Mortality Risk Attributable to Thermal Discomfort Indicators with Implications of Climate Change

Descripción del proyecto

Impacto del cambio climático en el riesgo de mortalidad

La termorregulación humana no es solo el resultado de la temperatura ambiente, sino también de otros parámetros ambientales como la humedad, la temperatura radiante y el viento. Determinar correctamente la relación entre la mortalidad y el entorno circundante es importante para evaluar el impacto del clima en la salud y comprender el efecto sobre los servicios sanitarios, la productividad laboral y la economía en general. El proyecto financiado con fondos europeos MORDIC atribuirá riesgos de mortalidad a varios factores de estrés térmico que no se han examinado previamente en estudios de epidemiología y de impacto sobre la salud y el clima. Los investigadores utilizarán un conjunto de indicadores de incomodidad térmica en escenarios socioeconómicos/climáticos presentes y futuros, para mejorar los datos y la modelización, aumentar la comprensión de los efectos de la exposición térmica sobre la población, informar a los servicios sanitarios y de urbanismo, y ayudar en los programas de adaptación nacional iniciados por el Gobierno.

Objetivo

A rapidly growing body of studies attribute mortality outcomes to thermal exposures, by empirically estimating reduced-form mortality responses to meteorological fields, usually ambient temperature. The research theme proposed in this project is motivated by the awareness that the human thermoregulatory system is a function of not just ambient temperature, but also other environmental parameters such as humidity, radiant temperature and wind. Correct characterization of the environment-related mortality relationship is vital not just in epidemiology, but also for climate-health impacts assessment, understanding the burden on health services, and the potential spill overs to labour productivity and the wider economy. This project will attribute mortality risk to multiple thermal stressors not previously examined in epidemiology and the wider climate-health impacts studies. The project will apply innovative approaches and for the first time, a comprehensive suite of thermal discomfort indicators, both under present climate and contrasting future socio-economic/climate scenarios. The transdisciplinary nature of the project requiring knowledge and training in subjects such as biostatistics, environmental epidemiology, human biometeorology, big data and climate modelling; will involve two-way transfer of knowledge between the researcher and the host institute. Results have the potential to: (i) improve the data and modelling approaches applied in existing environment-related morality studies at a global scale; (ii) facilitate better understanding of the population’s adaptive capacity to thermal exposures, accounting for age and gender; (iii) inform future public health responses at various national/international scales, such as urban planning, healthcare services, and investments in energy-health adaptation; and (iv) assist in government initiated National Adaptation Programmes. The project is in line with the broader EU strategy for ‘Climate, Environment and Health’.