Description du projet
Examiner les dynamiques des populations face au changement climatique mondial
Les impacts du changement climatique sur la santé, le bien-être et les moyens de subsistance se font déjà ressentir. Il apparaît donc raisonnable d’assumer que les modifications climatiques peuvent influencer les processus démographiques, à travers la fertilité, la mortalité et les migrations, soit les trois indicateurs clés à l’origine des évolutions démographiques. Toutefois, jusqu’à aujourd’hui, les projections mondiales n’ont jamais tenu compte des effets possibles du changement climatique sur les tendances démographiques. Le projet POPCLIMA, financé par l’UE, comblera de manière exhaustive cette lacune de la recherche en étudiant comment le changement climatique influence les données démographiques ainsi qu’en identifiant les mécanismes, en examinant les impacts différentiels sur les sous-groupes de populations, et en prévoyant les futures dynamiques de populations face aux modifications du climat. Les résultats aideront la communauté scientifique à établir des scénarios de tendances démographiques plus réalistes face au rythme rapide du changement climatique.
Objectif
This study is the first to comprehensively address the impacts of climate change (CC) on population trends. Existing studies on population and CC focus either on the effects of population growth on CC or on identification of populations at risks to climatic hazards. There is virtually no literature on the mechanisms and the extent to which CC affects and will affect demographic outcomes. It is even not clear whether CC may increase or decrease fertility, mortality and migration. Being the first study to comprehensively and systematically address this issue, this project is very timely given that CC impacts have already been felt and are forecast to be much stronger in the future.
The project has four main objectives: 1) to study the way (direction and extent) in which CC influences demographic outcomes; 2) to examine the differential impacts of CC on subgroups of populations; 3) to identify the mechanisms through which CC influences demographic outcomes; 4) to forecast future population dynamics under climate change.
The project will analyse fertility, mortality and migration separately, using a variety of methodologies and datasets. Results from these analyses will then be used to inform the population projections under future CC scenarios. Our methodological approach is innovative. We will utilise and combine geo-referenced climate, demographic and socioeconomic data from different data sources (surveys and social media data) at the individual-, regional and country-level. Structural equation models are employed to identify the causal pathways and machine learning method is used to handle large-scale data.
Results will be particularly important for: 1) helping the scientific community in building more realistic scenarios about populations trends under the rapid pace of CC; 2) informing the international debate over the social costs of CC; and 3) providing a set of estimations useful to design better social and environmental policies.
Champ scientifique
Programme(s)
Régime de financement
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantInstitution d’accueil
40126 Bologna
Italie