Epidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe

Resultado final

Metadata describing the research data to facilitate re-use by other consortia and groups (attached to D1.3 in terms of the timeline with the same target users) after review by the steering committee Time of delivery - Update within 30 days of new data collection

Algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Software deliverable: Algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of 2019-nCoV epidemic (M3, target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

2019-nCoV data repository

Data repository containing all research data generated during the project (starting M1 with regular updates, target users: other EpiPose WP researchers, scientific community, PH authorities) for internal use as well as for sharing after review by the steering committee (see WP6). Updates within 30 days of new data collection

Real-time epidemic risk assessment tool

Real-time epidemic risk assessment tool (M1, target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

Updated Data lake with survey, platform and social media data provided

Report on impact of information exposure on collective attention

Report on impact of information exposure on collective attention (month 12)

Report summarising spread of co-circulating pathogens comparing meta-population models and IBM as part of O3.3

Report summarising spread of cocirculating pathogens comparing metapopulation models and IBM as part of O33

Inventory of results

Inventory of results (M 1-36 bi-monthly)

Report summarising dissemination activities year 2
Report on effect of 2019-nCoV on social contact patterns in 20 European populations

Report on effect of 2019nCoV on social contact patterns in European populations including results on the prolonged data collection in Belgium

Updated report on impact of information exposure on collective attention
report summarising dissemination activities year 3
Report summarising full set of interventions and comparison with modelling results based on Branching processes (O3.2)

Report summarising full set of interventions and comparison with modelling results based on Branching processes O32

Report summarising impact of interventions on co-circulation using the IBM, i.e. the results of O3.3.

Report summarising impact of interventions on cocirculation using the IBM ie the results of O33

Improved methods and estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Improved methods and estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemic. We will provide robust methods that are insensitive to/or can identify occasional outliers, suffer little bias and are most informative for public health decision making. Target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

Report summarising spread of 2019-nCoV in Europe from models in O3.1

Report summarising spread of 2019-nCoV in Europe from models in O3.1.

Dissemination plan

Dissemination plan to implement Task 6.1 (dissemination of methods and results) 6.2 (outreach to national and international stakeholders) and 6.3 (Communication via social media, newspapers etc)

Report summarizing real time updates under task 5.1 and 5.2

report summarizing real time updates under task 5.1 (disease burden and associated resource use) and 5.2 (macro-economic impact)

Report summarising dissemination activities year 1
Report summarizing task 5.1 and 5.2 activities

report summarizing task 5.1(disease burden and associated resource use) and 5.2 (macro-economic impact)

Final report summarizing accomplished task5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 activities

Final report summarizing accomplished task 51 disease burden resource use 52 macroeconomid impact and 53 costeffectiveness analysis activities

Report on the drivers of adherence with social distancing within and between different countries and on insights into differences in populations' risk perception based on quantitative analysis in extended Task 4.1.

Report on the drivers of adherence with social distancing within and between different countries and on insights into differences in populations risk perception based on quantitative analysis in extended Task 41

A detailed quantitative comparison of the efficacy of different combinations of social distance measures across most European countries as measured through real-time tracking of the reproduction number

Report on a detailed quantitative comparison of the efficacy of different combinations of social distance measures across most European countries as measured through realtime tracking of the reproduction number

Updated report on impact of information exposure on collective attention
Report summarising impact of initial set of interventions
Complete epidemiological assessment of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Epidemiological assessment during epidemic and in the aftermath of the epidemic Target users public health agencies scientific community

Interim activity report
Advice to public health

Advice to PH authorities in and outside the consortium on what data to collect (e.g. advisory documents, contribution to working groups) (M1 with regular updates, target users: other EpiPose WP researchers, scientific community, PH authorities)

modules on social contact patterns and risk behaviours to be integrated within participating Influenzanet partners

development of modules on social contact patterns and risk behaviours to be integrated within participating Influenzanet partners

Project website

Public website available to release updates of project outputs to lay public and press, when and where deemed appropriate by the SC.

Publicaciones

Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection

Autores: Thibaut Jombart, Stéphane Ghozzi, Dirk Schumacher, Timothy J. Taylor, Quentin J. Leclerc, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche, Felix Greaves, Tom Ward, Rosalind M. Eggo, Emily Nightingale, Sophie Meakin, Oliver J. Brady, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Graham F. Medley, Michael Höhle, and W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: The royal society B, 2021, ISSN 0962-8436
Editor: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0266

Dynamics of non-household contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 in the Netherlands

Autores: Jantien A. Backer, Laurens Bogaardt, Philippe Beutels, Pietro Coletti, W. John Edmunds, Amy Gimma, Cheyenne C. E. van Hagen, Niel Hens, Christopher I. Jarvis, Eric R. A. Vos, James Wambua, Denise Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort & Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32031-7

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis

Autores: Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Dianne Egli-Gany, Michel J. Counotte, Stefanie Hossmann, Hira Imeri, Aziz Mert Ipekci, Georgia Salanti, Nicola Low
Publicado en: PLOS Medicine, Edición 17/9, 2020, Página(s) e1003346, ISSN 1549-1676
Editor: PLOS Medicine
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346

The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment

Autores: Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kevin van Zandvoort, Kerry L. M. Wong, W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, Edición 19/1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01924-7

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe

Autores: Anthony Hauser, Michel J. Counotte, Charles C. Margossian, Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Nicola Low, Christian L. Althaus, Julien Riou
Publicado en: PLOS Medicine, Edición 17/7, 2020, Página(s) e1003189, ISSN 1549-1676
Editor: PLOS
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189

How can early stage economic evaluation help guide research for future vaccines?

Autores: Newall AT, Beutels P, Tuffaha HW, Hall PS, Jit M
Publicado en: Vaccine, 2022, ISSN 0264-410X
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.017

Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review

Autores: Nuru Saadi; Y-Ling Chi; Srobana Ghosh; Rosalind M Eggo; Ciara V McCarthy; Matthew Quaife; Jeanette Dawa; Jeanette Dawa; Mark Jit; Anna Vassall
Publicado en: BMC Med, Edición 1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.21.21259104

Long-term health-related quality of life in non-hospitalised COVID-19 cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: Longitudinal analysis and cross-sectional comparison with controls

Autores: Sandmann FG, Tessier E, Lacy J, Kall M, Van Leeuwen E, Charlett A, Eggo RM, Dabrera G, Edmunds WJ, Ramsay M, Campbell H, Amirthalingam G, Jit M.
Publicado en: Clin Infect Dis, 2022, ISSN 1537-6591
Editor: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac151

Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data

Autores: Nicolas Franco; Pietro Coletti; Lander Willem; Leonardo Angeli; Adrien Lajot; Abrams Steven; Philippe Beutels; Christel Faes; Niel Hens
Publicado en: Plos Computational Biology, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 1553-7358
Editor: Plos
DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.10.21264753

Impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 on contacts and mixing patterns: repeated cross-sectional surveys, the Netherlands, 2016–17, April 2020 and June 2020

Autores: Jantien A Backer, Liesbeth Mollema, Eric RA Vos, Don Klinkenberg, Fiona RM van der Klis, Hester E de Melker, Susan van den Hof, Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, Edición 26/8, 2021, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.8.2000994

Continuous population-level monitoring of SARSCoV-2 seroprevalence in a large Europeanmetropolitan region

Autores: Marc Emmenegger, Elena De Cecco, David Lamparter, Raphaël P. B. Jacquat, Julien Riou, Dominik Menges, Tala Ballouz, Daniel Ebner, Mathias M. Schneider, Itzel Condado Morales, Berre Doğançay, Jingjing Guo, Anne Wiedmer, Julie Domange, Marigona Imeri, Rita Moos, Chryssa Zografou, Leyla Batkitar, Lidia Madrigal, Dezirae Schneider, Chiara Trevisan, Andres Gonzalez-Guerra, Alessandra Carrella, Ir
Publicado en: iScience, 2023, ISSN 2589-0042
Editor: Cell Press Elsevier Inc.
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105928

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Autores: Andrew Clark, Mark Jit, Charlotte Warren-Gash, Bruce Guthrie, Harry H X Wang, Stewart W Mercer, Colin Sanderson, Martin McKee, Christopher Troeger, Kanyin L Ong, Francesco Checchi, Pablo Perel, Sarah Joseph, Hamish P Gibbs, Amitava Banerjee, Rosalind M Eggo, Emily S Nightingale, Kathleen O'Reilly, Thibaut Jombart, W John Edmunds, Alicia Rosello, Fiona Yueqian Sun, Katherine E Atkins, Nikos I Bosse
Publicado en: The Lancet Global Health, Edición 8/8, 2020, Página(s) e1003-e1017, ISSN 2214-109X
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30264-3

Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland

Autores: Nikos I. Bosse ,Sam Abbott,Johannes Bracher,Habakuk Hain,Billy J. Quilty,Mark Jit,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group,Edwin van Leeuwen,Anne Cori,Sebastian Funk
Publicado en: PLOS Computational Biology, 2022, ISSN 1553-734X
Editor: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010405

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

Autores: Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann,a Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer,a Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill,Claudia Hanson, Pirta Hotulainen, Peter Klimek, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Tyll Krüger, Jenny Krutzinna, Nicola Low, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins, Martin McKee, Sebastian Bernd Mohr, Armin Nassehi, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185

Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

Autores: Christopher I. Jarvis, Kevin Van Zandvoort, Amy Gimma, Kiesha Prem, Petra Klepac, G. James Rubin, W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, Edición 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8

Time between Symptom Onset, Hospitalisation and Recovery or Death: Statistical Analysis of Belgian COVID-19 Patients

Autores: Christel Faes, Steven Abrams, Dominique Van Beckhoven, Geert Meyfroidt, Erika Vlieghe, Niel Hens
Publicado en: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Edición 17/20, 2020, Página(s) 7560, ISSN 1660-4601
Editor: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17207560

Evaluation of home detection algorithms on mobile phone data using individual-level ground truth

Autores: Luca Pappalardo, Leo Ferres, Manuel Sacasa, Ciro Cattuto, Loreto Bravo
Publicado en: EPJ Data Science, Edición 10/1, 2021, ISSN 2193-1127
Editor: EPJ Data Science
DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00284-9

Multi-country collaboration in responding to global infectious disease threats: lessons for Europe from the COVID-19 pandemic

Autores: Jit M, Ananthakrishnan A, McKee M, Wouters OJ, Beutels P, Teerawattananon Y.
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2021, ISSN 2666-7762
Editor: Elsivier
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100221

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

Autores: Tapiwa Ganyani, Cécile Kremer, Dongxuan Chen, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, Edición 25/17, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.17.2000257

Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

Autores: James D. Munday, Katharine Sherratt, Sophie Meakin, Akira Endo, Carl A. B. Pearson, Joel Hellewell, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Katherine E. Atkins, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Albert Jan van Hoek & Sebastian Funk
Publicado en: Nature Communications, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22213-0

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study

Autores: Michael J. Tildesley; Anna Vassall; Steven Riley; Mark Jit; Frank Sandmann; Edward M. Hill; Robin N. Thompson; Benjamin D. Atkins; John Edmunds; Louise Dyson; Matt J. Keeling
Publicado en: Royal Society Open Science, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 2054-5703
Editor: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211746

Computational strategies to combat COVID-19: useful tools to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus research.

Autores: Franziska Hufsky; Kevin Lamkiewicz; Alexandre Almeida; Abdel Aouacheria; Cecilia N. Arighi; Alex Bateman; Jan Baumbach; Niko Beerenwinkel; Christian Brandt; Marco Cacciabue; Sara Chuguransky; Oliver Drechsel; Robert D. Finn; Adrian Fritz; Stephan Fuchs; Georges Hattab; Anne-Christin Hauschild; Dominik Heider; Marie Hoffmann; Martin Hölzer; Stefan Hoops; Lars Kaderali; Ioanna Kalvari; Max von Klei
Publicado en: Brief Bioinform, Edición 39, 2021, ISSN 1477-4054
Editor: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/bib/bbaa232

Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile

Autores: Nicolò Gozzi, Michele Tizzoni, Matteo Chinazzi, Leo Ferres, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22601-6

Survival among people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Switzerland: a nationwide population-based analysis

Autores: Nanina Anderegg, Radoslaw Panczak, Matthias Egger, Nicola Low, and Julien Riou
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, 2022, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02364-7

Poor self-reported adherence to COVID-19-related quarantine/isolation requests, Norway, April to July 2020

Autores: Steens Anneke, Freiesleben de Blasio Birgitte, Veneti Lamprini, Gimma Amy, Edmunds W John, Van Zandvoort Kevin, Jarvis Christopher I, Forland Frode, Robberstad Bjarne.
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: ECDC
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.37.2001607

A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

Autores: Pietro Coletti, Pieter Libin, Oana Petrof, Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Sereina A. Herzog, Christel Faes, Elise Kuylen, James Wambua, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Publicado en: BMC Infectious Diseases, Edición 21/1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2334
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06092-w

A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Zurich, Switzerland

Autores: Dominik Menges, Hélène E. Aschmann, André Moser, Christian L. Althaus, Viktor von Wyl
Publicado en: Jama Network Open, 2021, ISSN 0098-7484
Editor: American Medical Association
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.8184

Assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of household-pooled universal testing to control COVID-19 epidemics

Autores: Pieter J. K. Libin, Lander Willem, Timothy Verstraeten, Andrea Torneri, Joris Vanderlocht, Niel Hens
Publicado en: PLOS Computational Biology, Edición 17/3, 2021, Página(s) e1008688, ISSN 1553-7358
Editor: PLOS Computational Biology
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008688

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

Autores: Ciara V. McCarthy, Oscar O’Mara, Edwin van Leeuwen, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Mark Jit & Frank Sandmann
Publicado en: BMC Public Health, 2022, ISSN 1471-2458
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

Risk factors associated with the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness: data from a web-based syndromic surveillance system in the Netherlands

Autores: Scott A. McDonald, Cees C. van den Wijngaard, Cornelia C. H. Wielders, Ingrid H. M. Friesema, Loes Soetens, Daniela Paolotti, Susan van den Hof, Albert Jan van Hoek
Publicado en: Epidemiology and Infection, 2021, ISSN 0950-2688
Editor: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821001187

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

Autores: Ciara McCarthy; Nikos I. Bosse; Christopher Jarvis; Nicholas Davies; Sam Abbott; Stefan Flasche; Mark Jit; Billy Quilty; Yang Liu; Simon Procter
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

Assessing real-world vaccine effectiveness against severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection: an observational study from routine surveillance data in Switzerland

Autores: Nanina Anderegg, Christian L. Althaus, Samuel Colin, Anthony Hausera, Anne Laube, Mirjam Mäusezahl, Moritz Wagner, Biagio Zaffora, Julien Rioua
Publicado en: Swiss Medical Weekly, 2022, ISSN 1424-7860
Editor: EMH Swiss Medical Publishers Ltd
DOI: 10.4414/smw.2022.w30163

A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Autores: Andrea Torneri, Pieter Libin, Joris Vanderlocht, Anne-Mieke Vandamme, Johan Neyts, Niel Hens
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, Edición 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01636-4

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands.

Autores: Scott A. McDonald; Fuminari Miura; Eric R.A. Vos; Michiel van Boven; Hester E. de Melker; Fiona R. M. van der Klis; Rob van Binnendijk; Gerco den Hartog; Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: European Journal of Epidemiology, Edición 1, 2021, ISSN 0393-2990
Editor: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

Pregnancy during COVID-19: social contact patterns and vaccine coverage of pregnant women from CoMix in 19 European countries

Autores: Kerry L. M. Wong, Amy Gimma, Enny S. Paixao, CoMix Europe Working Group, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Christopher I. Jarvis & W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: BMC Pregnancy and child birth, 2022, ISSN 1471-2393
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12884-022-05076-1

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

Autores: Marcus R. Keogh-Brown, Henning Tarp Jensen, W. John Edmunds, Richard D. Smith
Publicado en: SSM - Population Health, Edición 12, 2020, Página(s) 100651, ISSN 2352-8273
Editor: ScienceDirect
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100651

Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions

Autores: Mihaly Koltai, Fabienne Krauer, David Hodgson, Edwin van Leeuwen, Marina Treskova-Schwarzbach, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche
Publicado en: Epidemics, 2022, ISSN 1755-4365
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100614

Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Autores: Kathleen McColl, Marion Debin, Cecile Souty, Caroline Guerrisi, Clement Turbelin, Alessandra Falchi, Isabelle Bonmarin, Daniela Paolotti, Chinelo Obi, Jim Duggan, Yamir Moreno, Ania Wisniak, Antoine Flahault, Thierry Blanchon, Vittoria Colizza, Jocelyn Raude
Publicado en: Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022, ISSN 1660-4601
Editor: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19010436

Ceci n'est pas un lit. Base capacity healthcare matters in a pandemic

Autores: Philippe Beutels, Frederik Verelst
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Edición 2, 2021, Página(s) 100033, ISSN 2666-7762
Editor: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100033

The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study

Autores: Billy J. Quilty, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu, Hamish Gibbs, Timothy W. Russell, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kiesha Prem, Carl A. B. Pearson, Samuel Clifford, Stefan Flasche, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Petra Klepac, Rosalind M. Eggo & Mark Jit
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9

Can COVID-19 symptoms as reported in a large-scale online survey be used to optimise spatial predictions of COVID-19 incidence risk in Belgium?

Autores: Thomas Neyens, Christel Faes, Maren Vranckx, Koen Pepermans, Niel Hens, Pierre Van Damme, Geert Molenberghs, Jan Aerts, Philippe Beutels
Publicado en: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Edición 35, 2020, Página(s) 100379, ISSN 1877-5845
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2020.100379

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries

Autores: Rajiv Chowdhury, Kevin Heng, Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon, Gabriel Goh, Daisy Okonofua, Carolina Ochoa-Rosales, Valentina Gonzalez-Jaramillo, Abbas Bhuiya, Daniel Reidpath, Shamini Prathapan, Sara Shahzad, Christian L. Althaus, Nathalia Gonzalez-Jaramillo, Oscar H. Franco
Publicado en: European Journal of Epidemiology, Edición 35/5, 2020, Página(s) 389-399, ISSN 0393-2990
Editor: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-020-00649-w

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Autores: Billy J Quilty MSc, Samuel Clifford PhD, Joel Hellewell PhD, Timothy W Russell PhD, Adam J Kucharski PhD, Prof Stefan Flasche, Prof W John Edmunds
Publicado en: The Lancet Public Health, 2021, ISSN 2468-2667
Editor: Elsevier ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30308-x

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Autores: Yang Liu, Christian Morgenstern, James Kelly, Rachel Lowe, Mark Jit
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, Edición 19/1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01872-8

Socioeconomic position and the COVID-19 care cascade from testing to mortality in Switzerland: a population-based analysis

Autores: Julien Riou, Radoslaw Panczak, Christian L Althaus, Christoph Junker, Damir Perisa, Katrin Schneider, Nicola G Criscuolo, Nicola Low, Matthias Egger
Publicado en: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00160-2

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Autores: Mark Jit, Thibaut Jombart, Emily S Nightingale, Akira Endo, Sam Abbott, W John Edmunds
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, Edición 25/18, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.18.2000632

Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: An update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era

Autores: Kiesha Prem,Kevin van Zandvoort,Petra Klepac,Rosalind M. Eggo,Nicholas G. Davies,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group ,Alex R. Cook,Mark Jit
Publicado en: Plos Computational Biology, 2021, ISSN 1553-7358
Editor: Plos
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009098

The influence of risk perceptions on close contact frequency during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Autores: James Wambua, Lisa Hermans, Pietro Coletti, Frederik Verelst, Lander Willem, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry L. M. Wong, Adrien Lajot, Stefaan Demarest, W. John Edmunds, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Scientific reports, 2022, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09037-8

Shorter serial intervals in SARS-CoV-2 cases with Omicron BA.1 variant compared with Delta variant, the Netherlands, 13 to 26 December 2021

Autores: Jantien A Backer, Dirk Eggink, Stijn P Andeweg, Irene K Veldhuijzen, Noortje van Maarseveen, Klaas Vermaas, Boris Vlaemynck, Raf Schepers, Susan van den Hof, Chantal BEM Reusken, Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, 2022, ISSN 1025-496X
Editor: Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA

The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation

Autores: Frank G Sandmann, Nicholas G Davies, Anna Vassall, W John Edmunds, Mark Jit, Fiona Yueqian Sun, C Julian Villabona-Arenas, Emily S Nightingale, Alicia Showering, Gwenan M Knight, Katharine Sherratt, Yang Liu, Kaja Abbas, Sebastian Funk, Akira Endo, Joel Hellewell, Alicia Rosello, Rachel Lowe, Matthew Quaife, Amy Gimma, Oliver Brady, Jack Williams, Simon R Procter, Rosalind M Eggo, Yung-Wai Desmond
Publicado en: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Edición 21/7, 2021, Página(s) 962-974, ISSN 1473-3099
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00079-7

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown

Autores: Pietro Coletti, James Wambua, Amy Gimma, Lander Willem, Sarah Vercruysse, Bieke Vanhoutte, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kevin Van Zandvoort, John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, Edición 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-78540-7

Individual factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in between and during pandemic waves (July–December 2020)

Autores: Sara Valckx, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Frederik Verelst, Maren Vranckx, Greet Hendrickx, NielHens, Pierre Van Damme, Koen Pepermans , Philippe Beutels, Thomas Neyens
Publicado en: Vaccine, 2022, ISSN 0264-410X
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.10.073

Quantification of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in Switzerland

Autores: Chaoran Chen, Sarah Ann Nadeau, Ivan Topolsky, Marc Manceau, Jana S. Huismana, Kim Philipp Jablonski, Lara Fuhrmanna, David Dreifuss, Katharina Jahna, Christiane Beckmann, Maurice Redondo, Christoph Noppen, Lorenz Rische, Martin Risch, Nadia Wohlwend, Sinem Kas, Thomas Bodmer, Tim Roloff, Tanja Stadler
Publicado en: Epidemics, 2021, ISSN 1755-4365
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100480

Serial Intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants, Belgium, November 19–December 31

Autores: Cécile Kremer, Toon Braeye, Kristiaan Proesmans, Emmanuel André, Andrea Torneri, and Niel Hens
Publicado en: Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2022, ISSN 1080-6059
Editor: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
DOI: 10.3201/eid2808.220220

Optimizing Benefits of Testing Key Workers for Infection with SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Autores: Frank G Sandmann, Peter J White, Mary Ramsay, Mark Jit
Publicado en: Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2020, ISSN 1058-4838
Editor: University of Chicago Press
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa901

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study

Autores: Rosello, Alicia; Barnard, Rosanna,; Smith, David,; Evans, Stephanie; Grimm, Fiona; Davies, Nicholas,; Deeny, Sarah,; Knight, Gwenan,; Edmunds, W. John
Publicado en: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2022, ISSN 1471-2334
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07268-8

Determinants of basic childhood vaccination coverage in European and OECD countries

Autores: Vladimira Varbanova, Frederik Verelst, Niel Hens & Philippe Beutels
Publicado en: Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 2022, ISSN 2164-5515
Editor: Landes Bioscience
DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2022.2123883

Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies

Autores: Andrea Torneri, Lander Willem, Vittoria Colizza, Cécile Kremer, Christelle Meuris, Gilles Darcis, Niel Hens, Pieter Libin
Publicado en: eLife, 2022, ISSN 2050-084X
Editor: eLife Sciences Publications
DOI: 10.7554/elife.75593

COVID-19 outbreak response, a dataset to assess mobility changes in Italy following national lockdown

Autores: Emanuele Pepe, Paolo Bajardi, Laetitia Gauvin, Filippo Privitera, Brennan Lake, Ciro Cattuto, Michele Tizzoni
Publicado en: Scientific Data, Edición 7/1, 2020, ISSN 2052-4463
Editor: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00575-2

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Autores: Nicholas G. Davies, Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard, Christopher I. Jarvis, Adam J. Kucharski, James D. Munday, Carl A. B. Pearson, Timothy W. Russell, Damien C. Tully, Alex D. Washburne, Tom Wenseleers, Amy Gimma, William Waites, Kerry L. M. Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, Justin D. Silverman, Karla Diaz-Ordaz, Ruth Keogh, Rosalind M. Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Mark Jit, Katherine E. Atkins, W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: Science, Edición 372/6538, 2021, Página(s) eabg3055, ISSN 0036-8075
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055

Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020

Autores: Woskie LR, Hennessy J, Espinosa V, Tsai TC, Vispute S, Jacobson BH, Cattuto C, Gauvin L, Tizzoni M, Fabrikant A, Gadepalli K, Boulanger A, Pearce A, Kamath C, Schlosberg A, Stanton C, Bavadekar S, Abueg M, Hogue M, Oplinger A, Chou K, Corrado G, Shekel T, Jha AK, Wellenius GA, Gabrilovich E.
Publicado en: Plos One, 2021, ISSN 1932-6203
Editor: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253071

Placing a value on increased flexible vaccine manufacturing capacity for future pandemics

Autores: Anthony T. Newall, Philippe Beutels, Zoltán Kis, Adrian Towse, and Mark Jitf,
Publicado en: Vaccine, 2023, ISSN 0264-410X
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.02.065

Impact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021

Autores: Martina L. Reichmuth, Emma B. Hodcroft, Julien Riou, Richard A. Neher, Niel Hens, Christian L. Althaus
Publicado en: Epidemics, 2022, ISSN 1755-4365
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100654

Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

Autores: Emma B. Hodcroft, Moira Zuber, Sarah Nadeau, Timothy G. Vaughan, Katharine H. D. Crawford, Christian L. Althaus, Martina L. Reichmuth, John E. Bowen, Alexandra C. Walls, Davide Corti, Jesse D. Bloom, David Veesler, David Mateo, Alberto Hernando, Iñaki Comas, Fernando González-Candelas, SeqCOVID-SPAIN consortium, Tanja Stadler & Richard A. Neher
Publicado en: Nature, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03677-y

Optimising health and economic impacts of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation strategies in the WHO European Region: a mathematical modelling study

Autores: Yang Liu, Frank G. Sandmann, Rosanna C. Barnard, Carl A.B. Pearson, Roberta Pastore, Richard Pebody, Stefan Flasche, MarkJit
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2022, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267

Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

Autores: G. Cencetti, G. Santin, A. Longa, E. Pigani, A. Barrat, C. Cattuto, S. Lehmann, M. Salathé, B. Lepri
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21809-w

Collective Response to Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Reddit and Wikipedia: Mixed-Methods Analysis

Autores: Nicolò Gozzi, Michele Tizzani, Michele Starnini, Fabio Ciulla, Daniela Paolotti, André Panisson, Nicola Perra
Publicado en: Journal of Medical Internet Research, Edición 22/10, 2020, Página(s) e21597, ISSN 1438-8871
Editor: Journal of medical Internet Research
DOI: 10.2196/21597

Impact of long-COVID on health-related quality of life in Japanese COVID-19 patients

Autores: Shinya Tsuzuki, Yusuke Miyazato, Mari Terada, Shinichiro Morioka, Norio Ohmagari & Philippe Beutels
Publicado en: Health and Quality of Life Outcomes, 2022, ISSN 1477-7525
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12955-022-02033-6

Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study

Autores: Amy Gimma ,James D. Munday,Kerry L. M. Wong,Pietro Coletti,Kevin van Zandvoort,Kiesha Prem,CMMID COVID-19 working group ,Petra Klepac,G. James Rubin,Sebastian Funk,W. John Edmunds,Christopher I. Jarvis
Publicado en: Plos Medicine, 2022, ISSN 1549-1277
Editor: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003907

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study

Autores: Angel Paternina-Caicedo; Mark Jit; Nelson Alvis-Guzmán; Juan Carlos Fernández; José Hernández; Justo Jesus Paz-Wilches; José Rojas-Suarez; Carmelo Dueñas-Castell; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Adrian D. Smith; Fernando De La Hoz-Restrepo
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 2667-193X
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100296

Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: a data-driven prioritization

Autores: Fuminari Miura; Ka Yin Leung; Don Klinkenberg; Kylie E. C. Ainslie; Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: PLoS Computational Biology, Edición 1, 2021, ISSN 1553-7358
Editor: PLOS
DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.20.21260889

Laplacian-P-splines for Bayesian inference in the mixture cure model

Autores: Oswaldo Gressani, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Statistics in Medicine, 2022, ISSN 0277-6715
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/sim.9373

Global and national estimates of the number of healthcare workers at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Autores: C.V. McCarthy, F.G. Sandmann, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, M. Jit
Publicado en: The journal of Hospital Infection, 2021, ISSN 0195-6701
Editor: W. B. Saunders Co., Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2021.02.012

Attitudes towards booster, testing and isolation, and their impact on COVID-19 response in winter 2022/2023 in France, Belgium, and Italy: a cross-sectional survey and modelling study

Autores: Giulia de Meijere Eugenio Valdano Claudio Castellano Marion Debin Charly Kengne-Kuetche Clément Turbelin Harold Noël Joshua S. Weitz Daniela Paolotti Lisa Hermans Niel Hens Vittoria Colizza
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health Europe, 2023, ISSN 2666-7762
Editor: Elsevier Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100614

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa

Autores: Raquel Viana, Sikhulile Moyo, Daniel G. Amoako, Houriiyah Tegally, Cathrine Scheepers, Christian L. Althaus, Ugochukwu J. Anyaneji, Phillip A. Bester, Maciej F. Boni, Mohammed Chand, Wonderful T. Choga, Rachel Colquhoun, Michaela Davids, Koen Deforche, Deelan Doolabh, Louis du Plessis, Susan Engelbrecht, Josie Everatt, Jennifer Giandhari, Marta Giovanetti, Diana Hardie, Verity Hill, Nei-Yuan Hsiao
Publicado en: Nature, 2022, ISSN 0028-0836
Editor: Nature Publishing Group

Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, March 2020

Autores: Frederik Verelst, Elise Kuylen, Philippe Beutels
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, Edición 25/13, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.13.2000323

Early evidence of effectiveness of digital contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland

Autores: Marcel Salath, Christian Althaus, Nanina Anderegg, Daniele Antonioli, Tala Ballouz, Edouard Bugnon, Srdjan apkun, Dennis Jackson, Sang-Il Kim, Jim Larus, Nicola Low, Wouter Lueks, Dominik Menges, Cdric Moullet, Mathias Payer, Julien Riou, Theresa Stadler, Carmela Troncoso, Effy Vayena, Viktor von Wyl
Publicado en: Swiss Medical Weekly, 2020, ISSN 1424-3997
Editor: Swiss Medical Weekly
DOI: 10.4414/smw.2020.20457

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS coronavirus 2 in Belgium – a serial prospective cross-sectional nationwide study of residual samples

Autores: Sereina Herzog, Jessie De Bie, Steven Abrams, Ine Wouters, Esra Ekinci, Lisbeth Patteet, Astrid Coppens, Sandy De Spiegeleer, Philippe Beutels, Pierre Van Damme, Niel Hens, Heidi Theeten
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, 2022, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125179

Modelling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories

Autores: Steven Abrams, James Wambua, Eva Santermans, Lander Willem, Elise Kuylen, Pietro Coletti, Pieter Libin, Christel Faes, Oana Petrof, Sereina A. Herzog, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Epidemics, Edición 35, 2021, Página(s) 100449, ISSN 1755-4365
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100449

Dosing interval strategies for two-dose COVID-19 vaccination in 13 middle-income countries of Europe: Health impact modelling and benefit-risk analysis

Autores: Yang Liu, Carl A.B. Pearson, Frank G. Sandmann, Rosanna C. Barnard, Jong-Hoon Kim, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Kaja Abbas
Publicado en: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2022, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100381

The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Autores: Jon C Emery, Timothy W Russell, Yang Liu, Joel Hellewell, Carl AB Pearson, Katherine E Atkins, Petra Klepac, Akira Endo, Christopher I Jarvis, Nicholas G Davies, Eleanor M Rees, Sophie R Meakin, Alicia Rosello, Kevin van Zandvoort, James D Munday, W John Edmunds, Thibaut Jombart, Megan Auzenbergs, Emily S Nightingale, Mark Jit, Sam Abbott, David Simons, Nikos I Bosse, Quentin J Leclerc, Simon R Pr
Publicado en: eLife, Edición 9, 2020, ISSN 2050-084X
Editor: eLife Sciences Publications
DOI: 10.7554/elife.58699

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Autores: Nicholas G Davies, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Amy Gimma, W John Edmunds, Thibaut Jombart, Kathleen O'Reilly, Akira Endo, Joel Hellewell, Emily S Nightingale, Billy J Quilty, Christopher I Jarvis, Timothy W Russell, Petra Klepac, Nikos I Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Sam Abbott, Graham F Medley, Hamish Gibbs, Carl A B Pearson, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Samuel Clifford, Kiesha Prem, Charlie Diamond
Publicado en: The Lancet Public Health, Edición 5/7, 2020, Página(s) e375-e385, ISSN 2468-2667
Editor: The Lance Public Health
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30133-x

Authors’ response: Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data

Autores: Cécile Kremer, Tapiwa Ganyani, Dongxuan Chen, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Eurosurveillance, Edición 25/29, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Editor: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.29.2001269

Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

Autores: Hamish Gibbs, Yang Liu, Carl A. B. Pearson, Christopher I. Jarvis, Chris Grundy, Billy J. Quilty, Charlie Diamond, Rosalind M. Eggo
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 11/1, 2020, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18783-0

Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions

Autores: Cécile Kremer, Andrea Torneri, Sien Boesmans, Hanne Meuwissen, Selina Verdonschot, Koen Vanden Driessche, Christian L. Althaus, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.27.20239657

Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Autores: Timothy W Russell, Joseph T Wu, Sam Clifford, W John Edmunds, Adam J Kucharski, Mark Jit
Publicado en: The Lancet Public Health, Edición 6/1, 2021, Página(s) e12-e20, ISSN 2468-2667
Editor: The Lancet Public Health
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30263-2

Socioeconomic determinants of mobility responses during the first wave of COVID-19 in Italy: from provinces to neighbourhoods

Autores: Laetitia Gauvin; Paolo Bajardi; Emanuele Pepe; Brennan Lake; Filippo Privitera; Michele Tizzoni
Publicado en: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Edición 1, 2021, ISSN 1742-5662
Editor: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.16.20232413

SOCRATES: An online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19

Autores: Pietro Coletti; Philippe Beutels; Philippe Beutels; Lander Willem; Niel Hens; Niel Hens; Sebastian Funk; Thang Van Hoang
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, Edición 1, 2020, ISSN 1756-0500
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.03.20030627

The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education

Autores: Yessika Adelwin Natalia; Christel Faes; Thomas Neyens; Geert Molenberghs
Publicado en: Plos One, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 1932-6203
Editor: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264516

The burden of isolation to the individual: a comparison between isolation for COVID-19 and for other influenza-like illnesses in Japan

Autores: Shinya Tsuzuki,Norio Ohmagari and Philippe Beutels
Publicado en: Epidemiology & Infection, 2021, ISSN 1469-4409
Editor: Cambridge Core
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821002569

Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries – evidence from a two-year study

Autores: Kerry L. M. Wong, Amy Gimma, Pietro Coletti, CoMix Europe Working Group, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Veronika K. Jaeger, Andre Karch, Helen Johnson, WJohn Edmunds & Christopher I. Jarvis
Publicado en: BMC Infectious Diseases, 2023, ISSN 1471-2334
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08214-y

An approximate Bayesian approach for estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number under misreported epidemic data

Autores: Oswaldo Gressani, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Biometrical Journal, 2023, ISSN 0323-3847
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202200024

Exploring surveillance data biases when estimating the reproduction number: with insights into subpopulation transmission of COVID-19 in England

Autores: Katharine Sherratt; Sam Abbott; Sophie Meakin; Joel Hellewell; James D Munday; Nikos I Bosse; Mark Jit; Sebastian Funk
Publicado en: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci., Edición 1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2970
Editor: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0283

Evidence for Influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study

Autores: Naomi R. Waterlow; Michiko Toizumi; Edwin J. C. Van Leeuwen; Hien-Anh Thi Nguyen; Lay Myint-Yoshida; Rosalind M Eggo; Stefan Flasche
Publicado en: Plos Computational Biology, Edición 2, 2022, ISSN 1553-734X
Editor: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010234

A spatial model to jointly analyze self-reported survey data of COVID-19 symptoms and official COVID-19 incidence data

Autores: Maren Vranckx, Christel Faes, Geert Molenberghs, Niel Hens, Philippe Beutels, Pierre Van Damme, Jan Aerts, Oana Petrof, Koen Pepermans, Thomas Neyens
Publicado en: Biometrical Journal, 2022, ISSN 0323-3847
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202100186

Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland

Autores: Julien Riou, Anthony Hauser, Anna Fesser, Christian L. Althaus, Matthias Egger & Garyfallos Konstantinoudis
Publicado en: Nature Communications, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35770-9

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years

Autores: Scott A. McDonald, Giske R. Lagerweij, Pieter de Boer, Hester E. de Melker, Roan Pijnacker, Lapo Mughini Gras, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, Gerco den Hartog, Arianne B. van Gageldonk-Lafeber, RIVM COVID-19 surveillance, epidemiology team, Susan van den f & Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: European Journal of Epidemiology, 2022, ISSN 0393-2990
Editor: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-022-00895-0

Association of tiered restrictions and a second lockdown with COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions in England: a modelling study

Autores: Nicholas G Davies, Rosanna C Barnard, Christopher I Jarvis, Timothy W Russell, Malcolm G Semple, Mark Jit, W John Edmunds
Publicado en: The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Edición 21/4, 2021, Página(s) 482-492, ISSN 1473-3099
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30984-1

The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

Autores: Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Pieter J. K. Libin, Pietro Coletti, Elise Kuylen, Oana Petrof, Signe Møgelmose, James Wambua, Sereina A. Herzog, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7

Effect of manual and digital contact tracing on COVID-19 outbreaks: a study on empirical contact data

Autores: A. Barrat, C. Cattuto, M. Kivelä, S. Lehmann, J. Saramäki
Publicado en: Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Edición 18/178, 2021, ISSN 1742-5662
Editor: Journal of The Royal Society Interface
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.1000

The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant

Autores: David Hodgson, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Adam J Kucharski, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Publicado en: Eurosruveillance, 2021, ISSN 1025-496X
Editor: Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.20.2100428

SOCRATES-CoMix: a platform for timely and open-source contact mixing data during and in between COVID-19 surges and interventions in over 20 European countries

Autores: Frederik Verelst, Lisa Hermans, Sarah Vercruysse, Amy Gimma, Pietro Coletti, Jantien A. Backer, Kerry L. M. Wong, James Wambua, Kevin van Zandvoort, Lander Willem, Laurens Bogaardt, Christel Faes, Christopher I. Jarvis, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels & Niel Hens
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-02133-y

Replacement of the Gamma by the Delta variant in Brazil: Impact of lineage displacement on the ongoing pandemic

Autores: Marta Giovanetti, Vagner Fonseca, Eduan Wilkinson, Houriiyah Tegally, Emmanuel James San, Christian L Althaus, Joilson Xavier, Svetoslav Nanev Slavov, Vincent Louis Viala, Alex Ranieri Jerônimo Lima, Gabriela Ribeiro, Jayme A Souza-Neto, Heidge Fukumasu, Luiz Lehmann Coutinho, Rivaldo Venancio da Cunha, Carla Freitas, Carlos F Campelo de A e Melo, Wildo Navegantes de Araújo, Rodrigo Fabiano Do C
Publicado en: Virus evolution, 2022, ISSN 2057-1577
Editor: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/ve/veac024

Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools

Autores: Endo, Akira; Uchida, Mitsuo; Liu, Yang; Atkins, Katherine E.; Kucharski, Adam J.; Funk, Sebastian; Abbas, Kaja; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Bosse, Nikos I; Waterlow, Naomi R; Tully, Damien C; Meakin, Sophie R; Quaife, Matthew; Russell, Timothy W; Jit, Mark; Foss, Anna M; Rosello, Alicia; Quilty, Billy J; Prem, Kiesha; Knight, Gwenan M; Abbott, Sam; Klepac, Petra; Brady, Oliver; Pearson, Carl A B; Medley
Publicado en: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 0250-541X
Editor: National Academic of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203019119

Challenges in ensuring global access to COVID-19 vaccines: production, affordability, allocation, and deployment

Autores: Olivier J Wouters, Kenneth C Shadlen, Maximilian Salcher-Konrad, Andrew J Pollard, FMedSci, Heidi J Larson, Yot Teerawattananon, Mark Jit
Publicado en: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00306-8

The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

Autores: Matthew Quaife, Kevin van Zandvoort, Amy Gimma, Kashvi Shah, Nicky McCreesh, Kiesha Prem, Edwine Barasa, Daniel Mwanga, Beth Kangwana, Jessie Pinchoff, W. John Edmunds, Christopher I. Jarvis, Karen Austrian
Publicado en: BMC Medicine, Edición 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01779-4

Early Evidence of Effectiveness of Digital Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland

Autores: Marcel Salathé; Christian L. Althaus; Nanina Anderegg; Daniele Antonioli; Tala Ballouz; Edouard Bugnon; Srdjan Capkun; Dennis Jackson; Sang-Il Kim; James R. Larus; Nicola Low; Wouter Lueks; Dominik Menges; Cédric Moullet; Mathias Payer; Julien Riou; Theresa Stadler; Carmela Troncoso; Effy Vayena; Viktor von Wyl
Publicado en: Swiss Medical Weekly, 150, Edición 1, 2020, Página(s) ISSN: 1424-3997, ISSN 1424-3997
Editor: EMH Swiss Medical Publishers Ltd.
DOI: 10.7892/boris.150033

Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus

Autores: Aziz Mert Ipekci, Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Kaspar Walter Meili, Fabienne Krauer, Nirmala Prajapati, Shabnam Thapa, Lea Wildisen, Lucia Araujo-Chaveron, Lukas Baumann, Sanam Shah, Tessa Whiteley, Gonzalo Solís-García, Foteini Tsotra, Ivan Zhelyazkov, Hira Imeri, Nicola Low, Michel Jacques Counotte
Publicado en: BMC Medical Research Methodology, Edición 21/1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2288
Editor: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12874-021-01244-7

Towards a European strategy to address the COVID-19 pandemic

Autores: Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling , Simon Bauer , Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez d Sarah Cuschieri , Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis , Enrico Glaab , Eva Grill , Pirta Hotulainen , Emil N Iftekhar, Jenny Krutzinna, Christos Lionis, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins , Martin McKee, George N Pavlakis, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Barbara Prainsack, Joacim Rocklöv, Eva Schernhamme
Publicado en: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 1474-547X
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01808-0

Socio-demographic characteristics associated with COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Switzerland: longitudinal analysis of the CoMix study

Autores: Martina L Reichmuth, Leonie Heron, Julien Riou, André Moser, Anthony Hauser, Nicola Low, Christian L Althaus
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2023
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.13.23287183

Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Autores: Christian L. Althaus, Daniel Probst, Anthony Hauser, Julien Riou
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2020
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.21.20158014

Key performance indicators of COVID-19 contact tracing in Belgium from September 2020 to December 2021

Autores: Cécile Kremer, Lander Willem, Jorden Boone, Wouter Arrazola de Oñate, Naïma Hammami, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2022
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.04.22280542

Global misinformation spillovers in the online vaccination debate before and during COVID-19

Autores: Jacopo Lenti, Kyriaki Kalimeri, André Panisson, Daniela Paolotti, Michele Tizzani, Yelena Mejova, Michele Starnini
Publicado en: arXiv, 2022
Editor: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2211.11495

Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in a primary school using epidemiological and genomic data

Autores: Cécile Kremer, Andrea Torneri, Pieter J. K. Libin, Cécile Meex, Marie-Pierre Hayette, Sébastien Bontems, Keith Durkin, Maria Artesi, Vincent Bours, Philippe Lemey, Gilles Darcis, Niel Hens, Christelle Meuris
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2022
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.17.22281175

Dose-response modelling of endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2: human challenge trials reveal the individual variation in susceptibility

Autores: Fuminari Miura, Don Klinkenberg, Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2022
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2022.04.07.22273549

Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022

Autores: Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, Carl A. B. Pearson, Mark Jit, W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2021
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267858

Longitudinal social contact data analysis: insightsfrom 2 years of data collection in Belgium duringthe COVID-19 pandemic

Autores: Neilshan Loedy, Pietro Coletti, Wambua, Lisa Hermans, Lander Willem, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kerry L.M. Wong, W. John Edmunds, Alexis Robert, Quentin J. Leclerc, Amy Gimma, Geert Molenberghs, Philippe Beutels, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Publicado en: Research Square, 2023
Editor: Research Square

Who Acquires Infection from Whom? A Sensitivity Analysis of Transmission Dynamics During the Early Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Belgium

Autores: Angeli, Leonardo and Caetano, Constantino Pereira and Franco, Nicolas and Abrams, Steven and Coletti, Pietro and Van Nieuwenhuyse, Inneke and Pop, Sorin and Hens, Niel
Publicado en: 2023
Editor: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4445989

Real-time modeling and projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland.

Autores: Althaus, C.
Publicado en: 2020
Editor: ispmbern.github

Echoes through Time: Evolution of the Italian COVID-19 Vaccination Debate

Autores: Giuseppe Crupi, Yelena Mejova, Michele Tizzani, Daniela Paolotti, Andre Panisson
Publicado en: arXiv, 2022
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2204.12943

The impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on COVID-19 disease outcomes

Autores: Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Jantien Backer, Pieter de Boer, Albert Jan van Hoek, Don Klinkenberg, Hester Korthals Altes, Ka Yin Leung, Hester de Melker, Fuminari Miura, Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: MedRXiV, 2021
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.21.21265318

Living Evidence on COVID-19

Autores: COVID-19 Open Access Project, Counotte M, Imeri H, Heron L, Ipekci AM
Publicado en: 2021
Editor: ispmbern.github

Age-specific severity of SARS-CoV-2 in February 2020 – June 2021 in the Netherlands

Autores: Pieter T. de Boer, Jan van de Kassteele, Eric R.A. Vos, Liselotte van Asten, Dave A. Dongelmans, Arianne B. van Gageldonk-Lafeber, Gerco den Hartog, Agnetha Hofhuis, Fiona van der Klis, Dylan W. de Lange, Lenny Stoeldraijer, the RIVM COVID-19 epidemiology and surveillance team, Hester E. de Melker, Eveline Geubbels, Susan van den Hof, Jacco Wallinga
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2023
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.02.09.23285703

Thesis paper on the escalation model of the Swiss Epidemics Act (EpidA)

Autores: PD Dr. Christian L. Althaus, Dr. Caroline Schlaufer, Prof. Dr. Annika Frahsa, Dr. Susanne Hadorn, Prof. Dr. Fritz Sager, Prof. Dr. Marcel Zwahlen
Publicado en: 2022
Editor: Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), UBern

Impact of tiered measures on social contact and mixing patterns in Italy during the second wave of COVID-19.

Autores: Michele Tizzani, Alessandro De Gaetano, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry Wong, W John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Pietro Coletti, Daniela Paolotti
Publicado en: Research Square, 2022
Editor: Research Square
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1892693/v1

Social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic: a snapshot of post-pandemic behaviour from the CoMix study

Autores: Christopher I Jarvis, Pietro Coletti, Jantien A Backer, James D Munday, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Christian Althaus, Nicola Low, Martina Reichmuthantien, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens, W John Edmunds
Publicado en: 2023
Editor: CIMMID Github

The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study

Autores: James Wambua, Neilshan Loedy, Christopher I Jarvis, Kerry LM Wong, Christel Faes, Rok Grah, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Rene Niehus, Helen Johnson, W.John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Pietro Coletti
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2022
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.11.25.22282676

Bayesian nowcasting with Laplacian-P-splines

Autores: Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2022
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.26.22279249

EpiLPS: a fast and flexible Bayesian tool for near real-time estimation of the time-varying reproduction number

Autores: Oswaldo Gressani, Jacco Wallinga, Christian Althaus, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2021
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.02.21267189

Rapid replacement of the Beta variant by the Delta variant in South Africa

Autores: Houriiyah Tegally, Eduan Wilkinson, Christian L. Althaus, Marta Giovanetti, James Emmanuel San, Jennifer Giandhari, Sureshnee Pillay, Yeshnee Naidoo, Upasana Ramphal, Nokukhanya Msomi, Koleka Mlisana, Daniel G. Amoako, Josie Everatt, Thabo Mohale, Anele Nguni, Boitshoko Mahlangu, Noxolo Ntuli, Zamantungwa T. Khumalo, Zinhle Makatini, Nicole Wolter, Cathrine Scheepers, Arshad Ismail, Deelan Doolabh
Publicado en: MedRXiv, 2021
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.23.21264018

Importation of Alpha and Delta variants during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: phylogenetic analysis and intervention scenarios

Autores: Martina L Reichmuth, Emma B Hodcroft, Christian L Althaus
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2023
Editor: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.13.23287198

Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning vaccine protection: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Autores: Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, Mark Jit, W.John Edmunds
Publicado en: MedRxiv, 2021
Editor: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.22.21266584

Population disruption: observational study of changes in the population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Autores: Hamish Gibbs, Naomi R. Waterlow, James Cheshire, Leon Danon, Yang Liu, Chris Grundy, Adam J. Kucharski, LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Rosalind M. Eggo
Publicado en: Welcome Open Research, 2022
Editor: Welcome Open Research
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.18358.1

A linear Mixed Model to Estimate COVID-19-induced Excess Mortality

Autores: Johan Verbeeck, Christel Faes, Thomas Neyens, Niel Hens, Geert Verbeke, Patrick Deboosere, Geert Molenberghs
Publicado en: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.10.21256942

The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19

Autores: Timothy W Russell, Joseph T Wu, Sam Clifford, CMMID COVID-19 working group, W John Edmunds, Adam J. Kucharski, Mark Jit
Publicado en: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.12.20152298

On the timing of interventions to preserve hospital capacity: lessons to be learned from the Belgian SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Autores: Niel Hens, Christel Faes, Marius Gilbert
Publicado en: Acrhives of Public health, 2021, ISSN 2049-3258
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.18.20248450

Belgian COVID-19 Mortality, Excess Deaths, Number of Deaths per Million, and Infection Fatality Rates (9 March — 28 June 2020)

Autores: Geert Molenberghs, Christel Faes, Johan Verbeeck, Patrick Deboosere, Steven Abrams, Lander Willem, Jan Aerts, Heidi Theeten, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Natalia Bustos Sierra, Françoise Renard, Sereina Herzog, Patrick Lusyne, Johan Van der Heyden, Herman Van Oyen, Pierre Van Damme, Niel Hens
Publicado en: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.20.20136234

Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

Autores: James D Munday, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry LM Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Sebastian Funk, W. John Edmunds
Publicado en: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.06.21252964

A tale of two variants: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha in Geneva, Switzerland, and Beta in South Africa

Autores: Christian L. Althaus, Stephanie Baggio, Martina L. Reichmuth, Emma B. Hodcroft, Julien Riou, Richard A. Neher, Frédérique Jacquerioz, Hervé Spechbach, Julien Salamun, Pauline Vetter, Carolyn Williamson, Nei-yuan Hsiao, Wolfgang Preiser, Mary-Ann Davies, Richard J. Lessells, Tulio de Olivera, Laurent Kaiser, Isabella Eckerle
Publicado en: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Editor: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.10.21258468

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