countries (No. WP-23-008). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
The manuscript is accepted for publication in Nature Climate Change.
2) Unpacking the relationships between climatic shocks and conflict on migration intentions (Will Kemp, Jacopo Bassetto, & PI with Roman Hoffmann & Simone Ghislandi)
3) Migration estimates at high spatial resolution
This work is published in:
Niva, V., Horton, A., Virkki, V., Heino, M., Kosonen, M., Kallio, M., Kinnunen, P., Abel, G.J. Muttarak, R., Taka, M., Varis, O. & Kummu, M. (2023). World’s human migration patterns in 2000–2019 unveiled by high-resolution data. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(11), 2023–2037.
Strand 4: Forecasting future population under future climate change
Strand 4 requires both conceptual and methodological development, as well as empirical inputs from the other three strands. Two works have been carried out to support Strand 4.
1) Methodological development
- High-resolution modelling and projecting local dynamics of differential vulnerability to urban heat stress (Led by Iulia Marginean with Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Roman Hoffmann, PI, Jing Gao & Anne Sophie Daloz)
The manuscript is revised and resubmitted to Earth’s Future.
2) Conceptual development
2.1 Review of population projections used in the IPCC reports (Led by Sara Giarola with Leonardo Chiani, Laurent Drouet, Giacomo Marangoni, Francesco Nappo, PI & Massimo Tavoni)
Published in Giarola, S., Chiani, L., Drouet, L., Marangoni, G., Nappo, F., Muttarak, R., & Tavoni, M. (2024). Underestimating demographic uncertainties in the synthesis process of the IPCC. npj Climate Action, 3(1), 1–20.
2.2 Overview of population and environment nexus
Published in:
Muttarak, R. (2024). Population and climate change: Decent living for all without compromising climate mitigation. UN Chronicle, (March 2024). https://www.un.org/en/population-climate-change-decent-living-all-without-compromising-climate-mitigation(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre).
Muttarak, R. (in print). Towards a better understanding of the role of population policies in tackling climate change. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2024.
2.3 Overview of the impact of climate change on population dynamics
See collection of presentations at: popclima.eu/news
By far, there is no comprehensive empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on three demographic processes: fertility, mortality, and migration, like the work of this project. After consolidating this evidence, the next step is to perform population projections accounting for the climatic impact documented in the empirical work.