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Taming the Uncertainty Monster: Lessons from Astrochemistry

Project description

Reducing uncertainty of models and predictions in astrochemistry

Astrochemistry is a rapidly growing field that focuses on the chemistry occurring in stars, planets and the interstellar medium. The models astrochemists use are based on extrapolated data containing many uncertainties that fail to reproduce observations. Observations are also incomplete and uncertain. Astrochemists have no choice but to develop methods to evaluate their models and decide how disagreements between the observations and models should guide future work. Funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the TUMLA project will conduct an unprecedented study to analyse and assess the trustworthiness of these methods. Until now, such a study addressing the epistemic challenges caused by uncertainties has not been conducted in any other field than climatology.

Objective

The aim of TUMLA is to provide the experienced fellow Dr. Marie Gueguen, expert in philosophy of science, additional training, skills and knowledge in the field of the philosophy of astrochemistry and model evaluation at UR1 (University of Rennes 1, France) and, through a secondment, in uncertainty management procedures in astrochemistry at the Astrophysics Laboratory of Bordeaux (LAB). This will consolidate her scientific expertise and maturity with the goal of holding a permanent academic position in France. TUMLA proposes a philosophical account of model evaluation in context of high uncertainties. The research aims to conduct an unprecedented study of the methods developed by astrochemists to assess the reliability of astrochemical models, aiming at computing the abundance of molecules in the interstellar medium or in planetary atmosphere as a function of time, despite the fact that the models and the observations against which they must be validated are highly uncertain. These uncertainties, the multiplicity of tasks that models must fill, their different phases of development—from young models that need improvement to mature ones, ready to get confronted to observations—, the strong interdisciplinarity of the field make astrochemistry unique in terms of the challenges that astrochemists must face in evaluating the accuracy of their models. Such an exceptional epistemic situation represents a huge opportunity for philosophers both to refine their understanding of model evaluation and to contribute to developing new methods for assessing the adequacy of a model. Philosophers have not addressed the epistemic challenges generated by uncertainties in science other than climate science. Considering other sciences such as astrochemistry could considerably help broaden their perspective on this topic. The aim of TUMLA is to fill this gap, such as to contribute to an overall philosophical account of model evaluation based on the contemporary practice of scientists.

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) H2020-MSCA-IF-2020

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITE DE RENNES
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 184 707,84
Address
263 AVENUE DU GENERAL LECLERC
35042 RENNES
France

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 184 707,84
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