Epidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe

Deliverables

Metadata describing the research data to facilitate re-use by other consortia and groups (attached to D1.3 in terms of the timeline with the same target users) after review by the steering committee Time of delivery - Update within 30 days of new data collection

Algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Software deliverable: Algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of 2019-nCoV epidemic (M3, target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

2019-nCoV data repository

Data repository containing all research data generated during the project (starting M1 with regular updates, target users: other EpiPose WP researchers, scientific community, PH authorities) for internal use as well as for sharing after review by the steering committee (see WP6). Updates within 30 days of new data collection

Real-time epidemic risk assessment tool

Real-time epidemic risk assessment tool (M1, target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

Updated Data lake with survey, platform and social media data provided

Report on impact of information exposure on collective attention

Report on impact of information exposure on collective attention (month 12)

Report summarising spread of co-circulating pathogens comparing meta-population models and IBM as part of O3.3

Report summarising spread of cocirculating pathogens comparing metapopulation models and IBM as part of O33

Inventory of results

Inventory of results (M 1-36 bi-monthly)

Report summarising dissemination activities year 2
Report on effect of 2019-nCoV on social contact patterns in 20 European populations

Report on effect of 2019nCoV on social contact patterns in European populations including results on the prolonged data collection in Belgium

Updated report on impact of information exposure on collective attention
report summarising dissemination activities year 3
Report summarising full set of interventions and comparison with modelling results based on Branching processes (O3.2)

Report summarising full set of interventions and comparison with modelling results based on Branching processes O32

Report summarising impact of interventions on co-circulation using the IBM, i.e. the results of O3.3.

Report summarising impact of interventions on cocirculation using the IBM ie the results of O33

Improved methods and estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Improved methods and estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemic. We will provide robust methods that are insensitive to/or can identify occasional outliers, suffer little bias and are most informative for public health decision making. Target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

Report summarising spread of 2019-nCoV in Europe from models in O3.1

Report summarising spread of 2019-nCoV in Europe from models in O3.1.

Dissemination plan

Dissemination plan to implement Task 6.1 (dissemination of methods and results) 6.2 (outreach to national and international stakeholders) and 6.3 (Communication via social media, newspapers etc)

Report summarizing real time updates under task 5.1 and 5.2

report summarizing real time updates under task 5.1 (disease burden and associated resource use) and 5.2 (macro-economic impact)

Report summarising dissemination activities year 1
Report summarizing task 5.1 and 5.2 activities

report summarizing task 5.1(disease burden and associated resource use) and 5.2 (macro-economic impact)

Final report summarizing accomplished task5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 activities

Final report summarizing accomplished task 51 disease burden resource use 52 macroeconomid impact and 53 costeffectiveness analysis activities

Report on the drivers of adherence with social distancing within and between different countries and on insights into differences in populations' risk perception based on quantitative analysis in extended Task 4.1.

Report on the drivers of adherence with social distancing within and between different countries and on insights into differences in populations risk perception based on quantitative analysis in extended Task 41

A detailed quantitative comparison of the efficacy of different combinations of social distance measures across most European countries as measured through real-time tracking of the reproduction number

Report on a detailed quantitative comparison of the efficacy of different combinations of social distance measures across most European countries as measured through realtime tracking of the reproduction number

Updated report on impact of information exposure on collective attention
Report summarising impact of initial set of interventions
Complete epidemiological assessment of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Epidemiological assessment during epidemic and in the aftermath of the epidemic Target users public health agencies scientific community

Interim activity report
Advice to public health

Advice to PH authorities in and outside the consortium on what data to collect (e.g. advisory documents, contribution to working groups) (M1 with regular updates, target users: other EpiPose WP researchers, scientific community, PH authorities)

modules on social contact patterns and risk behaviours to be integrated within participating Influenzanet partners

development of modules on social contact patterns and risk behaviours to be integrated within participating Influenzanet partners

Project website

Public website available to release updates of project outputs to lay public and press, when and where deemed appropriate by the SC.

Publications

Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection

Author(s): Thibaut Jombart, Stéphane Ghozzi, Dirk Schumacher, Timothy J. Taylor, Quentin J. Leclerc, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche, Felix Greaves, Tom Ward, Rosalind M. Eggo, Emily Nightingale, Sophie Meakin, Oliver J. Brady, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Graham F. Medley, Michael Höhle, and W. John Edmunds
Published in: The royal society B, 2021, ISSN 0962-8436
Publisher: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0266

Dynamics of non-household contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 in the Netherlands

Author(s): Jantien A. Backer, Laurens Bogaardt, Philippe Beutels, Pietro Coletti, W. John Edmunds, Amy Gimma, Cheyenne C. E. van Hagen, Niel Hens, Christopher I. Jarvis, Eric R. A. Vos, James Wambua, Denise Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort & Jacco Wallinga
Published in: Scientific Reports, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32031-7

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis

Author(s): Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Dianne Egli-Gany, Michel J. Counotte, Stefanie Hossmann, Hira Imeri, Aziz Mert Ipekci, Georgia Salanti, Nicola Low
Published in: PLOS Medicine, Issue 17/9, 2020, Page(s) e1003346, ISSN 1549-1676
Publisher: PLOS Medicine
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346

The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment

Author(s): Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kevin van Zandvoort, Kerry L. M. Wong, W. John Edmunds
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 19/1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01924-7

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe

Author(s): Anthony Hauser, Michel J. Counotte, Charles C. Margossian, Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Nicola Low, Christian L. Althaus, Julien Riou
Published in: PLOS Medicine, Issue 17/7, 2020, Page(s) e1003189, ISSN 1549-1676
Publisher: PLOS
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189

How can early stage economic evaluation help guide research for future vaccines?

Author(s): Newall AT, Beutels P, Tuffaha HW, Hall PS, Jit M
Published in: Vaccine, 2022, ISSN 0264-410X
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.017

Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review

Author(s): Nuru Saadi; Y-Ling Chi; Srobana Ghosh; Rosalind M Eggo; Ciara V McCarthy; Matthew Quaife; Jeanette Dawa; Jeanette Dawa; Mark Jit; Anna Vassall
Published in: BMC Med, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.21.21259104

Long-term health-related quality of life in non-hospitalised COVID-19 cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: Longitudinal analysis and cross-sectional comparison with controls

Author(s): Sandmann FG, Tessier E, Lacy J, Kall M, Van Leeuwen E, Charlett A, Eggo RM, Dabrera G, Edmunds WJ, Ramsay M, Campbell H, Amirthalingam G, Jit M.
Published in: Clin Infect Dis, 2022, ISSN 1537-6591
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac151

Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data

Author(s): Nicolas Franco; Pietro Coletti; Lander Willem; Leonardo Angeli; Adrien Lajot; Abrams Steven; Philippe Beutels; Christel Faes; Niel Hens
Published in: Plos Computational Biology, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: Plos
DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.10.21264753

Impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 on contacts and mixing patterns: repeated cross-sectional surveys, the Netherlands, 2016–17, April 2020 and June 2020

Author(s): Jantien A Backer, Liesbeth Mollema, Eric RA Vos, Don Klinkenberg, Fiona RM van der Klis, Hester E de Melker, Susan van den Hof, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 26/8, 2021, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.8.2000994

Continuous population-level monitoring of SARSCoV-2 seroprevalence in a large Europeanmetropolitan region

Author(s): Marc Emmenegger, Elena De Cecco, David Lamparter, Raphaël P. B. Jacquat, Julien Riou, Dominik Menges, Tala Ballouz, Daniel Ebner, Mathias M. Schneider, Itzel Condado Morales, Berre Doğançay, Jingjing Guo, Anne Wiedmer, Julie Domange, Marigona Imeri, Rita Moos, Chryssa Zografou, Leyla Batkitar, Lidia Madrigal, Dezirae Schneider, Chiara Trevisan, Andres Gonzalez-Guerra, Alessandra Carrella, Ir
Published in: iScience, 2023, ISSN 2589-0042
Publisher: Cell Press Elsevier Inc.
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105928

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Author(s): Andrew Clark, Mark Jit, Charlotte Warren-Gash, Bruce Guthrie, Harry H X Wang, Stewart W Mercer, Colin Sanderson, Martin McKee, Christopher Troeger, Kanyin L Ong, Francesco Checchi, Pablo Perel, Sarah Joseph, Hamish P Gibbs, Amitava Banerjee, Rosalind M Eggo, Emily S Nightingale, Kathleen O'Reilly, Thibaut Jombart, W John Edmunds, Alicia Rosello, Fiona Yueqian Sun, Katherine E Atkins, Nikos I Bosse
Published in: The Lancet Global Health, Issue 8/8, 2020, Page(s) e1003-e1017, ISSN 2214-109X
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30264-3

Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland

Author(s): Nikos I. Bosse ,Sam Abbott,Johannes Bracher,Habakuk Hain,Billy J. Quilty,Mark Jit,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group,Edwin van Leeuwen,Anne Cori,Sebastian Funk
Published in: PLOS Computational Biology, 2022, ISSN 1553-734X
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010405

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

Author(s): Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann,a Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer,a Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill,Claudia Hanson, Pirta Hotulainen, Peter Klimek, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Tyll Krüger, Jenny Krutzinna, Nicola Low, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins, Martin McKee, Sebastian Bernd Mohr, Armin Nassehi, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185

Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

Author(s): Christopher I. Jarvis, Kevin Van Zandvoort, Amy Gimma, Kiesha Prem, Petra Klepac, G. James Rubin, W. John Edmunds
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8

Time between Symptom Onset, Hospitalisation and Recovery or Death: Statistical Analysis of Belgian COVID-19 Patients

Author(s): Christel Faes, Steven Abrams, Dominique Van Beckhoven, Geert Meyfroidt, Erika Vlieghe, Niel Hens
Published in: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Issue 17/20, 2020, Page(s) 7560, ISSN 1660-4601
Publisher: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17207560

Evaluation of home detection algorithms on mobile phone data using individual-level ground truth

Author(s): Luca Pappalardo, Leo Ferres, Manuel Sacasa, Ciro Cattuto, Loreto Bravo
Published in: EPJ Data Science, Issue 10/1, 2021, ISSN 2193-1127
Publisher: EPJ Data Science
DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00284-9

Multi-country collaboration in responding to global infectious disease threats: lessons for Europe from the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Jit M, Ananthakrishnan A, McKee M, Wouters OJ, Beutels P, Teerawattananon Y.
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2021, ISSN 2666-7762
Publisher: Elsivier
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100221

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

Author(s): Tapiwa Ganyani, Cécile Kremer, Dongxuan Chen, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 25/17, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.17.2000257

Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

Author(s): James D. Munday, Katharine Sherratt, Sophie Meakin, Akira Endo, Carl A. B. Pearson, Joel Hellewell, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Katherine E. Atkins, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Albert Jan van Hoek & Sebastian Funk
Published in: Nature Communications, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22213-0

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study

Author(s): Michael J. Tildesley; Anna Vassall; Steven Riley; Mark Jit; Frank Sandmann; Edward M. Hill; Robin N. Thompson; Benjamin D. Atkins; John Edmunds; Louise Dyson; Matt J. Keeling
Published in: Royal Society Open Science, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2054-5703
Publisher: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211746

Computational strategies to combat COVID-19: useful tools to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus research.

Author(s): Franziska Hufsky; Kevin Lamkiewicz; Alexandre Almeida; Abdel Aouacheria; Cecilia N. Arighi; Alex Bateman; Jan Baumbach; Niko Beerenwinkel; Christian Brandt; Marco Cacciabue; Sara Chuguransky; Oliver Drechsel; Robert D. Finn; Adrian Fritz; Stephan Fuchs; Georges Hattab; Anne-Christin Hauschild; Dominik Heider; Marie Hoffmann; Martin Hölzer; Stefan Hoops; Lars Kaderali; Ioanna Kalvari; Max von Klei
Published in: Brief Bioinform, Issue 39, 2021, ISSN 1477-4054
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/bib/bbaa232

Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile

Author(s): Nicolò Gozzi, Michele Tizzoni, Matteo Chinazzi, Leo Ferres, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22601-6

Survival among people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Switzerland: a nationwide population-based analysis

Author(s): Nanina Anderegg, Radoslaw Panczak, Matthias Egger, Nicola Low, and Julien Riou
Published in: BMC Medicine, 2022, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02364-7

Poor self-reported adherence to COVID-19-related quarantine/isolation requests, Norway, April to July 2020

Author(s): Steens Anneke, Freiesleben de Blasio Birgitte, Veneti Lamprini, Gimma Amy, Edmunds W John, Van Zandvoort Kevin, Jarvis Christopher I, Forland Frode, Robberstad Bjarne.
Published in: Eurosurveillance, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: ECDC
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.37.2001607

A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

Author(s): Pietro Coletti, Pieter Libin, Oana Petrof, Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Sereina A. Herzog, Christel Faes, Elise Kuylen, James Wambua, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases, Issue 21/1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2334
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06092-w

A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Zurich, Switzerland

Author(s): Dominik Menges, Hélène E. Aschmann, André Moser, Christian L. Althaus, Viktor von Wyl
Published in: Jama Network Open, 2021, ISSN 0098-7484
Publisher: American Medical Association
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.8184

Assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of household-pooled universal testing to control COVID-19 epidemics

Author(s): Pieter J. K. Libin, Lander Willem, Timothy Verstraeten, Andrea Torneri, Joris Vanderlocht, Niel Hens
Published in: PLOS Computational Biology, Issue 17/3, 2021, Page(s) e1008688, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: PLOS Computational Biology
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008688

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

Author(s): Ciara V. McCarthy, Oscar O’Mara, Edwin van Leeuwen, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Mark Jit & Frank Sandmann
Published in: BMC Public Health, 2022, ISSN 1471-2458
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

Risk factors associated with the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness: data from a web-based syndromic surveillance system in the Netherlands

Author(s): Scott A. McDonald, Cees C. van den Wijngaard, Cornelia C. H. Wielders, Ingrid H. M. Friesema, Loes Soetens, Daniela Paolotti, Susan van den Hof, Albert Jan van Hoek
Published in: Epidemiology and Infection, 2021, ISSN 0950-2688
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821001187

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

Author(s): Ciara McCarthy; Nikos I. Bosse; Christopher Jarvis; Nicholas Davies; Sam Abbott; Stefan Flasche; Mark Jit; Billy Quilty; Yang Liu; Simon Procter
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

Assessing real-world vaccine effectiveness against severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection: an observational study from routine surveillance data in Switzerland

Author(s): Nanina Anderegg, Christian L. Althaus, Samuel Colin, Anthony Hausera, Anne Laube, Mirjam Mäusezahl, Moritz Wagner, Biagio Zaffora, Julien Rioua
Published in: Swiss Medical Weekly, 2022, ISSN 1424-7860
Publisher: EMH Swiss Medical Publishers Ltd
DOI: 10.4414/smw.2022.w30163

A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Author(s): Andrea Torneri, Pieter Libin, Joris Vanderlocht, Anne-Mieke Vandamme, Johan Neyts, Niel Hens
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01636-4

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands.

Author(s): Scott A. McDonald; Fuminari Miura; Eric R.A. Vos; Michiel van Boven; Hester E. de Melker; Fiona R. M. van der Klis; Rob van Binnendijk; Gerco den Hartog; Jacco Wallinga
Published in: European Journal of Epidemiology, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 0393-2990
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

Pregnancy during COVID-19: social contact patterns and vaccine coverage of pregnant women from CoMix in 19 European countries

Author(s): Kerry L. M. Wong, Amy Gimma, Enny S. Paixao, CoMix Europe Working Group, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Christopher I. Jarvis & W. John Edmunds
Published in: BMC Pregnancy and child birth, 2022, ISSN 1471-2393
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12884-022-05076-1

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

Author(s): Marcus R. Keogh-Brown, Henning Tarp Jensen, W. John Edmunds, Richard D. Smith
Published in: SSM - Population Health, Issue 12, 2020, Page(s) 100651, ISSN 2352-8273
Publisher: ScienceDirect
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100651

Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions

Author(s): Mihaly Koltai, Fabienne Krauer, David Hodgson, Edwin van Leeuwen, Marina Treskova-Schwarzbach, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche
Published in: Epidemics, 2022, ISSN 1755-4365
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100614

Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Author(s): Kathleen McColl, Marion Debin, Cecile Souty, Caroline Guerrisi, Clement Turbelin, Alessandra Falchi, Isabelle Bonmarin, Daniela Paolotti, Chinelo Obi, Jim Duggan, Yamir Moreno, Ania Wisniak, Antoine Flahault, Thierry Blanchon, Vittoria Colizza, Jocelyn Raude
Published in: Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022, ISSN 1660-4601
Publisher: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19010436

Ceci n'est pas un lit. Base capacity healthcare matters in a pandemic

Author(s): Philippe Beutels, Frederik Verelst
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Issue 2, 2021, Page(s) 100033, ISSN 2666-7762
Publisher: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100033

The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study

Author(s): Billy J. Quilty, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu, Hamish Gibbs, Timothy W. Russell, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kiesha Prem, Carl A. B. Pearson, Samuel Clifford, Stefan Flasche, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Petra Klepac, Rosalind M. Eggo & Mark Jit
Published in: BMC Medicine, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9

Can COVID-19 symptoms as reported in a large-scale online survey be used to optimise spatial predictions of COVID-19 incidence risk in Belgium?

Author(s): Thomas Neyens, Christel Faes, Maren Vranckx, Koen Pepermans, Niel Hens, Pierre Van Damme, Geert Molenberghs, Jan Aerts, Philippe Beutels
Published in: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Issue 35, 2020, Page(s) 100379, ISSN 1877-5845
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2020.100379

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries

Author(s): Rajiv Chowdhury, Kevin Heng, Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon, Gabriel Goh, Daisy Okonofua, Carolina Ochoa-Rosales, Valentina Gonzalez-Jaramillo, Abbas Bhuiya, Daniel Reidpath, Shamini Prathapan, Sara Shahzad, Christian L. Althaus, Nathalia Gonzalez-Jaramillo, Oscar H. Franco
Published in: European Journal of Epidemiology, Issue 35/5, 2020, Page(s) 389-399, ISSN 0393-2990
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-020-00649-w

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Author(s): Billy J Quilty MSc, Samuel Clifford PhD, Joel Hellewell PhD, Timothy W Russell PhD, Adam J Kucharski PhD, Prof Stefan Flasche, Prof W John Edmunds
Published in: The Lancet Public Health, 2021, ISSN 2468-2667
Publisher: Elsevier ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30308-x

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Author(s): Yang Liu, Christian Morgenstern, James Kelly, Rachel Lowe, Mark Jit
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 19/1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01872-8

Socioeconomic position and the COVID-19 care cascade from testing to mortality in Switzerland: a population-based analysis

Author(s): Julien Riou, Radoslaw Panczak, Christian L Althaus, Christoph Junker, Damir Perisa, Katrin Schneider, Nicola G Criscuolo, Nicola Low, Matthias Egger
Published in: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00160-2

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Author(s): Mark Jit, Thibaut Jombart, Emily S Nightingale, Akira Endo, Sam Abbott, W John Edmunds
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 25/18, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.18.2000632

Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: An update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era

Author(s): Kiesha Prem,Kevin van Zandvoort,Petra Klepac,Rosalind M. Eggo,Nicholas G. Davies,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group ,Alex R. Cook,Mark Jit
Published in: Plos Computational Biology, 2021, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: Plos
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009098

The influence of risk perceptions on close contact frequency during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Author(s): James Wambua, Lisa Hermans, Pietro Coletti, Frederik Verelst, Lander Willem, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry L. M. Wong, Adrien Lajot, Stefaan Demarest, W. John Edmunds, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Published in: Scientific reports, 2022, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09037-8

Shorter serial intervals in SARS-CoV-2 cases with Omicron BA.1 variant compared with Delta variant, the Netherlands, 13 to 26 December 2021

Author(s): Jantien A Backer, Dirk Eggink, Stijn P Andeweg, Irene K Veldhuijzen, Noortje van Maarseveen, Klaas Vermaas, Boris Vlaemynck, Raf Schepers, Susan van den Hof, Chantal BEM Reusken, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: Eurosurveillance, 2022, ISSN 1025-496X
Publisher: Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA

The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation

Author(s): Frank G Sandmann, Nicholas G Davies, Anna Vassall, W John Edmunds, Mark Jit, Fiona Yueqian Sun, C Julian Villabona-Arenas, Emily S Nightingale, Alicia Showering, Gwenan M Knight, Katharine Sherratt, Yang Liu, Kaja Abbas, Sebastian Funk, Akira Endo, Joel Hellewell, Alicia Rosello, Rachel Lowe, Matthew Quaife, Amy Gimma, Oliver Brady, Jack Williams, Simon R Procter, Rosalind M Eggo, Yung-Wai Desmond
Published in: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Issue 21/7, 2021, Page(s) 962-974, ISSN 1473-3099
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00079-7

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

Author(s): Pietro Coletti, James Wambua, Amy Gimma, Lander Willem, Sarah Vercruysse, Bieke Vanhoutte, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kevin Van Zandvoort, John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-78540-7

Individual factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in between and during pandemic waves (July–December 2020)

Author(s): Sara Valckx, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Frederik Verelst, Maren Vranckx, Greet Hendrickx, NielHens, Pierre Van Damme, Koen Pepermans , Philippe Beutels, Thomas Neyens
Published in: Vaccine, 2022, ISSN 0264-410X
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.10.073

Quantification of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in Switzerland

Author(s): Chaoran Chen, Sarah Ann Nadeau, Ivan Topolsky, Marc Manceau, Jana S. Huismana, Kim Philipp Jablonski, Lara Fuhrmanna, David Dreifuss, Katharina Jahna, Christiane Beckmann, Maurice Redondo, Christoph Noppen, Lorenz Rische, Martin Risch, Nadia Wohlwend, Sinem Kas, Thomas Bodmer, Tim Roloff, Tanja Stadler
Published in: Epidemics, 2021, ISSN 1755-4365
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100480

Serial Intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants, Belgium, November 19–December 31

Author(s): Cécile Kremer, Toon Braeye, Kristiaan Proesmans, Emmanuel André, Andrea Torneri, and Niel Hens
Published in: Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2022, ISSN 1080-6059
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
DOI: 10.3201/eid2808.220220

Optimizing Benefits of Testing Key Workers for Infection with SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Author(s): Frank G Sandmann, Peter J White, Mary Ramsay, Mark Jit
Published in: Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2020, ISSN 1058-4838
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa901

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study

Author(s): Rosello, Alicia; Barnard, Rosanna,; Smith, David,; Evans, Stephanie; Grimm, Fiona; Davies, Nicholas,; Deeny, Sarah,; Knight, Gwenan,; Edmunds, W. John
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2022, ISSN 1471-2334
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07268-8

Determinants of basic childhood vaccination coverage in European and OECD countries

Author(s): Vladimira Varbanova, Frederik Verelst, Niel Hens & Philippe Beutels
Published in: Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 2022, ISSN 2164-5515
Publisher: Landes Bioscience
DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2123883

Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies

Author(s): Andrea Torneri, Lander Willem, Vittoria Colizza, Cécile Kremer, Christelle Meuris, Gilles Darcis, Niel Hens, Pieter Libin
Published in: eLife, 2022, ISSN 2050-084X
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications
DOI: 10.7554/elife.75593

COVID-19 outbreak response, a dataset to assess mobility changes in Italy following national lockdown

Author(s): Emanuele Pepe, Paolo Bajardi, Laetitia Gauvin, Filippo Privitera, Brennan Lake, Ciro Cattuto, Michele Tizzoni
Published in: Scientific Data, Issue 7/1, 2020, ISSN 2052-4463
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00575-2

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Author(s): Nicholas G. Davies, Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Christopher I. Jarvis, Adam J. Kucharski, James D. Munday, Carl A. B. Pearson, Timothy W. Russell, Damien C. Tully, Alex D. Washburne, Tom Wenseleers, Amy Gimma, William Waites, Kerry L. M. Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, Justin D. Silverman, Karla Diaz-Ordaz, Ruth Keogh, Rosalind M. Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Mark Jit, Katherine E. Atkins, W. John Edmunds
Published in: Science, Issue 372/6538, 2021, Page(s) eabg3055, ISSN 0036-8075
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055

Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020

Author(s): Woskie LR, Hennessy J, Espinosa V, Tsai TC, Vispute S, Jacobson BH, Cattuto C, Gauvin L, Tizzoni M, Fabrikant A, Gadepalli K, Boulanger A, Pearce A, Kamath C, Schlosberg A, Stanton C, Bavadekar S, Abueg M, Hogue M, Oplinger A, Chou K, Corrado G, Shekel T, Jha AK, Wellenius GA, Gabrilovich E.
Published in: Plos One, 2021, ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253071

Placing a value on increased flexible vaccine manufacturing capacity for future pandemics

Author(s): Anthony T. Newall, Philippe Beutels, Zoltán Kis, Adrian Towse, and Mark Jitf,
Published in: Vaccine, 2023, ISSN 0264-410X
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.02.065

Impact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021

Author(s): Martina L. Reichmuth, Emma B. Hodcroft, Julien Riou, Richard A. Neher, Niel Hens, Christian L. Althaus
Published in: Epidemics, 2022, ISSN 1755-4365
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100654

Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

Author(s): Emma B. Hodcroft, Moira Zuber, Sarah Nadeau, Timothy G. Vaughan, Katharine H. D. Crawford, Christian L. Althaus, Martina L. Reichmuth, John E. Bowen, Alexandra C. Walls, Davide Corti, Jesse D. Bloom, David Veesler, David Mateo, Alberto Hernando, Iñaki Comas, Fernando González-Candelas, SeqCOVID-SPAIN consortium, Tanja Stadler & Richard A. Neher
Published in: Nature, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03677-y

Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region: a mathematical modelling study

Author(s): Yang Liu, Frank G. Sandmann, Rosanna C. Barnard, Carl A.B. Pearson, Roberta Pastore, Richard Pebody, Stefan Flasche, MarkJit
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2022, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267

Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Author(s): G. Cencetti, G. Santin, A. Longa, E. Pigani, A. Barrat, C. Cattuto, S. Lehmann, M. Salathé, B. Lepri
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21809-w

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Author(s): Nicolò Gozzi, Michele Tizzani, Michele Starnini, Fabio Ciulla, Daniela Paolotti, André Panisson, Nicola Perra
Published in: Journal of Medical Internet Research, Issue 22/10, 2020, Page(s) e21597, ISSN 1438-8871
Publisher: Journal of medical Internet Research
DOI: 10.2196/21597

Impact of long-COVID on health-related quality of life in Japanese COVID-19 patients

Author(s): Shinya Tsuzuki, Yusuke Miyazato, Mari Terada, Shinichiro Morioka, Norio Ohmagari & Philippe Beutels
Published in: Health and Quality of Life Outcomes, 2022, ISSN 1477-7525
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12955-022-02033-6

Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study

Author(s): Amy Gimma ,James D. Munday,Kerry L. M. Wong,Pietro Coletti,Kevin van Zandvoort,Kiesha Prem,CMMID COVID-19 working group ,Petra Klepac,G. James Rubin,Sebastian Funk,W. John Edmunds,Christopher I. Jarvis
Published in: Plos Medicine, 2022, ISSN 1549-1277
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003907

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study

Author(s): Angel Paternina-Caicedo; Mark Jit; Nelson Alvis-Guzmán; Juan Carlos Fernández; José Hernández; Justo Jesus Paz-Wilches; José Rojas-Suarez; Carmelo Dueñas-Castell; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Adrian D. Smith; Fernando De La Hoz-Restrepo
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2667-193X
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100296

Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: a data-driven prioritization

Author(s): Fuminari Miura; Ka Yin Leung; Don Klinkenberg; Kylie E. C. Ainslie; Jacco Wallinga
Published in: PLoS Computational Biology, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 1553-7358
Publisher: PLOS
DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.20.21260889

Laplacian-P-splines for Bayesian inference in the mixture cure model

Author(s): Oswaldo Gressani, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Published in: Statistics in Medicine, 2022, ISSN 0277-6715
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/sim.9373

Global and national estimates of the number of healthcare workers at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Author(s): C.V. McCarthy, F.G. Sandmann, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, M. Jit
Published in: The journal of Hospital Infection, 2021, ISSN 0195-6701
Publisher: W. B. Saunders Co., Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2021.02.012

Attitudes towards booster, testing and isolation, and their impact on COVID-19 response in winter 2022/2023 in France, Belgium, and Italy: a cross-sectional survey and modelling study

Author(s): Giulia de Meijere Eugenio Valdano Claudio Castellano Marion Debin Charly Kengne-Kuetche Clément Turbelin Harold Noël Joshua S. Weitz Daniela Paolotti Lisa Hermans Niel Hens Vittoria Colizza
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health Europe, 2023, ISSN 2666-7762
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100614

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa

Author(s): Raquel Viana, Sikhulile Moyo, Daniel G. Amoako, Houriiyah Tegally, Cathrine Scheepers, Christian L. Althaus, Ugochukwu J. Anyaneji, Phillip A. Bester, Maciej F. Boni, Mohammed Chand, Wonderful T. Choga, Rachel Colquhoun, Michaela Davids, Koen Deforche, Deelan Doolabh, Louis du Plessis, Susan Engelbrecht, Josie Everatt, Jennifer Giandhari, Marta Giovanetti, Diana Hardie, Verity Hill, Nei-Yuan Hsiao
Published in: Nature, 2022, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group

Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, March 2020

Author(s): Frederik Verelst, Elise Kuylen, Philippe Beutels
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 25/13, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.13.2000323

Early evidence of effectiveness of digital contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland

Author(s): Marcel Salath, Christian Althaus, Nanina Anderegg, Daniele Antonioli, Tala Ballouz, Edouard Bugnon, Srdjan apkun, Dennis Jackson, Sang-Il Kim, Jim Larus, Nicola Low, Wouter Lueks, Dominik Menges, Cdric Moullet, Mathias Payer, Julien Riou, Theresa Stadler, Carmela Troncoso, Effy Vayena, Viktor von Wyl
Published in: Swiss Medical Weekly, 2020, ISSN 1424-3997
Publisher: Swiss Medical Weekly
DOI: 10.4414/smw.2020.20457

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS coronavirus 2 in Belgium – a serial prospective cross-sectional nationwide study of residual samples

Author(s): Sereina Herzog, Jessie De Bie, Steven Abrams, Ine Wouters, Esra Ekinci, Lisbeth Patteet, Astrid Coppens, Sandy De Spiegeleer, Philippe Beutels, Pierre Van Damme, Niel Hens, Heidi Theeten
Published in: Eurosurveillance, 2022, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125179

Modelling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories

Author(s): Steven Abrams, James Wambua, Eva Santermans, Lander Willem, Elise Kuylen, Pietro Coletti, Pieter Libin, Christel Faes, Oana Petrof, Sereina A. Herzog, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Published in: Epidemics, Issue 35, 2021, Page(s) 100449, ISSN 1755-4365
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100449

Dosing interval strategies for two-dose COVID-19 vaccination in 13 middle-income countries of Europe: Health impact modelling and benefit-risk analysis

Author(s): Yang Liu, Carl A.B. Pearson, Frank G. Sandmann, Rosanna C. Barnard, Jong-Hoon Kim, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Kaja Abbas
Published in: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2022, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100381

The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Author(s): Jon C Emery, Timothy W Russell, Yang Liu, Joel Hellewell, Carl AB Pearson, Katherine E Atkins, Petra Klepac, Akira Endo, Christopher I Jarvis, Nicholas G Davies, Eleanor M Rees, Sophie R Meakin, Alicia Rosello, Kevin van Zandvoort, James D Munday, W John Edmunds, Thibaut Jombart, Megan Auzenbergs, Emily S Nightingale, Mark Jit, Sam Abbott, David Simons, Nikos I Bosse, Quentin J Leclerc, Simon R Pr
Published in: eLife, Issue 9, 2020, ISSN 2050-084X
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications
DOI: 10.7554/elife.58699

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Author(s): Nicholas G Davies, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Amy Gimma, W John Edmunds, Thibaut Jombart, Kathleen O'Reilly, Akira Endo, Joel Hellewell, Emily S Nightingale, Billy J Quilty, Christopher I Jarvis, Timothy W Russell, Petra Klepac, Nikos I Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Sam Abbott, Graham F Medley, Hamish Gibbs, Carl A B Pearson, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Samuel Clifford, Kiesha Prem, Charlie Diamond
Published in: The Lancet Public Health, Issue 5/7, 2020, Page(s) e375-e385, ISSN 2468-2667
Publisher: The Lance Public Health
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30133-x

Authors’ response: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

Author(s): Cécile Kremer, Tapiwa Ganyani, Dongxuan Chen, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens
Published in: Eurosurveillance, Issue 25/29, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Publisher: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.29.2001269

Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Hamish Gibbs, Yang Liu, Carl A. B. Pearson, Christopher I. Jarvis, Chris Grundy, Billy J. Quilty, Charlie Diamond, Rosalind M. Eggo
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 11/1, 2020, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18783-0

Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions

Author(s): Cécile Kremer, Andrea Torneri, Sien Boesmans, Hanne Meuwissen, Selina Verdonschot, Koen Vanden Driessche, Christian L. Althaus, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Published in: Scientific Reports, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.27.20239657

Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Author(s): Timothy W Russell, Joseph T Wu, Sam Clifford, W John Edmunds, Adam J Kucharski, Mark Jit
Published in: The Lancet Public Health, Issue 6/1, 2021, Page(s) e12-e20, ISSN 2468-2667
Publisher: The Lancet Public Health
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30263-2

Socioeconomic determinants of mobility responses during the first wave of COVID-19 in Italy: from provinces to neighbourhoods

Author(s): Laetitia Gauvin; Paolo Bajardi; Emanuele Pepe; Brennan Lake; Filippo Privitera; Michele Tizzoni
Published in: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 1742-5662
Publisher: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.16.20232413

SOCRATES: An online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19

Author(s): Pietro Coletti; Philippe Beutels; Philippe Beutels; Lander Willem; Niel Hens; Niel Hens; Sebastian Funk; Thang Van Hoang
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 1756-0500
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.03.20030627

The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education

Author(s): Yessika Adelwin Natalia; Christel Faes; Thomas Neyens; Geert Molenberghs
Published in: Plos One, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264516

The burden of isolation to the individual: a comparison between isolation for COVID-19 and for other influenza-like illnesses in Japan

Author(s): Shinya Tsuzuki,Norio Ohmagari and Philippe Beutels
Published in: Epidemiology & Infection, 2021, ISSN 1469-4409
Publisher: Cambridge Core
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821002569

Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries – evidence from a two-year study

Author(s): Kerry L. M. Wong, Amy Gimma, Pietro Coletti, CoMix Europe Working Group, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Veronika K. Jaeger, Andre Karch, Helen Johnson, WJohn Edmunds & Christopher I. Jarvis
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2023, ISSN 1471-2334
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08214-y

An approximate Bayesian approach for estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number under misreported epidemic data

Author(s): Oswaldo Gressani, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Published in: Biometrical Journal, 2023, ISSN 0323-3847
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202200024

Exploring surveillance data biases when estimating the reproduction number: with insights into subpopulation transmission of COVID-19 in England

Author(s): Katharine Sherratt; Sam Abbott; Sophie Meakin; Joel Hellewell; James D Munday; Nikos I Bosse; Mark Jit; Sebastian Funk
Published in: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci., Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2970
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0283

Evidence for Influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study

Author(s): Naomi R. Waterlow; Michiko Toizumi; Edwin J. C. Van Leeuwen; Hien-Anh Thi Nguyen; Lay Myint-Yoshida; Rosalind M Eggo; Stefan Flasche
Published in: Plos Computational Biology, Issue 2, 2022, ISSN 1553-734X
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010234

A spatial model to jointly analyze self-reported survey data of COVID-19 symptoms and official COVID-19 incidence data

Author(s): Maren Vranckx, Christel Faes, Geert Molenberghs, Niel Hens, Philippe Beutels, Pierre Van Damme, Jan Aerts, Oana Petrof, Koen Pepermans, Thomas Neyens
Published in: Biometrical Journal, 2022, ISSN 0323-3847
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202100186

Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland

Author(s): Julien Riou, Anthony Hauser, Anna Fesser, Christian L. Althaus, Matthias Egger & Garyfallos Konstantinoudis
Published in: Nature Communications, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35770-9

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years

Author(s): Scott A. McDonald, Giske R. Lagerweij, Pieter de Boer, Hester E. de Melker, Roan Pijnacker, Lapo Mughini Gras, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, Gerco den Hartog, Arianne B. van Gageldonk-Lafeber, RIVM COVID-19 surveillance, epidemiology team, Susan van den f & Jacco Wallinga
Published in: European Journal of Epidemiology, 2022, ISSN 0393-2990
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-022-00895-0

Association of tiered restrictions and a second lockdown with COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions in England: a modelling study

Author(s): Nicholas G Davies, Rosanna C Barnard, Christopher I Jarvis, Timothy W Russell, Malcolm G Semple, Mark Jit, W John Edmunds
Published in: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Issue 21/4, 2021, Page(s) 482-492, ISSN 1473-3099
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30984-1

The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

Author(s): Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Pieter J. K. Libin, Pietro Coletti, Elise Kuylen, Oana Petrof, Signe Møgelmose, James Wambua, Sereina A. Herzog, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7

Effect of manual and digital contact tracing on COVID-19 outbreaks: a study on empirical contact data

Author(s): A. Barrat, C. Cattuto, M. Kivelä, S. Lehmann, J. Saramäki
Published in: Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Issue 18/178, 2021, ISSN 1742-5662
Publisher: Journal of The Royal Society Interface
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.1000

The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant

Author(s): David Hodgson, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Adam J Kucharski, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Published in: Eurosruveillance, 2021, ISSN 1025-496X
Publisher: Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.20.2100428

SOCRATES-CoMix: a platform for timely and open-source contact mixing data during and in between COVID-19 surges and interventions in over 20 European countries

Author(s): Frederik Verelst, Lisa Hermans, Sarah Vercruysse, Amy Gimma, Pietro Coletti, Jantien A. Backer, Kerry L. M. Wong, James Wambua, Kevin van Zandvoort, Lander Willem, Laurens Bogaardt, Christel Faes, Christopher I. Jarvis, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels & Niel Hens
Published in: BMC Medicine, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-02133-y

Replacement of the Gamma by the Delta variant in Brazil: Impact of lineage displacement on the ongoing pandemic

Author(s): Marta Giovanetti, Vagner Fonseca, Eduan Wilkinson, Houriiyah Tegally, Emmanuel James San, Christian L Althaus, Joilson Xavier, Svetoslav Nanev Slavov, Vincent Louis Viala, Alex Ranieri Jerônimo Lima, Gabriela Ribeiro, Jayme A Souza-Neto, Heidge Fukumasu, Luiz Lehmann Coutinho, Rivaldo Venancio da Cunha, Carla Freitas, Carlos F Campelo de A e Melo, Wildo Navegantes de Araújo, Rodrigo Fabiano Do C
Published in: Virus evolution, 2022, ISSN 2057-1577
Publisher: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/ve/veac024

Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools

Author(s): Endo, Akira; Uchida, Mitsuo; Liu, Yang; Atkins, Katherine E.; Kucharski, Adam J.; Funk, Sebastian; Abbas, Kaja; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Bosse, Nikos I; Waterlow, Naomi R; Tully, Damien C; Meakin, Sophie R; Quaife, Matthew; Russell, Timothy W; Jit, Mark; Foss, Anna M; Rosello, Alicia; Quilty, Billy J; Prem, Kiesha; Knight, Gwenan M; Abbott, Sam; Klepac, Petra; Brady, Oliver; Pearson, Carl A B; Medley
Published in: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 0250-541X
Publisher: National Academic of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203019119

Challenges in ensuring global access to COVID-19 vaccines: production, affordability, allocation, and deployment

Author(s): Olivier J Wouters, Kenneth C Shadlen, Maximilian Salcher-Konrad, Andrew J Pollard, FMedSci, Heidi J Larson, Yot Teerawattananon, Mark Jit
Published in: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Publisher: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00306-8

The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

Author(s): Matthew Quaife, Kevin van Zandvoort, Amy Gimma, Kashvi Shah, Nicky McCreesh, Kiesha Prem, Edwine Barasa, Daniel Mwanga, Beth Kangwana, Jessie Pinchoff, W. John Edmunds, Christopher I. Jarvis, Karen Austrian
Published in: BMC Medicine, Issue 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01779-4

Early Evidence of Effectiveness of Digital Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland

Author(s): Marcel Salathé; Christian L. Althaus; Nanina Anderegg; Daniele Antonioli; Tala Ballouz; Edouard Bugnon; Srdjan Capkun; Dennis Jackson; Sang-Il Kim; James R. Larus; Nicola Low; Wouter Lueks; Dominik Menges; Cédric Moullet; Mathias Payer; Julien Riou; Theresa Stadler; Carmela Troncoso; Effy Vayena; Viktor von Wyl
Published in: Swiss Medical Weekly, 150, Issue 1, 2020, Page(s) ISSN: 1424-3997, ISSN 1424-3997
Publisher: EMH Swiss Medical Publishers Ltd.
DOI: 10.7892/boris.150033

Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus

Author(s): Aziz Mert Ipekci, Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Kaspar Walter Meili, Fabienne Krauer, Nirmala Prajapati, Shabnam Thapa, Lea Wildisen, Lucia Araujo-Chaveron, Lukas Baumann, Sanam Shah, Tessa Whiteley, Gonzalo Solís-García, Foteini Tsotra, Ivan Zhelyazkov, Hira Imeri, Nicola Low, Michel Jacques Counotte
Published in: BMC Medical Research Methodology, Issue 21/1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2288
Publisher: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12874-021-01244-7

Towards a European strategy to address the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling , Simon Bauer , Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez d Sarah Cuschieri , Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis , Enrico Glaab , Eva Grill , Pirta Hotulainen , Emil N Iftekhar, Jenny Krutzinna, Christos Lionis, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins , Martin McKee, George N Pavlakis, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Barbara Prainsack, Joacim Rocklöv, Eva Schernhamme
Published in: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 1474-547X
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01808-0

Socio-demographic characteristics associated with COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Switzerland: longitudinal analysis of the CoMix study

Author(s): Martina L Reichmuth, Leonie Heron, Julien Riou, André Moser, Anthony Hauser, Nicola Low, Christian L Althaus
Published in: MedRxiv, 2023
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.13.23287183

Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Author(s): Christian L. Althaus, Daniel Probst, Anthony Hauser, Julien Riou
Published in: MedRxiv, 2020
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.21.20158014

Key performance indicators of COVID-19 contact tracing in Belgium from September 2020 to December 2021

Author(s): Cécile Kremer, Lander Willem, Jorden Boone, Wouter Arrazola de Oñate, Naïma Hammami, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Published in: MedRxiv, 2022
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.04.22280542

Global misinformation spillovers in the online vaccination debate before and during COVID-19

Author(s): Jacopo Lenti, Kyriaki Kalimeri, André Panisson, Daniela Paolotti, Michele Tizzani, Yelena Mejova, Michele Starnini
Published in: arXiv, 2022
Publisher: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2211.11495

Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in a primary school using epidemiological and genomic data

Author(s): Cécile Kremer, Andrea Torneri, Pieter J. K. Libin, Cécile Meex, Marie-Pierre Hayette, Sébastien Bontems, Keith Durkin, Maria Artesi, Vincent Bours, Philippe Lemey, Gilles Darcis, Niel Hens, Christelle Meuris
Published in: MedRxiv, 2022
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.17.22281175

Dose-response modelling of endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2: human challenge trials reveal the individual variation in susceptibility

Author(s): Fuminari Miura, Don Klinkenberg, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: MedRxiv, 2022
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2022.04.07.22273549

Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022

Author(s): Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, Carl A. B. Pearson, Mark Jit, W. John Edmunds
Published in: MedRxiv, 2021
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267858

Longitudinal social contact data analysis: insightsfrom 2 years of data collection in Belgium duringthe COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Neilshan Loedy, Pietro Coletti, Wambua, Lisa Hermans, Lander Willem, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kerry L.M. Wong, W. John Edmunds, Alexis Robert, Quentin J. Leclerc, Amy Gimma, Geert Molenberghs, Philippe Beutels, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Published in: Research Square, 2023
Publisher: Research Square

Who Acquires Infection from Whom? A Sensitivity Analysis of Transmission Dynamics During the Early Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Belgium

Author(s): Angeli, Leonardo and Caetano, Constantino Pereira and Franco, Nicolas and Abrams, Steven and Coletti, Pietro and Van Nieuwenhuyse, Inneke and Pop, Sorin and Hens, Niel
Published in: 2023
Publisher: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4445989

Real-time modeling and projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland.

Author(s): Althaus, C.
Published in: 2020
Publisher: ispmbern.github

Echoes through Time: Evolution of the Italian COVID-19 Vaccination Debate

Author(s): Giuseppe Crupi, Yelena Mejova, Michele Tizzani, Daniela Paolotti, Andre Panisson
Published in: arXiv, 2022
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2204.12943

The impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on COVID-19 disease outcomes

Author(s): Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Jantien Backer, Pieter de Boer, Albert Jan van Hoek, Don Klinkenberg, Hester Korthals Altes, Ka Yin Leung, Hester de Melker, Fuminari Miura, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: MedRXiV, 2021
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.21.21265318

Living Evidence on COVID-19

Author(s): COVID-19 Open Access Project, Counotte M, Imeri H, Heron L, Ipekci AM
Published in: 2021
Publisher: ispmbern.github

Age-specific severity of SARS-CoV-2 in February 2020 – June 2021 in the Netherlands

Author(s): Pieter T. de Boer, Jan van de Kassteele, Eric R.A. Vos, Liselotte van Asten, Dave A. Dongelmans, Arianne B. van Gageldonk-Lafeber, Gerco den Hartog, Agnetha Hofhuis, Fiona van der Klis, Dylan W. de Lange, Lenny Stoeldraijer, the RIVM COVID-19 epidemiology and surveillance team, Hester E. de Melker, Eveline Geubbels, Susan van den Hof, Jacco Wallinga
Published in: MedRxiv, 2023
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.02.09.23285703

Thesis paper on the escalation model of the Swiss Epidemics Act (EpidA)

Author(s): PD Dr. Christian L. Althaus, Dr. Caroline Schlaufer, Prof. Dr. Annika Frahsa, Dr. Susanne Hadorn, Prof. Dr. Fritz Sager, Prof. Dr. Marcel Zwahlen
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), UBern

Impact of tiered measures on social contact and mixing patterns in Italy during the second wave of COVID-19.

Author(s): Michele Tizzani, Alessandro De Gaetano, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry Wong, W John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Pietro Coletti, Daniela Paolotti
Published in: Research Square, 2022
Publisher: Research Square
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1892693/v1

Social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic: a snapshot of post-pandemic behaviour from the CoMix study

Author(s): Christopher I Jarvis, Pietro Coletti, Jantien A Backer, James D Munday, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Christian Althaus, Nicola Low, Martina Reichmuthantien, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens, W John Edmunds
Published in: 2023
Publisher: CIMMID Github

The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study

Author(s): James Wambua, Neilshan Loedy, Christopher I Jarvis, Kerry LM Wong, Christel Faes, Rok Grah, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Rene Niehus, Helen Johnson, W.John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Pietro Coletti
Published in: MedRxiv, 2022
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.11.25.22282676

Bayesian nowcasting with Laplacian-P-splines

Author(s): Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Published in: MedRxiv, 2022
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.26.22279249

EpiLPS: a fast and flexible Bayesian tool for near real-time estimation of the time-varying reproduction number

Author(s): Oswaldo Gressani, Jacco Wallinga, Christian Althaus, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Published in: MedRxiv, 2021
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.02.21267189

Rapid replacement of the Beta variant by the Delta variant in South Africa

Author(s): Houriiyah Tegally, Eduan Wilkinson, Christian L. Althaus, Marta Giovanetti, James Emmanuel San, Jennifer Giandhari, Sureshnee Pillay, Yeshnee Naidoo, Upasana Ramphal, Nokukhanya Msomi, Koleka Mlisana, Daniel G. Amoako, Josie Everatt, Thabo Mohale, Anele Nguni, Boitshoko Mahlangu, Noxolo Ntuli, Zamantungwa T. Khumalo, Zinhle Makatini, Nicole Wolter, Cathrine Scheepers, Arshad Ismail, Deelan Doolabh
Published in: MedRXiv, 2021
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.23.21264018

Importation of Alpha and Delta variants during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: phylogenetic analysis and intervention scenarios

Author(s): Martina L Reichmuth, Emma B Hodcroft, Christian L Althaus
Published in: MedRxiv, 2023
Publisher: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.13.23287198

Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning vaccine protection: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Author(s): Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, Mark Jit, W.John Edmunds
Published in: MedRxiv, 2021
Publisher: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.22.21266584

Population disruption: observational study of changes in the population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author(s): Hamish Gibbs, Naomi R. Waterlow, James Cheshire, Leon Danon, Yang Liu, Chris Grundy, Adam J. Kucharski, LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Rosalind M. Eggo
Published in: Welcome Open Research, 2022
Publisher: Welcome Open Research
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.18358.1

A linear Mixed Model to Estimate COVID-19-induced Excess Mortality

Author(s): Johan Verbeeck, Christel Faes, Thomas Neyens, Niel Hens, Geert Verbeke, Patrick Deboosere, Geert Molenberghs
Published in: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.10.21256942

The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19

Author(s): Timothy W Russell, Joseph T Wu, Sam Clifford, CMMID COVID-19 working group, W John Edmunds, Adam J. Kucharski, Mark Jit
Published in: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.12.20152298

On the timing of interventions to preserve hospital capacity: lessons to be learned from the Belgian SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Author(s): Niel Hens, Christel Faes, Marius Gilbert
Published in: Acrhives of Public health, 2021, ISSN 2049-3258
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.18.20248450

Belgian COVID-19 Mortality, Excess Deaths, Number of Deaths per Million, and Infection Fatality Rates (9 March — 28 June 2020)

Author(s): Geert Molenberghs, Christel Faes, Johan Verbeeck, Patrick Deboosere, Steven Abrams, Lander Willem, Jan Aerts, Heidi Theeten, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Natalia Bustos Sierra, Françoise Renard, Sereina Herzog, Patrick Lusyne, Johan Van der Heyden, Herman Van Oyen, Pierre Van Damme, Niel Hens
Published in: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.20.20136234

Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

Author(s): James D Munday, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry LM Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Sebastian Funk, W. John Edmunds
Published in: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.06.21252964

A tale of two variants: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha in Geneva, Switzerland, and Beta in South Africa

Author(s): Christian L. Althaus, Stephanie Baggio, Martina L. Reichmuth, Emma B. Hodcroft, Julien Riou, Richard A. Neher, Frédérique Jacquerioz, Hervé Spechbach, Julien Salamun, Pauline Vetter, Carolyn Williamson, Nei-yuan Hsiao, Wolfgang Preiser, Mary-Ann Davies, Richard J. Lessells, Tulio de Olivera, Laurent Kaiser, Isabella Eckerle
Published in: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.10.21258468

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